NFL Week 5 Betting Recap

– This week we saw another blowout in the Thursday Night Football game with Green Bay defeating Minnesota 42-10. The average margin of victory in Thursday games this year is now 29 ppg.

– Following New England’s impressive victory on Sunday night, Tom Brady is 26-9 against the spread (ATS) following a loss. He’s also 8-0 ATS when getting less than 40% of spread bets.

– Since 2003 Brady has also been the most profitable quarterback to bet on with a 97-63 ATS record and +31 units won. Peyton Manning (90-66, +20.8 units) is second on the list.

– The Patriots, who were 1-point underdogs against the Bengals on Sunday night, have gone 17-8-2 ATS (+8.6 units) and 14-13 (+8.8 units) as moneyline dogs dating back to ’03.

– Last week’s most bet NFL games:

  1. Bengals-Patriots
  2. Jets-Chargers
  3. Cardinals-Broncos
  4. Bills-Lions

– Some of the most notable line moves on Sunday morning included:

  1. Bills +6.5 to +5.5 (won straight up 17-14)
  2. Bengals -1 to -2.5 (lost 43-17)
  3. Browns +1 to -1 (won 29-28)

– Pro’s versus Joe’s via Todd Fuhrman (@ToddFuhrman) — Note: Some of these lines were bet early in the week and were not available on Sunday.

PROS  Rams, Texans, Bills, Ravens, Jets

JOES: Bears, Eagles, Saints, Steelers, Chargers

– The biggest line moves from open to close include: (via Pinnacle)

  1. St. Louis +7 to +3.5
  2. Buffalo +7 to +4.5
  3. Cincinnati pick ’em to -2.5
  4. Cleveland +1 to -1

– The early games were insanely competitive as all nine 1 o’clock games were within 1 score (including four ties) with less than 2 minutes remaining.

– In Week 5 favorites went 10-4 ATS pushing them to 37-36 on the season. Home teams went 9-5 ATS during Week 5 and are now 37-35 on the season. Teams coming off a loss went 6-7 ATS in Week 5 and have dropped to 29-27 on the year.

– Unders went 8-7 during Week 5 but on the season the under has gone just 36-40.

– Key injuries to monitor this week:

  1. Lions WR Calvin Johnson, Ankle, Doubtful
  2. Broncos RB Montee Ball, Groin, Out Indefinitely
  3. Cardinals QB Carson Palmer, Shoulder, Questionable
  4. Titans QB Jake Locker, Hand, Questionable
  5. Rams RB Zac Stacy, Calf, Questionable
  6. Lions RB Reggie Bush, Ankle, Questionable
  7. Saints TE Jimmy Graham, Shoulder, Questionable
  8. Vikings QB Teddy Bridgewater, Ankle, Probable
  9. Giants RB Rashad Jennings, Knee, Out
  10. Patriots CB Darrelle Revis, Hamstring, Probable
  11. Cardinals CB Patrick Peterson, Ankle, Probable
  12. 49ers TE Vernon Davis, Back, Questionable

– Notable Week 6 lines include: (via Pinnacle)

  1. Green Bay Packers (-3.5) at Miami Dolphins
  2. Carolina Panthers at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5)
  3. Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)
  4. Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks (-8)
  5. New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)
  6. San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) at St. Louis Rams

 – For the latest odds, public betting trends and more, make sure to view our free NFL odds page.  

– Most likely Super Bowl matchups (via 5Dimes)

  1. DEN/SEA +671
  2. SD/SEA +1640
  3. DEN/GB +1835
  4. NE/SEA +1900
  5. CIN/SEA +1940
  6. DEN/SF +1940
  7. DEN/PHI +2875
  8. IND/SEA +3125
  9. DEN/NO +3875
  10. SD/GB +4275

– Entering the week the favorites for Offensive Rookie of the Year at Bovada was highlighted by: Kelvin Benjamin (+250), Brandon Cooks (+300), Blake Bortles (+400), Teddy Bridgewater (+600) and Sammy Watkins (+750).

– In early Week 6 action the most popular public teams were:

  1. Denver Broncos -8 (83% of spread bets at New York Jets)
  2. San Diego Chargers -7 (80% of spread bets at Oakland Raiders)
  3. New England Patriots -3 (78% of spread bets at Buffalo)
  4. Indianapolis Colts -2.5 (77% of spread bets at Houston Texans)

– Before the start of the season we tweeted the following prop bet:

– Through five games, Manning has tallied 12 passing touchdowns bringing his career total to 503. That means Manning needs just five touchdowns over the next three games for bettors to cash on the under (+110).

– Have any questions for the staff at Sports Insights? Make sure to leave your thoughts and opinions in the comment section below or e-mail us at help@sportsinsights.com.

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David Solar

David Solar has been the Content Manager at Sports Insights for over four years. He specializes in sports betting analytics and has created several popular data-driven betting systems. He can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com or on twitter at @TheDavidSolar.

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