NCAAB Game of the Day: North Carolina at Duke

One of the best rivalries in all of College Basketball will be renewed tonight when the #15 North Carolina Tar Heels (18-7, 8-4 ACC) travel to Cameron Indoor Stadium to take on the #4 Duke Blue Devils (22-3, 9-3 ACC). Boasting a higher ranking and home court advantage, Duke opened as a 9-point favorite at CRIS and, at the time of publication, was receiving 56% of spread bets. Despite receiving a majority of public bets, Duke has dropped to -8.5 across the sports betting marketplace.

Both of these teams feature elite offenses with North Carolina (78.7 point per game) ranked 17th nationally in scoring and Duke (80.3 points per game) featuring the nation’s 8th most potent offense. Perhaps that explains why the total opened at 160 and 62% of early bets have been placed on the over. Even though the betting public once again likes the over, the total has dropped to 154. This reverse line movement indicates that early sharp money has been pounding the under.

Readers may also be interested to know that despite both teams owning impressive records, they have been entirely mediocre for bettors, While Duke has posted a 13-11-1 ATS record this season, North Carolina has gone just 12-12-1 ATS including a 2-7-1 mark over their past ten games. Recently, the Tar Heels have held the edge in this matchup with an 11-8 ATS record including a 7-3 mark at Cameron Indoor Stadium.

These are typically two of the most trendy teams for bettors, but we wanted to know how public betting in the Tobacco Road Rivalry compared to every other game. Our research revealed that, since 2005, Duke receives an average of 61.99% of spread bets while North Carolina is just a tick lower at 60.70%. Our database also showed that the Tar Heels have been slightly more popular amongst bettors, averaging 50.34% of spread bets in this matchup.

The table below, taken from our matchups page, displays the head to head details from the last ten North Carolina vs. Duke meetings.

Duke UNC Past Games

We’ve often spoken about how College Basketball rankings are overrated and can create contrarian value for opportunistic bettors, but what happens when two ranked teams face off? Our research indicates underdogs have gone 392-378 ATS (-6.75 units) in these games while home teams have gone 340-326 (-3.75 units) indicating that there is no advantage.

This article will be updated throughout the day as we observe changes to the lines and public betting trends, but bettors can view the latest odds and trends from our free College Basketball odds page. Have any questions for the staff at Sports Insights? Utilize our live chat to speak with a customer service representative or e-mail us at help@sportsinsights.com.

David Solar is the Content Manager at Sports Insights and can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com.

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David Solar

David Solar has been the Content Manager at Sports Insights for over four years. He specializes in sports betting analytics and has created several popular data-driven betting systems. He can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com or on twitter at @TheDavidSolar.

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