NFL Betting, DFS Angles for Every Week 14 Game

NFL Betting, DFS Angles for Every Week 14 Game

If you live for the nail-biters, this is the Sunday for you. Fourteen games, no spreads of more than a touchdown.

In our weekly effort to make your life less like Sponge Bob’s and more like Leo’s, our expert crew studied every Week 14 game in detail so you didn’t have to.

Read up. You’ll thank us later.

If there’s a specific matchup you want to jump to, click the quick links below. All info is as of Sunday morning.

MIN-CAR | OAK-KC | DAL-NYG | CHI-CIN | SF-HOU | GB-CLE | IND-BUF | DET-TB | WAS-LAC | TEN-ARI | NYJ-DEN | PHI-LAR | SEA-JAC | BAL-PIT


 

VIKINGS (-2.5) AT PANTHERS  |  O/U: 40

1 p.m. ET | CBS

Betting market: Public money has been all over Minnesota this week, moving the line from an opener of Vikings -1 all the way up to -3 at one point. Wiseguys clearly saw the shift as an overreaction, buying back on the Panthers at +3. They’ll likely continue to do so if it becomes available again. — PJ Walsh

Trend to know: Cam Newton and Ron Rivera are 28-19 (59.6%) ATS as underdogs. The +$782 ROI (based on $100 bets) makes them the third-most profitable coach/QB combo in this spot since Newton entered the league in 2011. — John Ewing

Pass or play? Play Carolina, if the line hits +3 again. — Stuckey

Editor’s note: A previous version of this story stated that NFL teams were 14-26 straight up and 13-25-2 ATS in their third-consecutive road games. That was incorrect and has been edited from the piece.


 

RAIDERS AT CHIEFS (-4)  |  O/U: 48.5

1 p.m. ET | CBS

DFS edge: Amari Cooper has cleared the concussion protocol, but he’s probable to play through an ankle injury. Cooper and Michael Crabtree will both have plenty of opportunity to post big numbers against a Chiefs defense allowing the second-most DraftKings PPG to opposing wide receiver units this season. K.C. will also be without suspended No. 1 corner Marcus Peters, so the duo should face a combination of 32-year-old Darrelle Revis and the ever-burnable Terrance Mitchell. — Ian Hartitz

What the metrics say: Derek Carr should have all day to throw behind an offensive line that ranks sixth in adjusted sack rate. The Chiefs defense has struggled to consistently generate pressure all season (27th in adjusted sack rate). — Stuckey

Pass or play? Pass. Line seems fair. These are two of the NFL’s worst defenses. The Chiefs should be fully motivated with their season on the line. — Stuckey


 

COWBOYS (-3.5) AT GIANTS  |  O/U: 41.5

1 p.m. ET | FOX

Betting market: Before Giants coach Ben McAdoo and GM Jerry Reese got fired, the books had Dallas listed as 6.5-point road favorites. Since the announcement and Eli Manning’s ensuing reinstatement as the Giants starting quarterback, sharps steamed the line down Cowboys -3.5. The public is still backing Dallas (see chart below). — PJ Walsh

Trends to know: Since 2003, the Cowboys are just 17-32-2 (34.7%) ATS as a favorite when the line moves against them, as is the case here. —John Ewing

Injuries to watch: Dez Bryant may have cracked a smile while checking out the Giants injury report, as the defense could be without CB Eli Apple (hip/back, questionable) in addition to No. 1 corner Janoris Jenkins (ankle, IR). The Giants offense is also in trouble with both WR Sterling Shepard (hamstring, questionable) and RB Orleans Darkwa (illness, questionable) potentially unavailable against a Cowboys defense expected to welcome back all-world LB Sean Lee (hamstring, not listed). One key injury for Dallas:  David Irving, PFF’s eighth-best pass-rushing DT, is doubtful with a concussion. The Cowboys expect both LT Tyron Smith (back, questionable) and RT La’el Collins (back, questionable) to play Sunday. — Ian Hartitz

Pass or play? Pass. The Cowboys are getting healthier in the trenches on both sides of the ball, but you know the Giants will be fully motivated here with Eli back under center and a new coach on the sideline. — Stuckey


 

BEARS AT BENGALS (-6.5)  |  O/U: 39

1 p.m. ET | FOX

Did you know? Andy Dalton is the fourth-most profitable QB of the past 10 seasons when playing sub-.500 opponents (25-14-3 ATS record). That improves to 16-8-2 ATS when Dalton faces sub-.500 teams outside of the AFC North. — Evan Abrams

