Sharp bettors backing the Miami Marlins this evening

Sharp bettors backing the Miami Marlins this evening

In a showdown between NL East rivals, the Miami Marlins (30-37, -7.18 units) will host the Washington Nationals (42-27, +3.99 units) tonight at Marlins Park. The Nationals have a 10.5-game lead in their division and boast one of the best records in baseball, but sharp action has been taking their opponent this evening.

Tanner Roark will take the mound for the Nationals, and he has struggled recently. The 30-year-old right-hander has gone 6-4 with a 4.39 ERA and 1.36 WHIP this season, but his performance has been progressively worse in every month including a 6.27 ERA and .321 opponent batting average in June.

For the Marlins, 25-year-old lefty Justin Nicolino will make his fourth start of the season. On the season, Nicolino has gone just 0-1 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. In his most recent start on May 30th, Nicolino threw three shutout innings before exiting due to a blister on his left index finger.

Washington opened as -125 favorites at the market-setting Pinnacle sportsbook and public bettors have been hammering the chalk. The Nationals are one of the league’s most popular teams, and consistently receive the majority of public support. At the time of publication, the Nationals have received 80% of moneyline tickets at our contributing sportsbooks.

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Washington has received 80% of moneyline tickets and 84% of moneyline dollars, however, despite this one-sided public betting, the Nats have actually dropped from -125 to -108 at Pinnacle. Line movement that contradicts our public betting trends is known as reverse line movement, and it’s an excellent indicator that sharp money has been taking the Marlins as a home ‘dog.

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In addition to this reverse line movement, there have been several bet signals triggered on the Marlins which have been highlighted on the line graph. That includes smart money alerts from Carib and CRIS along with a steam move from 5Dimes.

Our newly added Sharp Action Report also confirms our assessment that sharps are backing the Marlins. This feature, which is available to Sportsbook Insider Premium and Pro subscribers, allows members to quickly view which side the sharp money is on and which games are the most lopsided in terms of both tickets and money.

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As you can see, the Marlins have been one of the sharpest plays today while the Nationals have been one of the most public sides in terms of moneyline tickets and dollars. We already encourage bettors to fade the public, follow the sharp money, and buy on bad news to capitalize on market overreactions. The Marlins fit all of those criteria, which makes them one of the more intriguing potential contrarian values on the board.

It’s also worth noting that underdogs have historically provided excellent value against divisional opponents — especially in games with high totals. The over/under for tonight’s game is fairly high at 9.5, which further validates our lean on Miami. That said, it’s important to realize the only plays we officially endorse are our Best Bets, which have gone 162-139 (+33.06 units) on the season.

Interested in checking out our new money percentages and line charts for the every MLB game? Sign up now for a 4-day trial of Sportsbook Insider Pro. In addition to the features shown in this post, subscribers also have access to our entire suite of live odds, public betting data, and in-house Best Bet picks.

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David Solar

David was the Content Manager at Sports Insights. He has since moved on to greener pastures.

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