After 162 regular season games and four post-season meetings, the Detroit Tigers and New York Yankees both face elimination tonight in the fifth and final game of the ALDS. The Tigers had an opportunity to end this series on Tuesday in Detroit, but behind an outstanding pitching performance by A.J. Burnett and a six-run eighth inning, New York was able to force this decisive game.
The betting public seems to like the combination of home field advantage and momentum that the Yankees have built, as 77% of all moneyline bets have been coming in on the “Evil Empire” despite a pitching matchup that would appear to favor Detroit.
While New York will send rookie Ivan Nova (16-4 3.70 ERA) to the mound, the Tigers will counter with a white hot Doug Fister (11-13 2.83 ERA). In fact, since his trade from the Mariners, Fister has been nearly unhittable posting an 8-1 record with a 1.79 ERA in eleven starts. Worth noting, however, is that Fister was rocked in his first post-season start surrendering six earned runs over 4 2/3 innings in a 9-3 loss. On the flip side, Nova pitched years beyond his experience giving up just two runs over 6 1/3 innings in his playoff debut.
With such a lopsided betting percentage, we have seen a great deal of line movement. The Tigers, who opened up as +138 underdogs at Bodog, have surged all the way to +158 and have settled around +150 around the sports marketplace.
The following table shows the breakdown of moneyline betting percentages from our six contributing sportsbooks: