NFL Week 11 Opening Line Report

We’re nearly through 10 weeks into the 2015 NFL season with Houston-Cincinnati capping it off Monday night, as the Bengals look to be the third 9-0 team heading into Week 11 (Patriots, Panthers).

As we’ve done throughout the year, below we’ve compared the lookahead lines from the summer at CG Technology to the opening and current odds at Pinnacle:

Matchup Current Line (11/16) Opening Line (11/15) Look Ahead (4/25)
TEN at JAX JAX -3 JAX -3 JAX -1.5
IND at ATL ATL -6 ATL -6 IND -2 (w/Luck)
WAS at CAR CAR -7.5 CAR -7.5 CAR -5
CIN at ARZ OFF BOARD OFF BOARD ARZ -3
SF at SEA OFF BOARD OFF BOARD SEA -5.5 (w/Kaepernick)
NYJ at HOU OFF BOARD OFF BOARD HOU -5
KC at SD KC -3 KC -3.5 SD -2.5
DAL at MIA MIA -1 DAL -1.5 MIA -1 (w/Romo)
STL at BAL BAL -1 STL -1 BAL -3.5
TB at PHI OFF BOARD OFF BOARD PHI -8.5 (w/Bradford)
DEN at CHI OFF BOARD OFF BOARD DEN -2.5 (w/Manning)
OAK at DET OAK -1 OAK -1.5 DET -8.5
GB at MIN MIN -1 GB -1 GB -3
BUF at NE NE -7.5 NE -7.5 NE -5.5

The first game that jumps out is Colts-Falcons. Last April the Colts were expected to be slight road favorites but their decline along with Andrew Luck’s injury now has the line at Atlanta -6. Even though Indy will turn to QB Matt Hasselbeck, 2/3 of early bets are coming in on the Colts, showing the little faith bettors have on Atlanta following their loss to San Fran.

Another game with significant movement is Chiefs-Chargers. Kansas City now has a record of 4-5 after three straight wins, and are field goal favorites in San Diego. To no surprise KC is getting the bulk of early bets which may push the line to KC -3.5.

Even with the Lions coming off a big road win against Green Bay, they opened +1 at home against Oakland. Early bettors still aren’t convinced on the Lions, with 3/4 of early bets coming in on the Raiders.

Games currently off the board awaiting more QB news are: Tampa Bay-Philly (Sam Bradford out), Denver-Chicago (Peyton Manning out), San Francisco-Seattle (Kaepernick or Gabbert for SF), and NYJ-Houston (Jets expected to start Fitzpatrick after thumb surgery).

Keep up with all the latest line moves, openers, betting percentages, major injuries and more at our Free Live Odds page.

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Dan McGuire

Dan McGuire is the Operations Manager and soccer specialist at Sports Insights. He can be reached at dan.mcguire@sportsinsights.com.

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