DFS edge: The Bengals are expected to be without Joe Mixon (concussion, questionable) in addition to Jeremy Hill (ankle, IR), setting up Giovani Bernard for his first career game as the team’s featured back. Near-minimum salaries across the DFS industry will likely leave Gio among the chalkiest players on the slate. Still, a robust workload could prove electric considering he leads the Bengals in yards per carry and ranks seventh among all running backs in yards per reception. He gets a Bears defense that has allowed an additional 7.9 real PPG away from Soldier Field since 2016. — Ian Hartitz

Pass or play? Pass. I’m not sure how Cincy will respond on a short week after a collapse against Pittsburgh essentially ended the Bengals season. And I definitely want no part of the Bears on the road. — Stuckey


 

49ERS AT TEXANS (-1)  |  O/U: 45.5

1 p.m. ET | FOX

Betting market: Sixty-six percent of the dollars wagered are backing the Texans this week, which is a bit surprising considering the Jimmy Garoppolo hype in San Francisco. This one-sided action pushed the line from Houston -1 to -2.5 at Bookmaker.eu as of Saturday afternoon, before the spread moved back down to -1 on game day. — PJ Walsh

DFS edge: Although his fantasy production underwhelmed in his first start with the 49ers, Garoppolo had a promising performance last week on the road against the Bears, completing 70.3 percent of his 37 passes for 293 yards. The 49ers play at the league’s fastest pace (24.99 seconds per play) and have the highest passing rate (63.5 percent). They face a Texans defense that has allowed top-two fantasy marks to quarterbacks with 21.4 DraftKings and 19.9 FanDuel PPG. On the Week 14 Daily Fantasy Flex pod, my bold call was that Garoppolo will have a 300-yard/three-touchdown outing against the Texans. He’s in a #SmashSpot. — Matthew Freedman

Injuries to watch: Will Fuller (ribs, not listed on final injury report) practiced all week and will play for the first time since Week 10, but the outlook isn’t as good for fellow weapons Bruce Ellington (hamstring, IR), C.J. Fiedorowicz (concussion, IR), Braxton Miller (concussion, out), and Alfred Blue (concussion, out). The defense will have PFF’s No. 24 overall corner Johnathan Joseph (shoulder, not listed) for their matchup against Jimmy Garoppolo and the 49ers. — Ian Hartitz

Pass or play? Pass. There’s some new-found energy in the San Fran locker room since Jimmy G became the starter. As Kyle Juszczyk said, “It feels like a whole new season here. It feels like we started last week.” But I’m not in a hurry to bet a team that has only won one road game in each of the past three seasons. — Stuckey


 

PACKERS (-3) AT BROWNS  |  O/U: 39

1 p.m. ET | FOX

Betting market: Back to the well! The Browns are once again one of the favorite sharp plays, according to our Sharp Action Report. This game opened at Packers -4, and despite the large majority of the tickets being on Green Bay (see chart below), big bets from professional players have moved this line down to juiced-up -3 in most places. — PJ Walsh

Weather report: According to our weather data, the forecast in Cleveland calls for a diagonal cross-breeze of 18 mph and temperatures hovering around freezing throughout the game. Since 2003, in games when the wind is blowing 10 mph or stronger, the under is 435-347-10 (55.6%). — PJ Walsh and John Ewing

DFS edge: Browns WR Josh Gordon converted his 11 targets against the Chargers into a 4-85-0 line in his first game since 2014. He accomplished this vs. PFF’s No. 1 cornerback Casey Hayward, who said afterward that Gordon was his “toughest matchup all year.” Next up is a date with the Packers’ 29th-ranked defense in DVOA against WR1s. Green Bay has allowed the most DraftKings PPG, highest Plus/Minus, and highest Consistency Rating to opposing wide receiver units this season (per FantasyLabs’ Trends tool). — Ian Hartitz

Did you know? Sunday will mark 729 days since the Browns last won on a Sunday. They’re 0-29 on football’s most holy day and have only covered the seven times during that span. — Evan Abrams

Pass or play? Play Browns +3. Green Bay won’t be able to move the ball on the ground against Cleveland, which leads the NFL in rush yards per carry allowed at 3.3. So the Pack will rely on Brett Hundley to win the game. That’s not a recipe for success when you’re playing on the road and dealing with crosswinds. Hundley could only manage 3.8 yards per attempt last week vs. the Bucs’ putrid pass D. Look for Josh Gordon to have an enormous day, especially now with Packers CB Kevin King on IR. Cleveland gets its first win of the season. — Stuckey


 

COLTS AT BILLS (-3.5) | O/U: 39.5

1 p.m. ET | CBS

Injuries to watch: Taylor (knee, questionable) was a limited participant in practice all week. Rookie Nathan Peterman is expected to start, lowering the ceiling for an offense that will also be without Jordan Matthews (knee, IR), but will welcome back Kelvin Benjamin (knee, not listed). The Colts secondary will be without starting corners Pierre Desir (shoulder, IR) and Rashaan Melvin (hand, out). — Ian Hartitz

