Where is Sharp Money Falling in Tonight’s Duke/North Carolina Game?

The Tobacco Road Rivalry will be renewed tonight as the 8th-ranked Duke Blue Devils (19-5, 8-3 ACC) take the short trip to Chapel Hill to face off against the unranked North Carolina Tar Heels (16-7, 6-4 ACC). While Duke is currently listed as a 2-seed in Joe Lunardi’s most recent bracketology, North Carolina still has work to do and is currently listed as an 8-seed.

According to our College Basketball betting trends, the Blue Devils, led by their freshman superstar Jabari Parker, opened as 3-point favorites at CRIS. However, despite receiving 61% of spread bets the line has dropped to Duke -2 across the sports betting marketplace. This reverse line movement is an excellent sharp money indicator and suggests that wise guys and betting syndicates have been pounding the host Tar Heels.

The line graph below, which is included in all of our odds memberships, shows the line movement at CRIS since this game opened Tuesday afternoon.

(Click image to enlarge)

UNC Line Graph


Although North Carolina has won five straight games, they have struggled recently at home against Duke. The Tar Heels have lost four of their past five home games against the Devils and have failed to cover the spread in six of their past seven. The chart below, which is available on our matchups page, displays the head-to-head details from the last ten North Carolina vs. Duke meetings.

(Click image to enlarge)

h2h details
Who do you like in tonight’s matchup? Leave your thoughts or comments in the section below.


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David Solar

David Solar is the Content Manager at Sports Insights. He specializes in sports betting analytics and creating data-driven betting systems. He can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com or on twitter at @TheDavidSolar.

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3 comments on “Where is Sharp Money Falling in Tonight’s Duke/North Carolina Game?
  1. The total has dropped 2.5 points for a couple of teams that have been killing the over recently … Duke is 7-3 O/U in L10 and UNC is 5-2 L7. With a game that could be decided by a possession or two – including free throws (Duke has a huuuge edge) – I would be more comfortable with the Under tonight. How many people on the Under (%) so far?

    • The total opened at 154 at CRIS and right now 63% of bettors are on the over. Despite that, the total has dropped to 151.5 so we also have some smart money indicators on the under.

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