Public Money All Over Notre Dame in Most Bet Game of the Weekend
In many of this year’s most-bet games, we’ve seen lopsided action on one spread side. That’s no different this weekend where Notre Dame/USC is receiving the highest ticket count (currently around 5,000 bet slips), and it’s also seeing heavy action on the home favorites to cover (66% on Irish). Notre Dame opened -3.5, initially moved to -4.5, but has dropped back down to -3.5. Not only are the spread bets coming in on Notre Dame at a 2:1 rate, the money wagered on the Irish is extremely lopsided– 88% of cash has taken Notre Dame to cover the spread.
But let’s take a deeper look at what’s going on, especially on the moneyline and total. Although public bettors aren’t willing to take the points with USC, they are taking the Trojans to win straight up at +155 odds. USC is getting the slight majority of moneyline bets, and more than 60% of the moneyline money. As of now, the offshore market will be rooting for a Notre Dame victory by 1, 2, or 3 points. However, there’s still tons of action that will come in on the day of the game, so you’ll want to monitor the Live Odds page for the latest lines, betting %’s, major injuries and more.
Wagering on the total has probably been the most intriguing aspect of this matchup. The O/U opened 58 at BetOnline and 59 at Pinnacle, but those have soared to 66 and 65.5 respectively. Public bettors love taking overs, but in this matchup we’re actually seeing over 60% of bets on the UNDER. Clearly sharp money has been pounding the over around the market which has moved the total up more than a touchdown. While it does look like a nice contrarian over to bet, the value is likely all but gone at this point. Based on the market movement, I’d expect a USC win 34-31.