Weather report: While below-freezing temperatures are expected, a nasty 17 mph swirling crosswind will have more of an effect than the frigid temps. That won’t help these two offenses that are averaging a combined 32 ppg over the past five games — PJ Walsh and Stuckey

Did you know? Over the past two seasons, the over is 12-2 in Bills home games. That’s the most profitable home total in the league. — Evan Abrams

Pass or play? Pass. — Stuckey


 

LIONS AT BUCCANEERS (pick ’em)  |  O/U: 47

1 p.m. ET | FOX

Injuries to watch: Stafford (hand, questionable) bruised his throwing hand last Sunday, but practiced all week and is expected to suit up Sunday against a Buccaneers secondary without both cornerback Vernon Hargreaves (hamstring, out) and safety T.J. Ward (concussion, out). Ameer Abdullah (neck, questionable) will likely sit out, meaning Theo Riddick and Tion Green could again lead the Lions backfield. There’s more clarity in the Buccaneers backfield, as Doug Martin has cleared the concussion protocol and expected to start. — Ian Hartitz

What the metrics say: Jameis Winston has quietly put up excellent numbers when he has been healthy. In the seven games he has started and finished this season, Jameis has averaged 295 yards passing with 12 TDs and 6 INTs.  That’s with a shaky offensive line and a rushing attack only averaging 87.9 yards per game, 28th in the NFL. — Stuckey

Trend to know: It appears bookmakers overrate Stafford’s value. The Lions are 52-68-4 ATS with their franchise QB under center, and 11-7 ATS when the NFL’s highest-paid gunslinger is sidelined. — John Ewing

Pass or play? Pass. — Stuckey


 

REDSKINS AT CHARGERS (-6.5)   |   O/U: 47

4:05 p.m. ET | CBS

DFS edge: It’s hard to trust TE Hunter Henry in cash games — he has three or fewer targets in five games — but his upside is undeniable, and he’s made a habit of producing against teams weak in tight end defense: Dolphins (Week 2), Giants (Week 5), Raiders (Week 6), Broncos (Week 7), Cowboys (Week 12), and Browns (Week 13). The Redskins have allowed the fifth-most points to tight ends with 15.6 DraftKings and 12.7 FanDuel PPG. Henry has the position’s highest ceiling projections in our Models. — Matthew Freedman

Did you know? The Chargers are trying to become the first teams since 1992 to make the playoffs after starting the season 0-4 straight-up. — Evan Abrams

Trend to know: Underdogs of 3 or more points after a blowout loss (20 or more points) getting little public support (<50% of bets) are 219-161-9 (57.6%) ATS since 2003. Check, check and check for Washington this week. — John Ewing

Pass or play,? Pass. This line is too high, and it’s a good buy low spot for the Redskins in theory, considering they’ve had extra rest. But I don’t want any part of Washington’s offensive line — which ranks 26th in adjusted sack rate and is dealing with a bunch of injuries — against this ferocious Chargers pass-rush. — Stuckey


 

TITANS (-3) AT CARDINALS  |  O/U: 43

4:05 p.m. ET | CBS

Betting market: The ticket count and money wagered on this game both favor the Cardinals big time (see chart below). That helps explain why sportsbooks moved the number from Cardinals +3.5 through to a juiced-up +3. — PJ Walsh

Injuries to watch: The Cardinals offense will once again be without Adrian Peterson (neck, out) and No. 2 receiver John Brown (toe, out), but all-world cornerback Patrick Peterson (hamstring, probable) said he’ll suit up Sunday. The Titans defense will have slot corner Logan Ryan (concussion, not listed), but will be without front-seven stalwarts DaQuan Jones (biceps, IR) and Derrick Morgan (knee, out). The Cardinals defense will have their hands full with a Titans passing attack welcoming back Rishard Matthews (hamstring, not listed). Tight end Delanie Walker (ankle, not listed) is good to go, as well. — Ian Hartitz

Pass or play? Cardinals +3. The Titans season has been all smoke and mirrors, posting a minus-16 point differential against one of the NFL’s easiest schedules. Tennessee has won only two of its past five road games — by 3 against the Browns in OT and by 4 at Indianapolis. This Titans team relies a lot on their run game, but the Cardinals rank in the top 10 in a number of rush-defense statistics. — Stuckey


 

JETS (-1) AT BRONCOS  |  O/U: 42

4:05 p.m. ET | CBS

Betting market: As of Sunday morning, the Jets were one of the favorite Week 14 public sides (67%). That’s why the line flipped from the opener of Denver -1 to New York -1. — PJ Walsh

Did you know? The Broncos have lost eight straight games against the spread. The latest point in any of the eight games they’ve been inside the number is halfway through the second quarter. One more loss and Denver will join the 2015 Falcons as only the second team since 2000 to lose nine in a row ATS. — Evan Abrams and John Ewing

