NBA Betting Against the Public: The Value of 10 Point Home Dogs

As detailed in our 2011-12 NBA Betting Against the Public article, there is great value betting on teams who are receiving less than 30% of spread wagers as they have a winning percentage of 50.9% since 2003.  But what happens when you begin to add filters to that system? Using our NBA historical database, we have uncovered tremendous results on home dogs of 10+ points.

NBA Home Dogs of 10+ points (Last Eight Seasons, ending June 2011)

Betting Percentage Record
All Games 56-51 (52.3%)
>35% 41-37 (52.6%)
>30% 37-30 (55.2%)
>25% 26-17 (60.5%)
As the table above demonstrates, there is exceptional value when you begin filtering large home underdogs based on our contrarian strategy. All games receiving fewer than 35% of public bets qualify as winning strategies; however the best value appears to be games getting under 25%.
This season, only one team has qualified as a 10-point home underdog. Back on December 28th, the Bobcats were 10.5 point dogs against the Heat, and received just 17% of spread wagers. In that game Dwyane Wade scored on a last-second alley-oop from LeBron James, but Charlotte still covered the spread with a final score of 96-95.
None of tonight’s games meet the criteria for this system, but we will continue to monitor this trend as the season continues.

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