Super Bowl Odds on the Move After a Whacky Week 1
Week one is in the books…time for overreactions!
|Team||Westgate (9/19)||Westgate (9/12)||Westgate (9/7)||BetOnline (7/15)||Westgate (3/6)||Westgate (1/10)|
|New England Patriots||+350||+400||+275||+325||+450||+600|
|Green Bay Packers||+1000||+700||+800||+850||+1200||+1200|
|Kansas City Chiefs||+1400||+1600||+3000||+2500||+2000||+2000|
|New York Giants||+3000||+2000||+1200||+1600||+2000||+2500|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||+3000||+4000||+4000||+3300||+3000||+4000|
|Los Angeles Rams||+8000||+8000||+10000||+15000||+10000||+10000|
|New Orleans Saints||+10000||+5000||+2500||+5000||+6000||+8000|
|Los Angeles Chargers||+10000||+6000||+6000||+4500||+6000||+8000|
|San Francisco 49ers||+50000||+50000||+10000||+30000||+30000||+30000|
|New York Jets||+999900||+200000||+100000||+50000||+10000||+10000|
The Patriots did not look good at all in their season debut and their implied odds to win the Super Bowl have taken the biggest hit. The drop from +275 to +400 represents a -6.67% swing in implied probability. The most recent simulations at Bet Labs Sports also had New England’s chances of winning the Super Bowl drop off a considerable amount, but their percentages imply that the Pats should still have approximately 3/1 odds.
Meanwhile, two of their potential AFC championship game foes have seen their odds spike up as a result of the Pats’ troubles. The Steelers have moved from +900 to +600, a +4.29% increase in implied odds. The Chiefs, who initially had moved to 14/1 the morning after their victory, end up settling in at 16/1 — a 2.65% uptick in implied odds.
In the NFC, the Cowboys’ victory over the division-rival Giants helped pushed their odds from 12/1 to 8/1 (+3.42% IP). The Ezekiel Elliott restraining order news also dropped in between the last odds update, which also probably helped a tad.
After the Packers’ defense surprisingly stymied the Seahawks, Green Bay moved from 8/1 to 7/1. I honestly felt that their win was impressive enough to put them with the Steelers at 6/1 given the caliber of their opponent, but that’s why I’m not an oddsmaker at Westgate.
With the Falcons moving from 16/1 to 12/1, the top four NFC teams are tightly packed. This week’s game between Green Bay and Atlanta will certainly serve as a barometer and if the Packers can pull off the road upset, there’s no reason why they shouldn’t distance themselves from the other three NFC frontrunners.
As for the stinkers, the Giants, Titans, Saints, and Texans have all seen substantial drop-offs thanks to their week 1 performances.
Check back in next week to see how the odds move after a slightly “less small” sample size.