NFL Betting, DFS Angles for Every Week 13 Game

NFL Betting, DFS Angles for Every Week 13 Game

Who’s ready for a wacky Week 13?

Blake Bortles is laying nearly 10 points … The Seahawks — yes, those Seahawks — are home dogs. That’s happened only three other times in the Russell Wilson Era … And Eli Manning is not the Giants starting QB for the first time since 2004.

We’ve got playoff spots and seeds on the line, coaches’ jobs hanging in the balance, and an expert crew to make sense of it all.

Below, we hit every Week 13 game — ordered from the most-bet to least-bet, as of Sunday morning — touching on all the relevant betting data, profitable historical trends, factoids you need to know, cutting-edge DFS analysis, and pass/play recommendations from our one-named expert Stuckey.

If there’s a specific matchup you want to jump to, click the quick links below.

PHI-SEA | MIN-ATL | NE-BUF | DET-BAL | CLE-LAC | NYG-OAK | LAR-ARI | SF-CHI | CAR-NO | KC-NYJ | TB-GB | IND-JAX | DEN-MIA | HOU-IND | PIT-CIN


 

EAGLES (-4) AT SEAHAWKS  |  O/U: 47

8:30 p.m. ET | NBC

Betting market: Seattle is a home dog for the first time since Russell Wilson’s rookie season, but bettors are still pounding Philly (see chart below). Sharp money has moved the line down from -6 on Thursday night to -4 on Sunday morning. This will be a massive decision for the books on Sunday night. — PJ Walsh

Trend to know: Russell Wilson is 14-7-1 ATS as an underdog and a perfect 3-0 straight-up and ATS at home when getting points — John Ewing

What the metrics say: Seattle’s Bobby Wagner, the No. 1 LB this year according to PFF with a stunning grade of 98.5, could take away Carson Wentz’s favorite weapon in TE Zach Ertz. According to PFF, Wagner has allowed a total of five catches for 30 yards when matched up with TEs over the past six games. — Stuckey

Did you know? Major hat-tip to the Athletic’s Sheil Kapadia for surfacing this: The Seahawks have been within one score or held a lead in 113 of their past 115 fourth quarters. That’s important with the spread hovering around +6. — Stuckey

Pass or play, Stuckey? Play Seahawks +6 or better.


 

VIKINGS AT FALCONS (-2.5)  |  O/U: 47.5

1 p.m. ET | FOX

Betting market: The Vikings were flooded with steady money early on, but the line dipped from Falcons -3 to -2.5. — PJ Walsh

Did you know? Teams with a .750+ win percentages (like the 9-2 Vikings) that are underdogs in December or January (like the Vikings +3) are 20-34-2 ATS (-25.8% ROI) the past 15 seasons. What happens if you filter out the Week 17 games in case teams sat key starters? Glad you asked: 16-26-1 ATS (-24.1% ROI). — Evan Abrams

Injuries to watch: Falcons RB Devonta Freeman cleared concussion protocol and will play Sunday. — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge: Vikings WR Stefon Diggs is the cheapest he’s been since Week 2 on DraftKings — but he’s healthy as can be and is playing inside a dome, where he’s averaged an additional 5.5 DraftKings PPG in his career. After back-to-back tough matchups against the Rams and Darius Slay, Diggs will face off against a Falcons defense that ranks 28th in DVOA against WR2s and could be without stud CB Desmond Trufant (concussion, questionable). Atlanta coach Dan Quinn said second-year slot corner Brian Poole (back, probable) could fill in on the outside for Trufant, an upgrade for the entire Vikings pass offense. — Ian Hartitz

Trend to know: Are the Falcons and Matt Ryan overvalued at home? From 2008-12, Matty Ice covered the number 61.3% of the time as a home favorite. The past five seasons, that number has dipped to 46.7% ATS (35-40). — John Ewing

Pass or play, Stuckey? Play Falcons, especially now that the number has dipped below -3. Atlanta is 12-1 in its past 13 games against the NFC.


