NBA Betting Trends: Sacramento Kings at New York Knicks

NBA Betting Trends: Sacramento Kings at New York Knicks

Last night Linsanity broke out into a full blown frenzy when the Knicks new point guard drained a game winning three-pointer with less than a second remaining in New York’s 90-87 win over Toronto. Jeremy Lin, the league’s newest phenom, finished the game with 27 points and 11 assists — giving him at least 20 points and 7 assists in each of the past six games. During that time, the Knicks have gone 6-0 including a 5-1 mark against the spread (ATS).

Tonight, the Knicks opened as a 7-point favorite at the market-setting Cris sportsbook and, according to Sports Insights’ NBA Betting Trends, they are currently receiving 73% of spread wagers and a whopping 88% of moneyline bets. Despite this one-sided betting percentage, the line has dropped a full point to -6. This reverse line movement is a strong indicator that sharp money is taking the visiting Kings.

With the media hyping Lin’s sudden rise, we have seen a steep rise in the Knicks public betting percentage. On February 4th against the Nets, the Knicks (-7) received just 55% of spread wagers. The following night they received just 52% of spread bets as 3-point favorites against the Jazz. However, if today’s betting percentage holds up it will mark the third straight games the Knicks will receive over 70% of spread bets. This lop-sided betting percentage plays into our contrarian strategy and makes this game a potential system play.

Last night the Knicks welcomed back Amare Stoudemire — who missed four games following the death of his brother — and the All-Star center responded with 21 points and 9 rebounds.  However, New York will still be without Carmelo Anthony who has not played since February 6th due to a groin injury. For Sacramento, there are no significant injures although Jimmer Fredette is dealing with an illness and is listed as probable. Our Premium and All-Pro customers have access to breaking injury notifications, so make sure to try our 7-day free trial to receive up to the minute updates.

While almost the entire marketplace is shopping this game at -6, a few books including Bovada and BetEagle are offering lines of 6.5. We consistently preach the importance of keeping multiple books as it is imperative for you to shop for the best line.

The following table shows the breakdown of spread betting percentages from our six contributing sportsbooks:


# Bets






Kings 3454 16% 24% 24% 24% 42% 21%
Knicks 84% 76% 76% 76% 58% 79%
1 Comment
  • pete
    02/15/2012 at 2:26 pm

    I enjoy the analysis here. I very much thought the Raptors held value for this reason last night. It is a fun concept to follow as the books remain neutral on this situation.

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