La Liga, Serie A, and Bundesliga Title Odds

The English Premier League gets the most attention around the world but that doesn’t mean the other major European football leagues aren’t worth following. Last year Atletico Madrid was a shock winner in Spain’s La Liga, winning the title despite +10,000 odds before the year to do so. They were able to edge out both powerhouses Real Madrid and Barcelona, and were minutes away from winning the UEFA Champions League, the most coveted club football trophy in the world. They’ve clearly closed the gap based on the odds but it’s still Real and Barca’s title to lose.

Below shows the early and current title odds to win each league via Sportsbook.com:

Odds to win Spain’s La Liga:

Club January 23, 2015 October 9 August 21 July 12, 2014
Real Madrid -333 +110 -137 -120
Barcelona +225 -120 +125 +110
Atletico Madrid +1800 +1400 +1400 +1000
Valencia +15000 +4000 +12500 +12500
Sevilla +15000 +20000 +17500 +17500
Villarreal +50000 +30000 +22500 +22500
Athletic Bilbao +100000 +25000 +15000 +15000
Malaga +100000 +150000 +150000 +75000
Celta Vigo +150000 +75000 +100000 +75000
Rayo Vallecano +250000 +150000 +250000 +75000
Espanyol +250000 +150000 +200000 +75000
Real Sociedad +250000 +50000 +20000 +20000
Eibar +250000 +200000 +500000 +100000
Deportivo La Coruna +500000 +200000 +200000 +100000
Elche +500000 +250000 +300000 +100000
Almeria +500000 +300000 +500000 +100000
Getafe +500000 +150000 +150000 +75000
Granada +500000 +150000 +200000 +100000
Levante +500000 +500000 +200000 +75000
Cordoba +500000 +500000 +500000 +100000

It’ll have to take something similar to Atletico Madrid this year in Germany where Bayern Munich are overwhelming favorites to win their third consecutive Bundesliga title. Dortmund and Schalke are their most formidable opponents but both are unlikely to outlast Bayern over the lengthy season. This title race is so lopsided that many books are offering Bayern Munich vs. the Field. 

Odds to win Germany’s Bundesliga:

Club January 23, 2015 October 9 August 21 July 12, 2014
Bayern Munich -15000 -1600 -900 -900
VfL Wolfsburg +9500 +8000 +5000 +5000
Bayer Leverkusen +25000 +2000 +4000 +4000
Monchengladbach +35000 +12500 +15000 +15000
Schalke 04 +100000 +8000 +2500 +2500
Hoffenheim +100000 +15000 +25000 +25000
Augsburg +200000 +40000 +50000 +50000
Hannover 96 +250000 +100000 +50000 +50000
Eintracht Frankfurt +250000 +50000 +100000 +100000
Mainz 05 +250000 +30000 +50000 +50000
Borussia Dortmund +250000 +1400 +600 +600
FC Koln +300000 +100000 +100000 +100000
Hertha Berlin +400000 +150000 +100000 +100000
Paderborn +400000 +150000 +200000 +200000
Werder Bremen +500000 +150000 +100000 +100000
Hamburg +500000 +50000 +50000 +50000
VfB Stuttgart +500000 +75000 +50000 +50000
Freiburg +750000 +150000 +100000 +100000

It’s in Italy, though, where the title is expected to be the closest with the most contending teams this season. Last year Juventus were a -120 favorite to be tops in the league and ended up winning it by 17 points over second place AS Roma. This year they’ve basically been priced the same but surrounding teams have improved. AC Milan and Inter Milan are still trying to get back to the top but are definitely in the mix, while both Napoli and Roma pose the biggest threat to knock off Juve.

Odds to win Italy’s Serie A:

Club January 23, 2015 October 9 August 21 July 12, 2014
Juventus -500 -200 +100 -150
Roma +225 +250 +225 +350
Napoli +2500 +1400 +500 +500
Lazio +6600 +20000 +12500 +12500
Inter Milan +10000 +2200 +1300 +1300
Fiorentina +10000 +2200 +2000 +1400
AC Milan +15000 +1800 +1300 +1100
Sampdoria +25000 +20000 +50000 +50000
Udinese +30000 +20000 +20000 +20000
Torino +75000 +50000 +30000 +30000
Genoa +100000 +75000 +50000 +50000
Atalanta +100000 +100000 +75000 +75000
Palermo +100000 +100000 +75000 +75000
Parma +150000 +50000 +22500 +22500
Cagliari +150000 +150000 +75000 +75000
Sassuolo +150000 +150000 +100000 +100000
Cesena +200000 +150000 +100000 +100000
Empoli +200000 +100000 +100000 +100000
Hellas Verona +200000 +50000 +50000 +50000
Chievo +250000 +200000 +100000 +100000

We’ll go with the boring picks of Bayern Munich -900 in the Bundesliga and Real Madrid -120 in La Liga but will take AS Roma at +225 to dethrone Juventus in Serie A.

Are there any darkhorses or sleepers that you like to win these leagues, or will it be the usual suspects once again? Feel free to leave your thoughts and comments below.

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Dan McGuire

Dan McGuire is the Operations Manager and soccer specialist at Sports Insights. He can be reached at dan.mcguire@sportsinsights.com.

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