Long ATS Streaks on the Line in College Hoops Saturday
Conference play has officially begun in college basketball and that’s good news for teams like UNC Wilmington and Vanderbilt who have struggled to cover this season. UNC Wilmington has failed to cover the spread in 9 consecutive games (0-9 this year), while Vanderbilt hasn’t covered for 8 straight games (2-9 this year). On the other side of things, Portland State is probably wishing the entire year consisted of non-conference opponents as they’ve managed to cover in 10 straight games including straight up wins over California, Stanford and Utah State. They’ve also played within the number against superior teams like Duke (lost by 18) and Oregon (lost by 11).
On Saturday night, all three of these long ATS streaks will be on the line. Here’s a look at the odds and betting percentages for each:
UNC Wilmington (-1.5, 46% of bets) vs. Delaware
Betting has been pretty split for UNC Wilmington/Delaware and there’s barely been any line movement off -1. Delaware hasn’t been great ATS this year either at just 2-4-1 including three straight losses. Since 2005, teams on an 8-game ATS losing streak or higher have gone 68-63-2 ATS in their following game. As a small contrarian home favorite, UNC Wilmington may be a decent bet to finally cover a game this season.
Vanderbilt (+9, 25% of bets) at Florida
Bettors have been scared off by Vanderbilt, especially as a road team against a strong Florida squad. This line opened Gators -8.5 around the market so there’s been a little bit of movement toward Florida, but not as much as expected. The ‘Under’ is a very popular bet in this one with more than 70% of tickets and money, which may be a good thing for Vandy to stay in it. At just 25% of tickets, Vandy is setting up as a possible contrarian play tonight.
Portland State (-8, 78% of bets) at Sacramento State
As for Portland State, it makes sense that nearly 80% of bettors are taking them to cover once again. However, the line movement on this game has differed depending on the book, opening -7.5 at 5Dimes, -8 at BetUS, and -9 at Bookmaker. Currently sitting at Portland State -8.5, the line has gone up from its opening numbers at 5Dimes and BetUS, but down since opening at Bookmaker.
Historically, teams on a double-digit ATS win streak have gone just 14-13 ATS in their following game. Last season, UTEP finished the regular season on a 12-game ATS win streak while Gonzaga had an 11-game ATS win streak snapped vs. Portland.
(Photo via Joseph Weiser-USA TODAY Sports)