 

PATRIOTS (-7.5) AT BILLS  |  O/U: 48

1 p.m. ET | CBS

Betting market: The public is loading up on the Patriots at a 79% clip, but that’s nothing new for this particular divisional matchup. In the 28 games they’ve played since 2003, the Pats have received at least 70% of tickets 16 times. The lowest percentage of spread bets New England has received vs. the Bills was 58%. — Mark Gallant

DFS edge: Tom Brady doesn’t have a great matchup: The Bills are 11th against the pass in DVOA, and they have three defensive backs with top-10 PFF coverage grades. It also doesn’t help that Brady, especially as he’s aged, has tended to fall off on the road against divisional opponents in the second half of the season, putting up -5.23 DraftKings and -5.86 FanDuel Plus/Minus values in that situation since 2014. — Matthew Freedman

Did you know? Since Week 5, the Patriots have allowed the fewest points in the league. — Stuckey

Pass or play, Stuckey? Pass.


 

LIONS AT RAVENS (-3)  |  O/U: 43.5

1 p.m. ET | FOX

DFS edge: Ravens RB Alex Collins (calf, probable) has racked up an average of 21 touches per game since Danny Woodhead’s long-awaited return in Week 11. Sunday’s matchup against the Lions sets up well for Collins with the Ravens as 3-point home favorites against a Lions defense that’s allowed an additional 8.4 points per game and 76.2 rushing yards per game since losing defensive tackle Haloti Ngata (biceps, IR) in Week 5. Collins costs just $100 more than Woodhead on DraftKings. — Ian Hartitz

Did you know? The Ravens are currently in the sixth AFC playoff spot at 6-5, but here are the QBs they’ve beaten in their six wins: Andy Dalton, DeShone Kizer, EJ Manuel, Matt Moore, Brett Hundley, and Tom Savage. Woof. — PJ Walsh

Pass or play, Stuckey? Play the Ravens at -3 or less. Yes, I know Baltimore is on a short week vs. a Lions teams with extra prep, but Detroit needs to throw the ball to have success on offense. That’s bad news against a Ravens team that would have one of the 12 best pass defenses in DVOA history if the season ended today. This Detroit team isn’t built to win outdoors in colder weather.


 

BROWNS AT CHARGERS (-13.5)  |  O/U: 44

4:05 p.m. ET | CBS

DFS edge: All Josh Gordon did during his short career was gain the most receiving yards ever by a 22-year-old (in just 14 games). Head coach Hue Jackson said Gordon will play “as much as he can handle,” in his first start since 2014. But the Chargers represent just about the worst possible matchup for the league’s 32nd-ranked scoring offense, as Casey Hayward (No. 1), Desmond King (No. 11), and Trevor Williams (No. 13) are three of PFF’s top-15 cornerbacks. — Ian Hartitz

Trends to know: We hate to say it, but an overwhelming number of trends point toward backing the Browns …

  • Bad teams against the spread (<30% ATS, Browns) against good teams against the spread (winning ATS record, Chargers) in second half of the season: 151-95-9 (61.4%) ATS
  • Double-digit dogs after double digit losses (that’s the Browns!): 109-86-4 (55.9%) ATS
  • Philip Rivers when getting 70+% of the spread tickets (as he is this week): 14-19-1 ATS, good for a -15.4% ROI. — Evan Abrams, John Ewing, and Mark Gallant

Pass or play, Stuckey? Ugh, this line is too high, so I lean Browns. Emphasis on lean.


