Final 4 Early Betting Notes

Final 4 Early Betting Notes

Kentucky, Wisconsin, Duke, and Michigan State make up the 2015 NCAA Final 4 in Indianapolis, Indiana. Duke takes on Michigan State in the first matchup on Saturday night, followed by undefeated Kentucky against Wisconsin.

-Wisconsin (59% of spread bets) opened at +6 and moved to +5 behind respected bets across the market on Sunday night. Currently 53% of ML bets are also on the Badgers. The O/U also dropped 2.5 points at Pinnacle early Sunday morning despite 80% of early bets on the Over.

-Duke opened -4.5 against Michigan State and has been bet up to -5 behind nearly 2/3 of bets.

-Kentucky has been a single-digit favorite in just 6 of their 38 games  this season. Smallest spread was -5 at Louisville on Dec 27 (won 58-50).

-The table below shows the title odds from early Monday morning:

TeamLV Superbook5DimesSportsbookThe Greek
Kentucky-120-123-150-175
Duke+350+320+400+285
Wisconsin+350+390+400+500
Michigan State+800+1400+800+800

-What’s on the line in terms of future bets? David Purdum is reporting that William Hill took a pair of $200 bets on Michigan State at 100:1 odds, and $50,000 on Duke to win it all at 8:1 odds.

-Exact finals matchup from Bovada:

Kentucky/Duke -110

Kentucky/MSU +300

Wisc/Duke +300

Wisc/MSU +700

-Pre-tourney odds at 5Dimes to make the Finals:    Kentucky -130, Duke +380, Wisconsin +495, Mich St +2200

-Pre-tourney odds at 5Dimes to make the Final 4:   Kentucky -290 Wisconsin +160 Duke +173 Mich St +1100

-The table below shows the Tourney MOP (Most Outstanding Player) odds at Bovada from before the Sweet 16 to now:

PlayerCurrent OddsBefore Sweet 16
Karl Anthony Towns (UK)+300+700
Willie Cauley-Stein (UK)+400+400
Jahlil Okafor (Duke)+500+1200
Justise Winslow (Duke)+500+2000
Aaron Harrison (UK)+700+1000
Frank Kaminsky (Wisc)+800+1200
Sam Dekker (Wisc)+800+2000
Travis Trice (MSU)+1200+2500
Daniel Valentine (MSU)+1600No odds
Branden Dawson (MSU)+2000+2500

-Finally, here’s some quick stats on how this year’s tournament has unfolded so far:

Underdogs have gone 32-28 ATS

10+ pt dogs have gone 12-4 ATS

Teams getting <40% of bets have gone 21-11 ATS

Unders have gone 33-28


Dan McGuire

Dan McGuire is the Operations Manager and soccer specialist at Sports Insights. He can be reached at dan.mcguire@sportsinsights.com.

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