In Wednesday’s Poinsettia Bowl, TCU opened as an 11-point favorite at Olympic and is currently garnering 70% of spread wagers, according to Sports Insights’ College Football Betting Trends.
Despite receiving only 30% of public action, Louisiana Tech has dropped to a 9.5-point underdog at the market-setting sportsbooks.
This reverse-line movement is even more impressive since the Bulldogs will be without leading-rusher Lennon Creer, who has been ruled academically ineligible to play.
Last week, our Bet Sharp series of articles highlighted the 70/30 College Football Betting System. In this article, we analyzed the past three bowl seasons and found underdogs who received 30% or fewer of spread bets went 11-5 (68.8%) against the spread (ATS).
Tuesday’s St. Petersburg Bowl was the first game of this bowl season to fit the system and saw Marshall, a 5-point underdog against Florida International, close with 30% of all spread bets.
Marshall won the game, 20-10, improving the 70/30 College Football Betting System to 12-5.
As a result, we are keeping a close eye on tonight’s game and could include Louisiana Tech as a Best Bet or Square Play, depending on how our College Football Betting System Picks react to line movement and changes in the Public Betting Trends throughout the day.
The following table shows the breakdown of spread betting percentages from our six contributing sportsbooks: