Which seeds are on Upset Alert in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament?

Which seeds #1 through #7 are on highest upset alert in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament? By converting the moneylines from oddsmakers to the implied probabilities to win, we used our Bracket Simulator to find the top seeds that could do down in the opening round of the tournament.

Seed Team Moneyline Win Probability Upset Probability Bracket Simulator's Upset Probability
1 Wisconsin -4000 97.56% 2.44% 2.3%
2 Kansas -900 90.00% 10.00% 11.8%
3 Baylor -425 80.95% 19.05% 18.4%
4 Maryland -210 67.74% 32.26% 33.9%
5 West Virginia -195 66.10% 33.90% 33.9%
6 Butler +111 47.39% 52.61% 50.0%
7 VCU +136 42.37% 57.73% 57.3%

Wisconsin doesn’t really seem to be in danger of losing their opening game, but they have the “lowest” probability of all #1 seeds to get through the first round.

Kansas is by far the most susceptible to lose the opening game of all #2 seeds- all others have at least a 97% chance of advancing.

Interestingly the #6 seed Butler Bulldogs in the Midwest Region are +1.5 point underdogs to #11 seed Texas and our Bracket Simulator pits this matchup as 50/50.

VCU, the #7 seed in the West Region, is actually a 3-point underdog to #10 seed Ohio State and our Bracket Simulator agrees- Ohio State even has the best chance of all double-digit seeds to make the Final Four.

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Dan McGuire

Dan McGuire is the Operations Manager and soccer specialist at Sports Insights. He can be reached at dan.mcguire@sportsinsights.com.

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