Oddsmakers Have Chosen Their Heisman Winner

Oddsmakers Have Chosen Their Heisman Winner

There’s seemingly no more room for debate in the Heisman Trophy race…at least in the eyes of oddsmakers.

Following back-to-back wins over Oklahoma State and TCU, Baker Mayfield has taken control of the race, coming in at -1500 this week at BetOnline. In terms of implied probability, that gives him a 93.75% chance of winning the award.

Mayfield was the favorite last week as well, but at -175 there was still some room to at least make an argument against him. Doesn’t look that way anymore.

Saquon Barkley’s chances took a steep hit this week, as his odds fell from +200 to +1200. Despite scoring two touchdowns, he only mustered 55 combined rushing and receiving yards against a pretty weak Rutgers team, marking the third straight game that he’s failed to eclipse 100.

Of course the main factor to Barkley’s drop was Mayfield, who threw for 333 yards and 3 touchdowns against TCU, adding another 50 yards on the ground. His performances these past two weeks have (likely) thrust the Sooners into the playoff, and have given Oklahoma the second best chance to win the national title.

It’s exactly for that reason that I see some value on J.T. Barrett this week at +2500. With Georgia losing this past weekend, a door cracked open for Ohio State to sneak into the playoffs. Assuming the Buckeyes take care of business against Illinois this week, Barrett will get to face back-to-back difficult conference opponents in Michigan and Wisconsin (the likely Big Ten Championship matchup) with a chance to send his team to the playoff. It’s a situation almost identical to where Mayfield found himself two weeks ago. If Barrett can do what Mayfield just did, why shouldn’t he re-enter the conversation?

Add in the possibility that Mayfield loses a game down the stretch, whether it be West Virginia or the Big 12 Championship, and I’ll take my chances on that +2500.