Greek Freak MVP Odds Skyrocket After 1st Week

Greek Freak MVP Odds Skyrocket After 1st Week

Anthony Bennett. Cody Zeller. Ben McLemore. Trey Burke. These are all guys drafted ahead of Giannis Antetokounmpo back in 2013. I guess hindsight is 20-20, right!

The Greek Freak is off to a blistering start this season and has looked as dominant as ever. Trust me, I was at the game against the Celtics. Absolute freaking monster of a human being.

In a way-too-early look at player efficiency rating (PER), he’s looking pretty solid at 43.53. Here are the stat lines from the first three games.

  • Game 1: 37 pts, 13 rebs, 3 asts, 3 stls
  • Game 2: 34 pts, 8 rebs, 8 asts, 3 stls, 1 blk
  • Game 3: 44 pts, 8 rebs, 4 asts, 2 stls, 2 blks

Not bad, not bad. Filling up the stat sheet and making those daily fantasy players happy. Not to mention he’s shooting 67.2%.

So, how much can a player improve his MVP odds in just one week? Apparently a lot.

Player12/4 (Bovada)10/23 (Bovada)10/16 (Bovada)9/24 (Bovada)8/23 (Bovada)8/16 (Bovada)8/13 (Paddy Power)
James Harden+115+1000+1000+1000+900+800+700
Giannis Antetokounmpo+400+250+1000+1000+850+850+750
LeBron James+400+500+400+450+500+750+750
Kyrie Irving+900+1200+1200+1200+1500+5000N/A
Kevin Durant+1500+800+550+550+550+450+350
Russell Westbrook+1500+1000+600+600+450+350+350
Steph Curry+1800+1200+1200+1200+1200+1100+1100
Kawhi Leonard+2800+600+400+350+400+650+550
Joel Embiid+3300+2500+2500+4000+5000+5000+5000
Anthony Davis+4000+2500+1800+1800+1800+1600+1600
Kristaps Porzingis+4000+2500+10000+10000+10000+10000N/A
John Wall+5000+2800+3300+3300+3300+3300+3000
Ben Simmons+5000+3300+8000+8000+8000+6600N/A
Karl-Anthony Towns+6000+2500+3300+3300+3300+3300+3000
DeMarcus Cousins+7000N/A+4000+4000+4000+3300+3000
Damian Lillard+7500N/A+4000+5000+5000+5000+4500
Andre Drummond+8000N/A+25000+25000+25000+25000N/A
LaMarcus Aldridge+8000N/A+25000N/AN/AN/AN/A
Nikola Jokic+10000N/A+4000+4000+4000+4000+3300
Demar Derozan+10000N/A+6000+6000+6000+5000+5000
Paul GeorgeN/AN/A+3000+3000+3000+2500+2000
Chris PaulN/AN/A+3300+3300+3300+2500+3300
Jimmy ButlerN/AN/A+8000+10000+10000+7500+9000
Andrew WigginsN/AN/A+10000+8000+8000+7500N/A
Draymond GreenN/AN/A+10000+10000+10000+6000N/A
Blake GriffinN/A+5000+4000+4000+4000+4000+3000
Gordon HaywardN/AN/A+10000+10000+10000+7000+6600
Carmelo AnthonyN/AN/A+10000+10000+10000+7500+6000
Kyle LowryN/AN/A+15000+15000+15000+10000+9000
Kemba WalkerN/AN/A+15000+15000+15000+15000N/A
Kevin LoveN/AN/A+20000+20000+20000+10000N/A
Marc GasolN/AN/A+20000+20000+20000+15000N/A
Bradley BealN/AN/A+20000+20000+20000+20000N/A
Mike ConleyN/AN/A+20000+20000+20000+20000+15000
Paul MillsapN/AN/A+20000+25000+25000+15000N/A
Dirk NowitzkiN/AN/A+25000+25000+25000+25000+50000
Dwight HowardN/AN/A+25000+25000+25000+25000N/A
Hassan WhitesideN/AN/A+25000+25000+25000+25000N/A
Devin BookerN/AN/A+25000+25000N/AN/AN/A
Goran DragicN/AN/A+25000N/AN/AN/AN/A
Daniel TheisN/AN/A+99900N/AN/AN/AN/A
Isaiah ThomasN/AN/AN/A+3500+3500+2500+2000
Jeff TeagueN/AN/AN/A+25000+25000+25000N/A

Antetokounmpo has moved from +1000 to +250 in this short stretch—close to a 20% spike in implied probability. The real question is: How long can he keep this up? Some people believe he has a chance to put up over 30 a game and average a triple double. I think he’s going to have a great year, but personally, I think that the value is already gone at +250. You’re probably better off waiting for him to have a little bit of a rough stretch or for someone else to go nuts for a week and hope that the payout improves.

Most of the other top contenders have understandably seen their odds drop. A few names further down the list that have improved include Kristaps Porzingis, John Wall, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Ben Simmons.

Porzingis has scored 30+ in each of his first two games, but there’s literally no chance he wins the award. The Knicks are not going to be close to good enough for him to deserve recognition.

Wall is averaging a cool 27 and 9—probably somewhat close to what he’ll end up with at season’s end. Not a terrible longshot pick if you like the Wizards.

Towns has posted decent stats as well and his Timberwolves have two solid victories over OKC and Utah, but I can’t see him winning this year. Also, the last time a true big man won the award was Kevin Garnett back in 2003-04 (or Dirk Nowitzki in 2006-07 if you want to count him.)

Simmons is certainly looking good for rookie of the year with his 15.7, 10.3, and 6.0 averages, but he’s just not going to score enough to win MVP.

What do you think? Is the Greek Freak the real deal? And by real deal, I mean would you bet on him at +250?


Mark Gallant

I'm the guy who does his job. You must be the other guy.

1 Comment
  • T-Bone
    10/24/2017 at 4:18 am

    Based on the top 5 players right now, GA is 1st in the league in points 2n\d in Reb 10th overall 2nd in ast 25th overall steals 1st, 7th overall and Blocks 2nd, 27th overall Id say early season MVP!!!!

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