In today’s AAC final between Cincinnati and SMU, we have a great case of sharp money moving the line. First, let’s see how these two teams got here.
Cincinnati, the #2 seed, took care of Tulsa and UConn in their first two games, covering both of their spreads as well. SMU, the #1 seed, had a lot of trouble in their first game against East Carolina. They were favored by 19 points, but only ended up winning by four. That poor play didn’t carry over into yesterday’s game against Central Florida, though, as they won and covered.
Today, SMU opened at -2, which would make sense given the seeding and neutral court. However, despite getting 54% of bets, SMU has gone from -2 to -1. If we look at our money percent feature, we can see why that line has moved.
Even though they are getting 54% of spread bets, they are only getting 40% of spread dollars. The larger bets are being placed on Cincinnati, helping push that line closer to a PK.
The total has very similar movement going on. Totals have been dropping all tournament season and this game is no exception. Despite almost two thirds of bets being placed on the over, the total has fallen from 129.5 to 127. Once again, if we look to our money percent feature, we can see that larger bets are being placed on the under.
With those numbers almost exact opposites of each other, it is easy to see why that total has fallen. Bettors may also be catching onto the trend of unders hitting in conference tourney finals.
Unders have hit at a 56.2% rate in NCAAB Conference Tournament Finals since 2005, including a 64% rate this year.
— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) March 12, 2017
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