Rare ATS Streaks Clash in College Hoops on Sunday
For those who haven’t fully submerged themselves into college basketball yet this season, Arizona State is a perfect 9-0 and ranked #5 in the nation. Not only are they winning games but they’re covering at an insane rate, going 8-1 ATS including eight straight. The only game they failed to cover was the opener against Idaho State where the Sun Devils closed -20.5 and won 94-74, off by just a half-point or else they’d be a perfect 9-0 ATS this year. Along they way they’ve knocked off quality teams like Xavier, Kansas, Kansas State and St. John’s.
On Sunday, Arizona State faces a struggling Vanderbilt squad who has gone just 3-6 SU this season. To make matters worse, the Commodores have failed to cover in all seven games that had a line available. These teams couldn’t be trending in more opposite directions:
Arizona St 8 straight ATS wins
Vanderbilt 7 straight ATS losses
In our database going back to 2005, we’ve never tracked a matchup where one team was on a 7+ game ATS win streak and the other was on a 7+ game ATS losing streak. For Sunday’s matchup against Vanderbilt, Arizona State opened -12 at BetOnline and -11.5 at Bookmaker. Guess which way the line went?
If you figured it would increase, you’re probably not alone but you’re also incorrect. This line actually went the other way, dropping to -10.5 around the market. With 76% of spread bets on Arizona State, we know that sharp money has been all over Vanderbilt at +12, +11.5 and +11.
Smart money is clearly buying low on Vanderbilt and selling high on Arizona State. For what it’s worth, since 2005 teams on 8+ ATS win streaks have gone just 76-87 ATS. When those teams play against a team on an ATS losing streak, the record is even worse at 32-45 ATS. Will smart money prevail once again with Vandy covering on the road at Arizona State?