Wentz-less Eagles are the Only Team With Super Bowl Value

Wentz-less Eagles are the Only Team With Super Bowl Value

If you’re one of the over 60% of bettors who took the Eagles -10 last night, I’d imagine the last thing you’d like to read today is a blog telling you to bet the Eagles. Well, sorry.

Philly’s unimpressive victory on Monday night, along with wins by the Vikings, Rams, and Saints, has pushed the Eagles’ Super Bowl odds back to +1200, and has made them perhaps the only team with Super Bowl value.

According to FiveThirtyEight’s NFL Predictions, the Eagles, who now own home field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs, have a 19% chance to win Super Bowl LII. Their +1200 odds, however, imply only a 7.7% chance, making them the only team listed with a higher “true” probability than implied probability.

Here’s how the rest of the league stands following the penultimate week of the regular season.

TeamWestgate (12/26)Westgate (12/18)Westgate (12/11)Westgate (12/4)Westgate (11/27)Westgate (11/20)Westgate (11/13)Westgate (11/7)Westgate (10/31)Westgate (10/24)Westgate (10/17)Westgate (10/10)Westgate (10/3)Westgate (9/26)Westgate (9/19)Westgate (9/12)Westgate (9/7)BetOnline (7/15)Westgate (3/6)Westgate (1/10)
New England Patriots+180+150+200+200+220+225+300+350+350+350+400+450+500+400+350+400+275+325+450+600
Minnesota Vikings+400+600+800+600+800+1000+1400+1000+1200+1200+1600+4000+4000+2500+3000+2500+4000+3600+2000+2500
Pittsburgh Steelers+450+450+350+350+350+350+400+400+400+450+500+700+450+700+700+600+900+1200+1000+1000
New Orleans Saints+700+1000+800+1200+1600+1000+600+1000+1200+1400+2000+4000+4000+8000+10000+5000+2500+5000+6000+8000
Los Angeles Rams+900+1200+1200+1400+1400+1600+1200+1600+2000+1800+4000+8000+5000+6000+8000+8000+10000+15000+10000+10000
Philadelphia Eagles+1200+1000+1200+600+400+350+450+400+600+700+800+1600+2000+3000+3000+3000+4000+5000+5000+6000
Jacksonville Jaguars+1200+1200+1400+2500+3000+2000+2500+3500+5000+6000+10000+5000+10000+8000+10000+6000+10000+8000+8000+8000
Carolina Panthers+1800+2000+2000+3000+1600+2500+3000+2500+2500+3000+2000+1400+3000+5000+2000+2000+3000+2800+2000+2000
Kansas City Chiefs+2500+2500+3000+4000+2500+1600+1000+1000+600+800+600+600+900+1000+1400+1600+3000+2500+2000+2000
Baltimore Ravens+2500+4000+4000+8000+10000+10000+50000+20000+10000+20000+10000+8000+10000+4000+2500+4000+5000+4000+2500+2500
Atlanta Falcons+3000+1400+1400+2000+1600+3000+2500+3000+1800+1400+900+800+800+600+700+1200+1600+1000+1200+1600
Seattle Seahawks+4000+6000+1800+1200+2000+2000+1400+1200+800+1000+900+1000+1000+1200+1000+1000+800+1000+1200+1200
Los Angeles Chargers+6000+3000+1800+2500+2500+10000+20000+10000+10000+6000+8000+30000+50000+20000+10000+6000+6000+4500+6000+8000
Tennessee Titans+8000+10000+8000+4000+3000+4000+3000+3000+4000+4000+3500+5000+3000+2000+3000+4000+2000+4000+4000+4000
Buffalo Bills+20000+10000+30000+50000+30000+50000+20000+10000+5000+6000+8000+8000+8000+20000+30000+20000+20000+10000+8000+8000
Dallas CowboysN/A+6000+8000+8000+20000+6000+3000+1600+2000+2000+2500+2000+1600+800+1000+800+1200+900+800+1000
Green Bay PackersN/A+10000+4000+4000+20000+10000+8000+10000+8000+6000+3000+500+600+800+1000+700+800+850+1200+1200
Detroit LionsN/A+20000+20000+100000+10000+3000+5000+6000+10000+5000+5000+4000+2500+3000+4000+8000+10000+5000+6000+6000
Oakland RaidersN/AN/A+8000+4000+3500+8000+4000+3000+10000+2500+4000+3000+2000+1000+800+700+800+1100+1200+2000
Miami DolphinsN/AN/A+200000+200000+500000+100000+30000+30000+30000+10000+10000+20000+20000+10000+8000+10000+10000+6600+3000+4000
Cincinnati BengalsN/AN/AN/A+30000+30000+30000+100000+30000+8000+10000+8000+8000+20000+30000+20000+10000+8000+6600+4000+5000
Washington RedskinsN/AN/AN/A+200000+30000+30000+30000+10000+20000+8000+5000+8000+8000+8000+10000+20000+10000+6600+4000+5000
Arizona CardinalsN/AN/AN/A+200000+30000+100000+50000+20000+30000+30000+10000+20000+8000+10000+6000+5000+5000+3600+2000+2500
New York JetsN/AN/AN/A+200000+200000+100000+100000+30000+100000+50000+30000+30000+50000+100000+999900+200000+100000+50000+10000+10000
Houston TexansN/AN/AN/AN/A+100000+30000+30000+10000+4000+4000+3500+4000+2500+3500+8000+10000+4000+1800+4000+6000
Tampa Bay BuccaneersN/AN/AN/AN/A+500000+100000+50000+100000+20000+8000+8000+4000+3000+4000+3000+4000+4000+3300+3000+4000
Denver BroncosN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+100000+50000+20000+8000+3000+2800+1400+1400+2000+2000+4000+4000+2500+2000+2000
Chicago BearsN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+200000+50000+20000+20000+10000+20000+50000+50000+10000+50000+10000+10000+17500+10000+10000
Indianapolis ColtsN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+200000+200000+100000+100000+50000+10000+10000+20000+20000+50000+20000+10000+4000+2500+2500
New York GiantsN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+999900+50000+50000+20000+30000+10000+8000+3000+2000+1200+1600+2000+2500
Cleveland BrownsN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+999900+999900+999900+999900+999900+200000+50000+50000+30000+10000+25000+30000+30000
San Francisco 49ersN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+999900+200000+200000+100000+50000+20000+50000+50000+10000+30000+30000+30000

Despite a 21-point win on Sunday, the Patriots’ odds fell slightly from +150 to +180. If you’re late to the Pats train and still want some action on New England this postseason, I’ve got to imagine, assuming a home win against the Jets next week, this is the best price you’ll see for the rest of the year.

Over the past two weeks, Minnesota has established themselves as the NFC favorite. The Vikings control their own destiny in regards to a first round bye and will have home field advantage in the big game should they reach it. At +400, they’ve surpassed Pittsburgh’s odds, marking the first time in a month that the Steelers are not the first team listed behind New England.

Thinking about taking a long shot? You might be curious what previous Super Bowl winners’ odds were entering Week 17. Here they are dating back to 2010, courtesy of SportsOddsHistory.com:

  • 2016 Patriots: +140
  • 2015 Broncos: +800
  • 2014 Patriots: +250
  • 2013 Seahawks: +250
  • 2012 Ravens: +2000
  • 2011 Giants: +3300
  • 2010 Packers: +1200

Are we due for another dark horse winner this February? Let us know what you think by replying on Twitter to @SportsInsights or @ActionNetworkHQ.

Danny Donahue

If John Mellencamp ever wins an Oscar, I am gonna be a very rich dude. @dannyjdonahue on Twitter

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