Thanksgiving Prop Bets

Thanksgiving Prop Bets

With a few Thanksgiving games on tap tomorrow, Bovada has posted some prop bets that may catch your eye. Essentially, who will post the most yards in each category on Thursday—mini league leader props, if you will.

Passing Yards

Player11/22 (Bovada)
Kirk Cousins+250
Matthew Stafford+275
Philip Rivers+375
Case Keenum+600
Dak Prescott+600
Eli Manning+600

These odds aren’t too surprising. Kirk Cousins has thrown for the third most yards in the NFL, slightly edging out Matthew Stafford by 36 yards. However, even though their passing stats are essentially even, Cousins has a much easier matchup on paper. According to Fantasy Labs’ plus/minus tool, the Giants have allowed quarterbacks to score 4.3 more DK points than expected, while the Vikings have limited quarterbacks to 4.4 less DK points than expected.

The name I like from a value perspective is Case Keenum. Keenum has thrown for at least 280 yards in three consecutive games and won’t have to deal with temperatures in the 30s like Cousins will. He also has a decent matchup against a Detroit defense that has allowed the 13th most passing yards this year.

Receiving Yards

Player11/22 (Bovada)
Adam Thielen+500
Golden Tate+650
Dez Bryant+700
Sterling Shepard+750
Jamison Crowder+750
Keenan Allen+900
Stefon Diggs+1200
Marvin Jones Jr. +1200
Terrance Williams+1800
Vernon Davis+1800
Kyle Rudolph+2000
Kenny Golladay+2000
TJ Jones+2000
Travis Benjamin+2500
Tyrell Williams+2500
Cole Beasley+2500
Ryan Grant+2500
Eric Ebron+3300
Roger Lewis+3300
Tavares King+3300

Topping the receiving list is Adam Thielen, who has quietly become an elite receiver. He ranks second in the league in receiving yards behind Antonio Brown and has really gone off the past two weeks, with a combined 289 yards.

One name that has some value in my mind is Keenan Allen. He’s seventh in the league in receiving and 2nd of the players listed, but has the sixth best odds at +900. Philip Rivers has loved throwing the ball in his direction as of late, as Allen has 20 targets over the past two games.

Rushing Yards

Player11/22 (Bovada)
Alfred Morris+250
Melvin Gordon+275
Samaje Perine+300
Jerrick McKinnon+700
Latavius Murray+700
Orleans Darkwa+750
Ameer Abdullah+1200

If Ezekiel Elliott were playing, he’d probably have around even odds to take this one. Instead, his replacement Alfred Morris tops the list at +250. In the first game without Zeke, Morris ran the ball 11 times for 53 yards. Last week, he ran the ball 17 times for 91 yards. He should continue to see an uptick in touches given his success over the past couple weeks and if Tyron Smith plays, he may not be a bad bet.

There isn’t a ton of value on this list in my mind and I would honestly consider giving Melvin Gordon a serious look. Per Fantasy Labs’ projections, Gordon is expected to play seven more snaps than anyone else listed and 10-20 snaps more than most of the guys.

For more Thanksgiving analysis, be sure to check back later today for the ultimate Thanksgiving preview by the Action Network.

Mark Gallant

I'm the guy who does his job. You must be the other guy.

No Comments
Post a Comment

Send this to friend