 

GIANTS AT RAIDERS (-8.5)  |  O/U: 41.5

4:25 p.m. ET | FOX

Betting market: Before news broke of Eli Manning’s benching, 53% of spread bets were on the Giants (+7 at the time). With Geno Smith now getting the nod, only 27% of tickets are backing New York with the line settling in at +8.5. — PJ Walsh

DFS edge: As mentioned on the Week 13 Daily Fantasy Flex pod, Raiders TE Jared Cook is a potential chalk lock against the Giants, who have allowed the most fantasy points to tight ends with 17.1 DraftKings and 14.0 FanDuel PPG. Without wide receivers Amari Cooper (concussion, ankle) and Michael Crabtree (suspension), Cook could function as the team’s No. 1 pass catcher. Through 11 games, Cook is first on the team with 42 receptions and 536 yards. Running 260 of his 333 routes from the slot or out wide, Cook basically plays as a wide receiver. — Matthew Freedman

Injuries to watch: The Raiders’ pass-catchers are depleted, as detailed above. The Giants have their own injuries issues to worry about: No. 1 corner Janoris Jenkins (ankle, IR) won’t be playing, and Geno Smith will be without guard D.J. Fluker (toe, IR) and potentially tackle Justin Pugh (back, questionable) in his Giants’ debut. But run-stuffing defensive tackle Damon Harrison (elbow, probable) and No. 1 receiver Sterling Shepard (migraines, probable) should both play. — Ian Hartitz

What the metrics say: The Raiders have the third-worst pass defense DVOA since 1986, but with Smith starting at QB and few healthy weapons alongside him, the Giants aren’t really equipped to take advantage. — Stuckey

Pass or play, Stuckey? Pass hard, but if the line gets up to 10, I’d consider betting the Giants moneyline. Their two wins came as double-digit dogs.


 

RAMS (-7) AT CARDINALS  |  O/U: 44

4:25 p.m. ET | FOX

Betting market: The public is all-in on the Rams (see chart below), but the line has not moved off the key number of 7. The Rams have not been a road favorite of seven or more points since 2003. — PJ Walsh

What the metrics say: The Cardinals are averaging 3.05 yards per carry. If the season ended today, that would be the worst mark in the NFL since 2000. Good news for the Rams, who have the NFL’s third-worst run defense this season (4.7 ypc). — Stuckey

Pass or play, Stuckey? Pass. One note, though, FWIW: This is a potential flat spot for the Rams after a home win over the Saints and with the Eagles on deck.


 

49ERS AT BEARS (-3)  |  O/U: 41

1 p.m. ET | FOX

Betting market: The line opened Bears -5 and was quickly bet down to -3.5. With Jimmy Garoppolo the confirmed starter for San Fran, the line is down to 3. — PJ Walsh

Did you know? Over the past two seasons, the Bears are 9-2-1 ATS when receiving less than than majority of the spread dollars at home. As the chart below shows, they’ll find themselves in that situation again on Sunday — Evan Abrams

Pass or play, Stuckey? Play the Bears if the line dips below -3. They’ve had the hardest schedule in the NFL so far, with a .633 opponent win percentage.


 

PANTHERS AT SAINTS (-5.5)  |  O/U: 48

4:25 p.m. ET | FOX

Betting market: Steady New Orleans money has moved this line from Saints -4 to -5.5. At this point there’s nothing sharp to report, just one-sided action. — PJ Walsh

Injuries to watch: Early-week injury scares from both Christian McCaffrey (shoulder, probable) and Devin Funchess (toe, probable) were eased with both players returning to practice Thursday, but Greg Olsen’s (foot, questionable) mid-week downgrade is concerning. While Cam Newton should have the majority of his weapons Sunday, he’ll face a Saints defense that expects to welcome back Ken Crawley (abdomen, probable), but could once again be without Marshon Lattimore (ankle, questionable) — PFF’s No. 17 and No. 4 overall cornerbacks, respectively. — Ian Hartitz

Trend to know: Drew Brees is the second most profitable QB in our database (since 2003) after a loss: 52-32-2 ATS ($1,780 profit for a $100 bettor). Tom Brady is No. 1 at 33-12 ATS and a $2,056 profit for a $100 bettor. — John Ewing

Pass or play, Stuckey? Pass.


