World Series Game 6 Betting Preview
After an absolutely ridiculous game five in which the Astros and Dodgers made the steroid era look like the dead ball era, we may be crowning a champion tonight. The Dodgers and their fans have had about 36 hours to think about what went wrong the other night…I still can’t believe it. Imagine what is running through Clayton Kershaw’s head.
Give Kershaw 10 and he’s tough to beat.
— Dave Portnoy (@stoolpresidente) October 30, 2017
Instead of holding on to a 4-0 lead and heading home with a commanding 3-2 series lead, Kershaw finished the game with an ugly line that will continue to haunt his playoff reputation unless they can string together back-to-back wins.
Tonight, the Dodgers will be throwing Rich “Blister” Hill against the Astros’ trade deadline savior Justin Verlander. This game opened right around a pick ’em yesterday, but has continued to move in the Dodgers’ favor despite just 43% of bets.
At +116, I can’t blame anyone for taking Verlander and the Astros. This series has been completely unpredictable and taking either team at plus money seems like an attractive bet. However, I think the Dodgers may be in the better position despite the lack of a marquee-starter.
In game 2, Rich Hill went just four innings due to his proclivity to suck when hitters face him for a third time. With that being said, he only allowed one run in those four innings.
Everyone is available tomorrow out of the bullpen except for Clayton Kershaw and Yu Darvish. That includes Game 4 starter Alex Wood.
— J.P. Hoornstra (@jphoornstra) October 30, 2017
If Hill can put up a similar performance, they should be able to follow him with Alex Wood out of the bullpen. Wood was one of the more surprising pitchers this season and had 5.2 innings of no-hit ball before giving up a home run to George Springer. If LA can get seven innings or so out of those two pitchers, they won’t have to string together five or six relievers like they did last game to close out the game.
Also, Verlander wasn’t himself in his first start and voiced his displeasure about the different baseballs being used. According to Tom Verducci, Verlander got just one swing and miss on his slider—lowest he’s had all season. The balls are noticeably slicker according to a handful of pitchers, but what bettors probably notice is how they’re leaving the park like golf balls.
These supposed “juiced” balls have led to a record number of World Series home runs despite just five games being played and bettors expect that to carry over tonight. In PJ’s article this morning, he notes how public bettors are all over the “over”, but sharp bettors on the under have caused the line to move from 8 to 7.5.
Here are the most recent World Series MVP odds from BetOnline. All players with 10/1 odds or shorter are on the Astros. If you believe in the Dodgers, there’s plenty of value to be had on players around 20/1.
|Player||11/1 (Paddy Power)||10/31 (BetOnline)||10/25 (BetOnline)||10/24 (BetOnline)|
See you tomorrow…maybe? Let’s hope for a game 7!