In a battle of underachieving teams, the New York Mets (14-16) will host the San Francisco Giants (11-20) in the opening game of a three-game series at Citi Field. This season the Giants have been the second-worst team for bettors (-9.56 units), but early line movement indicates that sharp bettors are backing San Francisco this evening.
Matt Moore will take the mound for the Giants looking to rebound from an awful start to the season. In six starts, the 27-year old lefty has gone just 1-4 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. In his most recent start, Moore was smacked around for nine earned runs in 3 1/3 innings against the Dodgers.
With Noah Syndergaard on the disabled list and Matt Harvey dealing with the fallout from his recent suspension, the Mets will send their de facto ace to the mound in the form of right-hander Jacob deGrom. This season deGrom has gone 2-1 with a 3.68 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, and 49 strikeouts in just 36 2/3 innings.
New York opened as -161 favorites at the market-setting Bookmaker.eu, and public bettors immediately looked to capitalize on this pitching mismatch. According to our public betting trends, the Mets have received 75% of moneyline tickets and 67% of moneyline dollars. Despite this one-sided public betting, the Mets have actually dropped from -161 to -147 while the Giants moved from +145 to +133. That reverse line movement indicates that sharp money has been taking the road ‘dog.
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After public money caused that early line movement, there was a Pinnacle steam move triggered on the Giants which caused the line to move from San Francisco +148 to +136. Since that time, the line has moved another three cents from San Francisco +136 to +133.
In addition to this reverse line movement, our newly added Sharp Action Report confirms our assessment. This feature, which is available to Sportsbook Insider Premium and Pro subscribers, allows members to quickly view which side the sharp money’s on and which games are the most lopsided in terms of both tickets and money.
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As you can see, the Giants have been one of the sharpest plays today while the Mets have been one of the most public sides in terms of moneyline tickets and dollars. We already encourage bettors to fade the public, follow the sharp money, and buy on bad news to capitalize on market overreactions. The Giants fit all of those criteria, which makes them one of the more intriguing potential contrarian values on the board.
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