Odds to Land the NFL’s Top Head Coaching Vacancies in 2018

Odds to Land the NFL’s Top Head Coaching Vacancies in 2018

Following the annual “Black Monday” NFL tradition, a handful of teams cut ties with their head coaches and now have openings to fill for the 2018 season. In response, Bookmaker.eu has posted odds regarding the most-likely candidates to take over in New York, Chicago, Detroit and Indianapolis next season.

New York Giants

After letting go of Ben McAdoo in early December, the New York Giants are one of many teams looking for a new head coach this offseason.

Coach1/2 (Bookmaker)1/1 (Bookmaker)
Josh McDaniels+504+200
Jim Schwartz+504+300
Steve Wilks+813+900
Matt Patricia+962+800
Mike Shula+1013+800
Mike Munchak+1218 +1200
Mike Smith+15000+15000
Brian Kelly+20000+2000
Nick Saban+50000+50000

The New England Patriots’ Josh McDaniels is one of the favorites to take over the lead role for the Giants in 2018. McDaniels has shown plenty of value during his time with the Patriots, helping them win Super Bowls and stay hated by the general public. His phone should be ringing off the hook this offseason with tons of teams looking for new head coaches. Just yesterday, Bookmaker had McDaniels as a +200 favorite, but overnight, the odds changed to +504, cutting his implied probability in half (33.33% to 16.56%.)

Chicago Bears

Following three straight last place finishes under John Fox, the Bears parted ways with their head coach. Fox went 14-34 in his three years in Chicago, never winning more than six games in a season. With the Bears now in search of a new play caller, let’s take a look at the leading candidates for the position.

Coach1/2 (Bookmaker)
Josh McDaniels+604
Pat Shurmur+604
Frank Reich+806
David Shaw+907
Dave Toub+1111
Mike Shula+1213
Todd Haley+1519
Jim Bob Cooter+1519

Shocker. Josh McDaniels finds himself at the top of yet another coaching list. Alongside him, however, is current Vikings’ offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur.

Shurmur has a history of working with young quarterbacks including Donovan McNabb, Colt McCoy, and most recently, Nick Foles. As a second-year quarterback in 2013, Foles threw for 27 touchdowns and just two2 interceptions with Shurmur as his offensive coordinator, posting the third-highest passer rating in NFL history.

If only the Bears had a quarterback entering his second year for Shurmur to mentor.

Detroit Lions

During four seasons in Detroit, Caldwell went 36-28 straight up and 30-33-1 against the spread. The Lions made the playoffs twice in that span, but failed to win a postseason game.

Coach1/1 (Bookmaker)
Matt Patricia +430
Steve Wilks+825
Mike Vrabel+935
Teryl Austin+1585
Dave Toub+1920
Mike Smith+2150

Of the four teams with coaching odds posted at Bookmaker, Matt Patricia is most likely to land in Motown. It looks like the Pats may have another Romeo Crennel/Charlie Weis situation on their hands, as both coordinators could be on the way out this offseason.

Indianapolis Colts

The Chuck Pagano era has come to an end, as the Colts gave him the boot after a 4-12 season. While he had some bad luck this year with Andrew Luck going down, this marked the third consecutive season that Indy has missed the playoffs. Not exactly the outcome Colts fans were expecting if you had asked them back when Luck was looking like the next Peyton Manning.

Following three 11-5 seasons, Pagano went 8-8 in both 2015 and 2016 before an ugly 2017. Despite the underwhelming records straight up, the Colts essentially met oddsmakers’ expectations, going 23-24-1 against the spread over that stretch.

Coach1/2 (Bookmaker)1/1 (Bookmaker)
Josh McDaniels+805+800
David Shaw+907+900
Todd Haley+907+900
Frank Reich+957+950
Pat Shurmur+1211+1200
Tom Cable+1211+1200
Jim Harbaugh+1517+1500
Dave Toub+1517+1500
Matt Nagy+2030+2000

Unlike some of the other coaching vacancies, there isn’t one particular name with great odds to take over for Pagano. As he is for basically every other open job, Josh McDaniels is the favorite to become the Colts’ next head coach.

Keep in mind that the “field” is -205, so it’s more likely than not that someone not listed will get the gig.

Photo via Chuck Cook – USA Today Sports

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