Where’s the Sharp Money Going for Duke/UNC?

The ACC Regular Season wraps up with a thriller between Duke (#3 in ACC) and UNC (#1 in ACC). Duke has covered in 3 of the last 4 meetings between the schools including an 86-78 win less than a month ago.

Duke has failed to cover in 4 straight games this year including outright losses to Miami and Syracuse. UNC had been rolling and dominating opponents before losing at UVA last Monday.

On Friday night CRIS, one of the market-setting sportsbooks, opened UNC -6.5. Shortly after, 5Dimes also opened UNC -6.5 but Pinnacle opened UNC -7. Despite the big majority of public bettors on UNC, the line did not move until very early Saturday morning. Pinnacle actually dropped from -7 to -6.5 and CRIS moved from -6.5 to -6, indicating some sharper money on Duke. Below shows the line graph at Pinnacle since opening, showing the line and the public betting %:

More than 80% of early spread bettors were taking UNC yet the line came down by Saturday morning. Currently 57% of spread tickets are taking the Tar Heels but the market remains at -6/-6.5. Here’s a look at the spread betting breakdown at each of our 7 contributing sportsbooks, available with a Premium or Pro membership. UNC is seeing lopsided action at Carib, BetUS, and BetDSI, but ticket counts are relatively even at 5Dimes, GTBets, SIA, and Sportsbook:

Judging from the line movement and betting percentages, if you can get Duke at +7, that appears to be the sharp play tonight. Do you agree, or are you taking UNC laying the points?

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Dan McGuire

Dan McGuire is the Operations Manager and soccer specialist at Sports Insights. He can be reached at dan.mcguire@sportsinsights.com.

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