Recently in our series of Bet Sharp articles, we produced an article detailing the value of betting the moneyline on small visiting dogs in the NFL. After combing through our historical database we found that betting the moneyline on road teams getting between 2.5 and 6.5 points has produced a profit of 62.26 units since 2007.
Despite a losing record of 170-240 (41.5% winning percentage), this system has yielded a 15.2% gain. So what type of rate do you need to win at in order to break even betting on moneylines? The following graph and chart details the correlation between moneyline and winning percentage that are necessary to break even.
Although our Bet Sharp article discusses the value of betting the moneyline in the NFL, typically football is a spread sport. The most commonly bet moneyline sports are hockey and baseball and often times a losing record will produce a positive units earned on the season so patience is an essential virtue for ML bettors.
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