NFL Thanksgiving Betting Guide: Sharp Money, DFS Dice Rolls, And More

NFL Thanksgiving Betting Guide: Sharp Money, DFS Dice Rolls, And More

Thanksgiving is about food, family and, most importantly, football. So we tapped into our resources here at The Action Network to compile all the relevant betting data, profitable historical trends, cutting-edge DFS analysis, and a prediction from our one-named expert Stuckey.

Here’s to hoping your Thanksgiving Day is both bountiful and profitable.

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Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (12:30 p.m. ET)

The betting market

Open: pick’em | Current: Vikings -3

The first game of the day features some significant steam. At Bookmaker, this game opened as a pick ‘em, but bettors pounded the Vikings in the early going. The line reached MIN -3 by Monday evening thanks to both sharp and public action. Minnesota has remained on the key number of three over the past couple days. — Mark Gallant

DFS dice roll

Lions WR Kenny Golladay ($3,800 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel)

Golladay has a reception of 40-plus yards in each game since his hamstring-induced layoff, and he played the majority of offensive snaps last week. He’ll likely avoid the Vikings’ two best cornerbacks, Xavier Rhodes and Terence Newman, instead drawing Trae Waynes. Only four players have allowed more receptions (43) and yards receiving (537) than Waynes. With prototypical size (6’4” and 218 pounds) and good athleticism (4.5-second 40), Golladay has multi-touchdown upside. — Matthew Freedman

Expert pick

The Lions are 3-0 on Turkey Day under Jim Caldwell, and have been great a racking up hidden points in the kicking and return game this season. Detroit remains undervalued after being on the unlucky side of a few close games: They’re just a few yards from being 8-2. If that was the case, do you really think they’d be laying points at home? — Stuckey

Los Angeles Chargers at Dallas Cowboys (4:30 p.m. ET)

The betting market

Open: Cowboys -1 | Current: Chargers -2

Dallas received some good news earlier today when left tackle Tyron Smith said he would be playing. However, this line is still way off the early line of DAL -4 set by Westgate last week. With the bets almost split (see chart below), one has to wonder if that line will flip back in Dallas’s favor before kickoff. — Mark Gallant

DFS dice roll

Chargers RB Austin Ekeler ($4,200 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel)

An underrated small-school superstar, Ekeler has played only 35.0 percent of the snaps over the past four games, but he’s averaged 6.3 carries and three targets in those contests for an efficient 60.5 yards, three receptions, and one touchdown per game. Melvin Gordon investors are unlikely to stack him with his change-of-pace rookie teammate, so Ekeler will be a contrarian play. Even in a minor role Ekeler could have major production against the Sean Lee-less Cowboys. — Matthew Freedman

Expert pick

The value has really been sucked out of the Chargers, but with LT Tyron Smith (back/groin) and RT La’el Collins (back) both gimpy, you almost have to play L.A. as long as the line stays under 3. — Stuckey

New York Giants at Washington Redskins (8:30 p.m. ET)

The betting market

Open: Redskins -7.5 | Current: Redskins -7

The nightcap, in which plenty of alcohol-driven bets will be placed, features the Giants and Redskins in what is currently the most lopsided of the three games (see chart below). Washington has gone from -7.5 to -7 at Bookmaker since opening, but the line has yet to drop below a touchdown. Will the sharps continue to ride the enigmatic Giants and push the line to 6.5? — Mark Gallant

Trend to know

In late season (November and December) games between divisional opponents, ‘unders’ are 150-90-3 (62.5%) since 2005 when the total closes above 44. The current number for this game is 44.5, so be sure to monitor if you’re considering a play on the over/under. — John Ewing

DFS dice roll

Redskins WR Ryan Grant ($3,700 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel)

With Jamison Crowder and Josh Doctson likely to be popular stacking partners with Kirk Cousins, Grant will have reduced ownership even though over Washington’s past five games he has a 17/180/1 receiving line compared to Doctson’s 15/210/1. — Matthew Freedman

Expert pick

This is a stay-away for me, but anything more than Redskins -7 feels too high. — Stuckey

1 Comment
  • Tim
    11/23/2017 at 9:30 am

    Stuckey is an expert at what, losing money?

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