 

CHIEFS (-3.5) AT JETS  |  O/U: 43.5

1 p.m. ET | CBS

Betting market: Early money moved this line from Jets +5 down to +3, but sharp buyback on K.C. pushed the number back up to 3.5. — PJ Walsh

DFS edge: RB Kareem Hunt and the Chiefs’ sudden inability to move the ball on offense is alarming. The good news? The rookie’s workload remains intact with an average of 18.6 touches per game over the past five weeks, and Hunt gets an easier matchup this week versus the Jets, DVOA’s 21st-ranked defense. Hunt is no longer being treated like a top-three back, with his salary reaching its lowest point on DraftKings since Week 2, and his projected 9-12 percent ownership significantly lower than his average of 26.4 percent this season. — Ian Hartitz

Trend to know: Teams that lost their previous game as a favorite of 10 or more points (like the Chiefs) have gone 35-23-3 (60.3%) ATS in their next game. — John Ewing

Pass or play, Stuckey? Pass


 

BUCCANEERS AT PACKERS (-2.5)  |  O/U: 44.5

1 p.m. ET | FOX

Betting market: Even with Jameis Winston returning from an injured shoulder, the Packers are getting an overwhelming amount of support (see chart below), flipping the line from Green Bay +2 to -2.5. — PJ Walsh

Did you know? Over the past five seasons, Mike McCarthy and the Packers are 3-8-1 straight-up and 3-9 ATS when a QB other than Aaron Rodgers starts the game. Over that same span, Rodgers is 36-25-2 ATS (fourth-most profitable QB). — Evan Abrams

DFS edge: Mike Evans should benefit from the expected return of Jameis Winston (shoulder, probable), as he’s averaged an additional 1.55 targets per game with Winston under center during his career. The Bucs’ 6’5” 230-pound beast seems due for positive touchdown regression considering he’s gone scoreless in four consecutive games, tying the longest stretch of his career. He has an exploitable matchup against a Packers secondary that has allowed a slate-high 3.9 DraftKings points above salary-based expectations to WRs over the past 12 months. — Ian Hartitz

Injuries to watch: Ty Montgomery (ribs, doubtful) remains sidelined, but Aaron Jones (knee, questionable) is on track to return and form a timeshare with fellow-rookie Jamaal Williams. The potential return of both linebacker Clay Matthews (groin, questionable) and defensive lineman Kenny Clark (ankle, questionable) would be more bad news for a Buccaneers O-line that’ll be without starting center Ali Marpet (knee, IR) and right tackle Demar Dotson (knee, questionable) – PFF’s No. 6 and No. 4 overall center and tackle, respectively. RB Doug Martin remains in the concussion protocol. — Ian Hartitz

Pass or play, Stuckey? Play the Packers anything under -3. Winston’s average kickoff temperature last year was 75 degrees. He has never played in sub-45-degree weather in college or the pros, so this could potentially be coldest game of his career. I don’t trust Winston to shake off the rust in the cold without his two best offensive linemen.


 

COLTS AT JAGUARS (-9)  |  O/U: 40

1 p.m. ET | CBS

Betting market: The Jaguars are 9-point favorites for the first time since 2009 and a surprising 62% of spread tickets are confident that Blake Bortles can win by double-digits. — PJ Walsh

Trend to know: Keep an eye on if this line moves to 10. Double-digit faves have gone 78-106-5 (42.4%) ATS in divisional games since 2003. — John Ewing

What the metrics say: Remember when the Jags sacked Jacoby Brissett 10 times earlier this season? That might’ve been Jacksonville’s warmup for this. The Jaguars D ranks No. 1 in Adjusted Sack Rate, while the Colts have the league’s worst O-line in terms of Adjusted Sack Rate. — Stuckey

DFS edge: Leonard Fournette played less snaps than T.J. Yeldon last week at home against the Cardinals. Fournette is still good for 20-plus carries if everything goes right, which it has a good chance to do as a huge home fave versus a brutal Colts defense. Still, the three-down workhorse role we grew to trust earlier in the season appears to be gone. — Ian Hartitz

Pass or play, Stuckey? Pass. If you like Indy, you might consider looking at the first-half line. The Colts are one of five teams to have at least eight halftime leads this season. They are 2-6 in those games. The other four teams — Eagles, Patriots, Panthers and Vikings — are a combined 31-2. #Pagano


