After falling behind by 16 points in the second quarter, the Golden State Warriors utilized a small lineup to overcome the deficit en route to a 110-106 victory and a 1-0 series lead over the Houston Rockets. This evening at 9PM Eastern Time, the Rockets will attempt to even the series and head back to Houston.
In Game 1, the Warriors opened as a 10-point favorite at the market-setting Pinnacle sportsbook and received 51% of spread bets. Despite this very even public betting, the Warriors closed -10.5 across the sports betting marketplace. In this evening’s game, the Warriors opened as 10-point favorites but are currently receiving just 28% of spread bets. With a majority of bettors taking the road dog, Houston has dropped from +10 to +9.5.
The line graph below, which is available to Sportsbook Insider members, displays how the Warriors line has moved since opening at Pinnacle.
It’s easy to see why public bettors are taking Houston. After all, they dominated early action and easily covered the double-digit spread. However, historically it has been very profitable to fade these trendy underdogs. Since 2005, playoff dogs receiving at least 60% of spread bets have gone just 56-82 ATS (40.58%). By simply betting against these teams, bettors would have earned +21.47 units with a 15.6% return on investment (ROI).
In addition to this highly profitable betting system, it’s worth noting that teams receiving less than 40% of spread bets during the Conference Finals have gone 24-10 ATS (+12.84 units won) which further indicates that there is value on Golden State tonight.
You don’t even need to look at these betting systems to determine that the Warriors are offering bettors’ value this evening, just look at the line movement. Early on Wednesday (5/20) morning, a reverse line movement alert was triggered on Golden State -10 at BetOnline (73-65 ATS this season). This indicates that early sharp money likes the home favorite in this matchup.
Right now, both starting centers are nicked up with Andrew Bogut (Illness) listed as probable and Dwight Howard (Knee) listed as questionable. Users can get the latest updates on these players by following us on twitter or visiting our NBA injury page.
These numbers are always subject to change, so we recommend that bettors track the latest odds and betting trends on our free odds page.
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David Solar is the Content Manager for Sports Insights and can be reached directly at David@sportsinsights.com.