2017-18 NBA Playoff Odds
For a few weeks, a couple of offshore sportsbooks have been teasing us with NBA playoff odds for a limited number of teams. 5Dimes, for example, only offered odds for the Timberwolves, 76ers, Pelicans, and Lakers.
Odds to make the #NBA playoffs (5Dimes)#TWolves -850#Sixers -300#Pelicans +195#Lakers +1000
— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) July 9, 2017
We now have odds for every team in the league from BetOnline. You can also see how each team’s odds compare to their win totals.
I’m surprised that the Cavaliers and Celtics aren’t closer to the Warriors, but I’m guessing the limits for these will keep your winnings to a minimum even if you want to max bet them.
There are a handful of teams that could be right around the #8 seed in their conference, with the playoff race in the western conference expected to be especially close. The first five teams are essentially locks, but there are six teams that follow whose implied probabilities range from 69.7% (Denver) to 35.7% (Utah). These teams with odds closer to an even payout on both sides are the ones that bettors can make some money on without taking a huge risk.
Depending on how you feel Anthony Davis and Demarcus Cousins will play together for a full year, there could be some value on New Orleans (Yes: +135). Personally, I don’t love the pair, but some believe that the abundance of talent will eventually outweigh any chemistry or off-court issues.
The Eastern Conference doesn’t have as large of a group of teams near the bubble, but the obvious story will be the 76ers. At -175 to make the playoffs, oddsmakers are clearly “trusting the process”. Philly is bursting at the seems with potential, but the question is whether they will be good now or in a few years. They finished with 28 wins last season, but were a much better team with Joel Embiid on the floor. If he can stay healthy, the additions of Ben Simmons, Markelle Fultz, and JJ Redick should make them a dangerous foe even if there is a learning curve. I wouldn’t be surprised if this number went into the -200 or higher range.
Check back over the offseason to see how the odds updates and analysis. Feel free to comment with any thoughts or questions below, on live chat, or via email at help@sportsinsights.com.
No Comments