 

BRONCOS (-2) AT DOLPHINS  |  O/U: 40.5

1 p.m. ET | FOX

Betting market: The line moved in the Broncos’ direction, from +1 to -2, despite the ticket count being pretty much even. — PJ Walsh

Did you know? Over the Broncos’ seven-game ATS losing streak, Denver has played the game “inside the betting number” for 42 minutes and 32 seconds of a possible 420 total minutes. The latest in the game Denver was covering the spread during the streak was near the start of the second quarter against the Raiders in Week 12. — Evan Abrams

Pass or play, Stuckey? Play the Broncos. Jay Cutler will start for the Dolphins, and he will need to beat Denver on his own. The Broncos lead the league in rush defense, allowing 3.2 yards per attempt. I trust Denver’s ability to grind the game out on the ground against Miami’s porous defense.


 

TEXANS AT TITANS (-7)  |  O/U: 42

1 p.m. ET | CBS

Injuries to watch: The Texans will be without starting left tackle Chris Clark (ankle, IR), while Lamar Miller (knee, probable) and Will Fuller (ribs, questionable) didn’t practice to start the week. Any absences won’t help an offense that’s scored 15.0 PPG with Tom Savage under center this season, compared 34.7 PPG with Deshaun Watson. Corey Davis could once again work as the Titans’ featured receiver with Rishard Matthews (hamstring, questionable) considered day-to-day. — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge: Speaking of Corey Davis … the rookie underwhelmed in a smash spot in Week 12 versus the Colts, producing just four catches and 39 yards. That could lead to reduced ownership moving forward. The 2017 No. 5 overall pick is in a prime position to bounce back against a Texans defense that’s allowed an additional 6.1 points per game and 75.3 passing yards per game since losing J.J. Watt (leg, IR) and Whitney Mercilus (pec, IR) in Week 5. — Ian Hartitz

Did you know? Since Marcus Mariota was drafted in 2015, no QB has lost more money for bettors: 13-22-2 ATS (-$990 based on $100 bets). Because I know you were wondering, the QB taken one spot ahead of him in the draft, Jameis Winston, is not far behind Mariota: 17-22-1 ATS (fourth-least profitable QB during this span). — Evan Abrams

Pass or play, Stuckey? Pass. I don’t like the Texans having to play away from home on a short week, but I’m not ready to back the hard-to-trust Titans.


 

STEELERS (-5) AT BENGALS  |  O/U: 43.5

8:30 p.m. ET (Monday) | ESPN

What the metrics say: Pittsburgh’s offense and defense both rank second in Adjusted Sack Rate. Cincy’s offense and defense both rank 26th in Adjusted Sack Rate. Translation: The Steelers should dominate this game in the trenches on passing downs, which we should see plenty of since the Bengals cannot run the ball (3.2 yards per carry, 31st in the NFL). — Stuckey

DFS edge: Antonio Brown leads the league in both receptions (80) and receiving yards (1,195) through 12 weeks. He’s converted his 25 targets over the past two weeks into a 20-313-5 line. Decent. This week he’ll be forced to produce on the road against a Bengals secondary that’s finally healthy and ranks ninth in DVOA against WR1s this season. Brown has averaged 8.11 fewer DraftKings PPG away from Heinz Field since 2014 and has surpassed 65 receiving yards just once in his past five matchups against the Bengals. — Ian Hartitz

Trend to know: Mike Tomlin is 16-5 straight-up and against the spread vs. Marvin Lewis. Andy Dalton is 3-10 SU and ATS vs. the Steelers. — Evan Abrams and John Ewing

Did you know? The Bengals’ five wins have come against the Browns, Bills, Colts, Broncos, and Browns again. Those teams have a combined record of 12-43 (.218) this season. — Stuckey

Pass or play, Stuckey? Pass.

1 Comment
  • Adam Steuernagel
    December 1, 2017 at 3:21 pm

    Great fuckin insightful stuff. Love love love the info every week..

Post a Comment