Pass or play? Pass. Jets as road chalk or a lifeless Broncos team? No thanks. — Stuckey


 

EAGLES AT RAMS (-1)  |  O/U: 47.5

4:25 p.m. ET | FOX

Betting market: Public bettors have quickly forgotten about Philadelphia’s loss in Seattle and are right back on the Eagles’ bandwagon, with the majority of spread tickets and spread bucks taking Philly. — PJ Walsh

What the metrics say: This is a good matchup for Philly on both sides of the ball. The Eagles offense ranks fourth overall in yards per carry (4.6) and first in red-zone TD percentage (68%), while L.A. struggles vs. the run (4.7 ypc allowed, 30th overall) and inside the 20 (59.4% TD rate allowed, 24th overall). Philly has the horses on defense to limit Todd Gurley in the run game (only 3.5 ypc allowed) and get after Jared Goff. — Stuckey

Did you know? The Eagles and Rams rank No. 1 and 2, respectively, in point differential, collectively outscoring their opponents by nearly 12 points per game. They’re tied for the league lead with 361 points. — Evan Abrams

Pass or play? Play the Eagles. — Stuckey


 

SEAHAWKS AT JAGUARS (-2.5)  |  O/U: 40.5

4:25 p.m. ET | FOX

Betting market: The public is banking on Seattle’s winning ways continuing after a marquee victory vs. the Eagles. The combination of one-sided action (see chart below) and a massive handle has forced oddsmakers to move this line from Jacksonville -3.5, through the key number of 3 and down to -2.5. —PJ Walsh

What the metrics say: Seattle, which doesn’t have much running game to speak of, will be forced to throw vs. the Jags’ No. 1 pass defense according to DVOA. The Seahawks’ offensive line has played better of late, but it still ranks 30th in adjusted sack rate. Jacksonville has the league’s best pass-rush, according to Football Outsiders. — Stuckey

Did you know? Russell Wilson and the Seahawks are listed as underdogs in back-to-back games for the first time since October 2012, Wilson’s rookie year. — Evan Abrams

Pass or play? Play Jaguars -2.5. This is a tough situational spot for the Seahawks. They have to fly cross country … for an out-of-conference game with the Jags … after a huge upset win over the Eagles … with a crucial divisional home game vs. the Rams on deck. — Stuckey


 

RAVENS AT STEELERS (-4.5)  |  O/U: 43

8:30 p.m. ET | NBC

Weather report: The forecast calls for the average in-game temperature to be 30 degrees, one of the coldest contests this season. Casual fans think colder weather leads to more unders cashing, but that’s not true. When the temperature is 32 degrees or colder, the over is 104-73-4 (58.8%) since 2003. — John Ewing

What the metrics say: Don’t forget about the hidden yards in this game. The Ravens have the NFL’s best special teams, according to DVOA, while Pittsburgh’s unit ranks 15th. — Stuckey

DFS edge: Antonio Brown (toe, probable) has averaged an NFL-high 29.1 DraftKings PPG at home since 2014, and the league’s receiving triple-crown leader will take on a Ravens defense without Jimmy Smith (Achilles, IR). PFF’s No. 13 overall corner is one of few mortals on Earth capable of slowing down Brown. Overall, AB has posted 11/144/1 and 10/96/1 lines in two games against the Smith-less Ravens since 2013, but failed to surpass seven receptions and 90 receiving yards while scoring just two total touchdowns in his seven games vs. Smith. — Ian Hartitz

Did you know? In 14 career head-to-head meetings between Ben Roethlisberger and Joe Flacco, this could be just the third time the spread closes above 3.5. — Evan Abrams

Pass or play? Play Ravens +4.5. This is a big-time revenge spot for Baltimore after they struggled to contain Le’Veon Bell earlier this season (186 scrimmage yards). Brandon Williams, one of the league’s premiere run defenders, didn’t play in that game, and since he has returned, the Ravens’ run D has been much better. This feels like another field goal game in a rivalry that’s seen 14 of the past 22 decided by four points or less. — Stuckey

3 Comments
  • Adam Steuernagel
    December 8, 2017 at 11:44 am

    I guess there wasnt a scooch podcast again this week? Love your guys info and letter. Good stuff

  • Lauren Lotti
    December 9, 2017 at 12:08 am

    Hey Chad ~
    This is where I first saw you! That was a pretty good show, wasn’t it? Oh well, anyway, I learned SO much from you back then about Reverse Line Mvmt, how sharps bet, etc. It took me a while, but I’ve become pretty good at it. I was happy to subscribe to the Action Network Newsletter and podcast, and I don’t make any moves without listening/reading first. Thanks for all the help and looking forward to learning more! Good Luck! *BostonLauren*

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