We’re almost halfway through the NFL season, and the playoff picture is starting to become clearer as the pretenders separate from the contenders. This is also the time where preseason expectations have been thrown out the window and bettors are able to identify top teams based on the merits of their current season performance.
The table below shows the look ahead lines from April via CG Technology compared to the opening and current odds at CRIS. Each week we’ll examine the biggest moves and analyze how oddsmakers’ expectations have changed since the offseason.
|Matchup||Current (10/27)||Opener (10/25)||Lookahead (April 25)|
|MIA at NE||NE -7.5||NE -8||NE -5.5|
|DET vs. KC*||KC -6||KC -5.5||DET -1|
|MIN at CHI||MIN -2.5||MIN -1||CHI -2|
|TB at ATL||ATL -7.5||ATL -7||ATL -5.5|
|NYG at NO||NO -3||NO -3.5||NO -2|
|SF at STL||STL -9||STL -7.5||STL -1|
|ARI at CLE||OFF BOARD||OFF BOARD||ARI -3 (With McCown)|
|CIN at PIT||OFF BOARD||OFF BOARD||PIT -3 (With Roethlisberger)|
|SD at BAL||BAL -3.5||BAL -3.5||BAL -3.5|
|TEN at HOU||OFF BOARD||OFF BOARD||HOU -7 (With Mariota)|
|NYJ at OAK||NYJ -2||NYJ -1.5||PICK 'EM|
|SEA at DAL||SEA -6||SEA -5||SEA -1.5 (With Romo)|
|GB at DEN||GB -3||PICK 'EM||DEN -1.5|
|IND at CAR||CAR -7||CAR -6.5||IND -1|
There are currently three games off the board due to injured quarterbacks with their backup listed in parenthesis.
- Arizona/Cleveland: Josh McCown, Questionable, Shoulder (Johnny Manziel)
- Cincinnati/Pittsburgh: Ben Roethlisberger, Questionable, Knee (Landry Jones)
- Tennessee/Houston: Marcus Mariota, Knee, Questionable (Zach Mettenberger)
The biggest discrepancy between the preseason odds from CG Technology and the current odds from CRIS involves this week’s Monday Night game. Before the season started Indianapolis was listed as a 1-point road favorite against Carolina, however, things have changed tremendously since then.
Andrew Luck and company are sitting on a losing record (3-4) while Carolina remains one of just five undefeated teams. The Panthers opened as 6.5-point favorites and have received 62% of early spread bets. This public support has moved Carolina from -6.5 to -7.
The most interesting game of the week involves two undefeated teams, with the Broncos hosting the Packers. This marquee matchup opened as a pick ’em, Green Bay has moved to -3 in early betting. This could be partially due to public money since 81% of spread bettors have taken the Pack.
These numbers are subject to change throughout the week, so bettors should be sure to bookmark our free NFL odds page for updates lines, betting trends, injuries, futures and more.