Greek Freak MVP Odds Skyrocket After 1st Week
Anthony Bennett. Cody Zeller. Ben McLemore. Trey Burke. These are all guys drafted ahead of Giannis Antetokounmpo back in 2013. I guess hindsight is 20-20, right!
The Greek Freak is off to a blistering start this season and has looked as dominant as ever. Trust me, I was at the game against the Celtics. Absolute freaking monster of a human being.
In a way-too-early look at player efficiency rating (PER), he’s looking pretty solid at 43.53. Here are the stat lines from the first three games.
- Game 1: 37 pts, 13 rebs, 3 asts, 3 stls
- Game 2: 34 pts, 8 rebs, 8 asts, 3 stls, 1 blk
- Game 3: 44 pts, 8 rebs, 4 asts, 2 stls, 2 blks
Not bad, not bad. Filling up the stat sheet and making those daily fantasy players happy. Not to mention he’s shooting 67.2%.
So, how much can a player improve his MVP odds in just one week? Apparently a lot.
|Player||12/4 (Bovada)||10/23 (Bovada)||10/16 (Bovada)||9/24 (Bovada)||8/23 (Bovada)||8/16 (Bovada)||8/13 (Paddy Power)|
Antetokounmpo has moved from +1000 to +250 in this short stretch—close to a 20% spike in implied probability. The real question is: How long can he keep this up? Some people believe he has a chance to put up over 30 a game and average a triple double. I think he’s going to have a great year, but personally, I think that the value is already gone at +250. You’re probably better off waiting for him to have a little bit of a rough stretch or for someone else to go nuts for a week and hope that the payout improves.
Most of the other top contenders have understandably seen their odds drop. A few names further down the list that have improved include Kristaps Porzingis, John Wall, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Ben Simmons.
Porzingis has scored 30+ in each of his first two games, but there’s literally no chance he wins the award. The Knicks are not going to be close to good enough for him to deserve recognition.
Wall is averaging a cool 27 and 9—probably somewhat close to what he’ll end up with at season’s end. Not a terrible longshot pick if you like the Wizards.
Towns has posted decent stats as well and his Timberwolves have two solid victories over OKC and Utah, but I can’t see him winning this year. Also, the last time a true big man won the award was Kevin Garnett back in 2003-04 (or Dirk Nowitzki in 2006-07 if you want to count him.)
Simmons is certainly looking good for rookie of the year with his 15.7, 10.3, and 6.0 averages, but he’s just not going to score enough to win MVP.
What do you think? Is the Greek Freak the real deal? And by real deal, I mean would you bet on him at +250?