As detailed in our 2011 NHL Betting Against the Public article, our historical data has found a terrific return on investment betting against the public — specifically on teams receiving less than 35% of moneyline wagers.
That same article also revealed that visiting teams are undervalued, so what happens when we combine these two philosophies? And more importantly, what happens when we become more selective and filter our road teams even further?
Since 2006, visiting teams receiving less than 25% of public bets have gone just 310-497, but because hockey is a moneyline sport and the public tends to pound favorites, that system has won 94.31 units.
Furthermore, we have found that this system is particularly profitable in the months of January and February where it has tallied a 90-126 record with an astounding 50.29 units earned. That computes to a staggering 23.28% return on investment.
The following chart shows the performance of this system since January of 2006:
At the time of publishing, the only game that fit this system was tonight’s matchup between the Lightning and Capitals. Tampa Bay (+165 at the market-setting Cris sportsbook) is receiving just 19% of moneyline wagers as a road underdog, making it a potential Best Bet this evening.
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