World Series Game 6 Betting Preview

World Series Game 6 Betting Preview

After an absolutely ridiculous game five in which the Astros and Dodgers made the steroid era look like the dead ball era, we may be crowning a champion tonight. The Dodgers and their fans have had about 36 hours to think about what went wrong the other night…I still can’t believe it. Imagine what is running through Clayton Kershaw’s head.

Instead of holding on to a 4-0 lead and heading home with a commanding 3-2 series lead, Kershaw finished the game with an ugly line that will continue to haunt his playoff reputation unless they can string together back-to-back wins.

Tonight, the Dodgers will be throwing Rich “Blister” Hill against the Astros’ trade deadline savior Justin Verlander. This game opened right around a pick ’em yesterday, but has continued to move in the Dodgers’ favor despite just 43% of bets.

At +116, I can’t blame anyone for taking Verlander and the Astros. This series has been completely unpredictable and taking either team at plus money seems like an attractive bet. However, I think the Dodgers may be in the better position despite the lack of a marquee-starter.

In game 2, Rich Hill went just four innings due to his proclivity to suck when hitters face him for a third time. With that being said, he only allowed one run in those four innings.

If Hill can put up a similar performance, they should be able to follow him with Alex Wood out of the bullpen. Wood was one of the more surprising pitchers this season and had 5.2 innings of no-hit ball before giving up a home run to George Springer. If LA can get seven innings or so out of those two pitchers, they won’t have to string together five or six relievers like they did last game to close out the game.

Also, Verlander wasn’t himself in his first start and voiced his displeasure about the different baseballs being used. According to Tom Verducci, Verlander got just one swing and miss on his slider—lowest he’s had all season. The balls are noticeably slicker according to a handful of pitchers, but what bettors probably notice is how they’re leaving the park like golf balls.

These supposed “juiced” balls have led to a record number of World Series home runs despite just five games being played and bettors expect that to carry over tonight. In PJ’s article this morning, he notes how public bettors are all over the “over”, but sharp bettors on the under have caused the line to move from 8 to 7.5.

Here are the most recent World Series MVP odds from BetOnline.  All players with 10/1 odds or shorter are on the Astros. If you believe in the Dodgers, there’s plenty of value to be had on players around 20/1.

Player11/1 (Paddy Power)10/31 (BetOnline)10/25 (BetOnline)10/24 (BetOnline)
Joc Pederson+400N/AN/AN/A
George Springer+400+500+1600+1600
Chris Taylor+600+3300+800+800
Jose Altuve+700+200+800+500
Alex Bregman+750+275+1400+2500
Carlos Correa+1100+600+1600+2000
Cody Bellinger+1100+2000+1400+1600
Corey Seager+1100+2800+1200+1400
Lance McCullers+1300N/AN/AN/A
Alex Wood+1400N/AN/AN/A
Justin Turner+1700+1200+350+600
Yasiel Puig+2200+2000+2500+1200
Clayton Kershaw+2200+2500+300+450
Yuli Gurriel+2500+1000+3300+1600
Austin Barnes+3000N/A+5000+3300
Josh Reddick+3300+4000+5000+3300
Kenley Jansen+3300+8000+1000+1000
Yu Darvish+3300N/A+3300+2500
Dallas Keuchel+4000+10000N/A+1000
Justin Verlander+5000+1000+700+800
Rich Hill+5000+6600+2000+3300
Marwin Gonzalez+9000+2500+5000+3300
Brian McCannN/AN/A+3300+3300
Ken GilesN/AN/A+5000+2000
Charlie MortonN/AN/AN/A+5000
Curtis GrandersonN/AN/AN/A+5000

See you tomorrow…maybe? Let’s hope for a game 7!

Mark Gallant

I'm the guy who does his job. You must be the other guy.

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