NFL Week 16 Early Action Report: Sharps on Jimmy G, Bryce Petty, More
This is it. The final week of the 2017 regular season in which we won’t be seeing backup quarterbacks, third-string players, and teams not trying…oh wait, we’ve seen that every week this season. Nevermind.
|Matchup||Bookmaker Current||Bookmaker Open||Westgate (12/12)|
|IND @ BAL (Sat)||BAL -13.5||BAL -13.5||BAL -10|
|MIN @ GB (Sat)||MIN -9||MIN -9||N/A|
|DET @ CIN||DET -5||DET -3.5||PK|
|LAC @ NYJ||LAC -6.5||LAC -7||LAC -10.5|
|LAR @ TEN||LAR -6.5||LAR -7||LAR -3|
|CLE @ CHI||CHI -6.5||CHI -7||CHI -7|
|TB @ CAR||CAR -10||CAR -10||CAR -9|
|ATL @ NO||NO -5.5||NO -5.5||NO -4.5|
|DEN @ WAS||WAS -3.5||WAS -4||WAS -5|
|MIA @ KC||KC -10||KC -10||KC -7.5|
|BUF @ NE||NE -11.5||NE -13||N/A|
|JAX @ SF||JAX -4||JAX -5.5||JAX -5.5|
|NYG @ ARI||ARI -3.5||ARI -4.5||ARI -7|
|SEA @ DAL||DAL -4.5||DAL -4.5||DAL -3|
|PIT @ HOU (Mon)||PIT -9.5||PIT -10||PIT -8|
|OAK @ PHI (Mon)||PHI -9||PHI -9||PHI -7.5|
Jaguars at 49ers: Jimmy Garoppolo is looking like one hell of a quarterback. I still can’t believe my beloved Patriots only got a 2nd-rounder in return. You can go ahead and ask the Browns, quarterbacks don’t grow on trees and a young QB who’s proven that he can play at least a teeny bit is worth more than basically any other asset. With Jimmy G leading the 49ers to three straight wins, early money is backing San Fran despite the Jaguars’ strong defense.
We’ve also triggered two bet signals on the 49ers from two of the sharpest books on the market: Pinnacle and Buckeye. The line hasn’t moved through or reached any numbers of significance, but if we continue to see this type of action, +3 is in play.
Chargers at Jets: Reverse line movement on Bryce Petty and the Jets? Never thought I’d say that, but here we are.
After bettors who braved the Jets in New Orleans covered on Sunday, it would appear as if some sharp bettors went back to the well and snagged the Jets plus a touchdown. In the wee hours of the morning, they moved off the key number of +7 and down to +6.5. I’d be willing to bet that we see this line return back to seven at some point, as Chargers buyback seems imminent.
81% on Lions (-5) at Bengals: You know what’s a good way to get the public to fade you? Lose your previous game by 27 points. After coming off a big loss to the Vikings, bettors have given up on the Bengals. With just 16.6 points per game, Andy Dalton’s offense is nowhere close to as fiery as his hair. And if you can’t score, people won’t bet on you.
78% on Rams (-6.5) at Titans: You know what’s a good way to get the public to bet on you? Beat the Seahawks in their own house by 35 points. Though the public is all over the 9-5 ATS Rams, they quickly moved from -7 to -6.5 after opening.
69% on Dallas (-4.5) vs. Seattle: You know what’s a….you know the rest. The Seahawks looked like, to quote Keith LeBlanc, “a pile of garbage” against the Rams. After seeing what Todd Gurley did to their defense, bettors are expecting Ezekiel Elliott to do the same thing in his return.
82% on Jaguars/49ers over (42.5): Jimmy G! The hype is still real since you last read about him a couple of minutes ago. Though the public isn’t completely sold on taking the 49ers +4, they are sold on taking over 42.5 points. The 49ers have won all three games with Garoppolo starting and he’s played great, but they haven’t exactly been an offensive juggernaut, averaging 22 points per game. They’ll have an incredibly difficult test against the best defense in the league.
73% on Giants/Cardinals over (39.5): Not Carson Palmer, not Blaine Gabbert…Drew Stanton! The lifelong backup quarterback was given the nod for his third start this season and 18th of his career. Sporting a 66.3 QB rating, the over has gone just 5-11-1 in his starts. With that said, 64% of dollars are actually on the under and the total has gone from 40.5 to 39.5 since opening.
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