NBA Betting Trends: Betting Against the Public on Large Road Dogs
Last week in this space, we detailed the value of 10-point home underdogs in the NBA. Our research revealed a 52.3% winning percentage for all 10+ point home dogs, and that percentage escalated as we filtered the games with lower and lower public betting percentages. This week, we have continued to comb through our historical betting database and found further value on 10-point dogs — however, this time we uncovered tremendous returns on visitors.
Since February 1, 2010, visiting teams receiving less than 35% of public bets and getting 10 or more points have gone 43-20 (68.25%) with 20.89 units earned. This high level performance should be no surprise to our long-time customers who know the value of betting against the public — especially on big underdogs.
This also ties in to our research from this season’s Betting Against the Public article. Our research revealed that visitors were significantly undervalued as teams receiving less than 35% of spread wagers have a winning percentage of 52.6% since 2003.
The following chart shows the performance of this system since February of 2010.
According to Sports Insights’ NBA Betting Trends, there is one game tonight that fits this system as the Washington Wizards (+13 at Pinnacle) are receiving just 23% of spread wagers for tonight’s game against the Bulls. For the reasons detailed above, we recommend keeping an eye out on this game as a potential Best Bet.