Since the 2008-09 Bowl Season, there have been 16 total games in which the underdog was getting 30% or fewer of spread bets according to Sports Insights’ College Football Betting Trends. In those games, the underdog (team also receiving 30% or fewer spread bets) was a whopping 11-5 ATS for a winning percentage of 68.8%.
We wanted to take this trend one step further to find out how many underdogs not only covered the spread, but won on the moneyline. Of the 11 games the underdog covered, 10 of them won the game straight-up as well, with closing lines ranging from +2 to +11.5 in those games. Therefore, there was only one instance where the underdog covered, but did not win the game outright.
The 10 underdogs that won straight-up were getting an average of 5.65 points a game, which translates to a moneyline of roughly +200. This means that if you bet one unit on each of the 16 underdogs to win straight-up, you would be +14.74 units, increasing profits over 100%.
Basically, a bettor placing $100 on each underdog’s moneyline, instead of the spread, would be up $1,474 following this method.
So far this bowl season, underdogs receiving 30% or fewer of spread bets are 1-0 ATS and 1-0 SU, with Marshall winning 20-10 as a 5-point underdog to Florida International.
There are currently 11 more games this bowl season that fit the 70/30 system with underdogs getting an average of 5.72 points per game, indicating there is value for contrarian bettors.
We don’t apply any of our College Football Betting Systems to moneylines and are not recommending that you play every underdog’s moneyline that fits this system.
As a result, we will continue to focus on spread bets going forward, but this analysis does highlight the increased contrarian value that exists during bowl season.