Final 4 Early Betting Notes

Kentucky, Wisconsin, Duke, and Michigan State make up the 2015 NCAA Final 4 in Indianapolis, Indiana. Duke takes on Michigan State in the first matchup on Saturday night, followed by undefeated Kentucky against Wisconsin.

-Wisconsin (59% of spread bets) opened at +6 and moved to +5 behind respected bets across the market on Sunday night. Currently 53% of ML bets are also on the Badgers. The O/U also dropped 2.5 points at Pinnacle early Sunday morning despite 80% of early bets on the Over.

-Duke opened -4.5 against Michigan State and has been bet up to -5 behind nearly 2/3 of bets.

-Kentucky has been a single-digit favorite in just 6 of their 38 games  this season. Smallest spread was -5 at Louisville on Dec 27 (won 58-50).

-The table below shows the title odds from early Monday morning:

Team LV Superbook 5Dimes Sportsbook The Greek
Kentucky -120 -123 -150 -175
Duke +350 +320 +400 +285
Wisconsin +350 +390 +400 +500
Michigan State +800 +1400 +800 +800

-What’s on the line in terms of future bets? David Purdum is reporting that William Hill took a pair of $200 bets on Michigan State at 100:1 odds, and $50,000 on Duke to win it all at 8:1 odds.

-Exact finals matchup from Bovada:

Kentucky/Duke -110

Kentucky/MSU +300

Wisc/Duke +300

Wisc/MSU +700

-Pre-tourney odds at 5Dimes to make the Finals:    Kentucky -130, Duke +380, Wisconsin +495, Mich St +2200

-Pre-tourney odds at 5Dimes to make the Final 4:   Kentucky -290 Wisconsin +160 Duke +173 Mich St +1100

-The table below shows the Tourney MOP (Most Outstanding Player) odds at Bovada from before the Sweet 16 to now:

Player Current Odds Before Sweet 16
Karl Anthony Towns (UK) +300 +700
Willie Cauley-Stein (UK) +400 +400
Jahlil Okafor (Duke) +500 +1200
Justise Winslow (Duke) +500 +2000
Aaron Harrison (UK) +700 +1000
Frank Kaminsky (Wisc) +800 +1200
Sam Dekker (Wisc) +800 +2000
Travis Trice (MSU) +1200 +2500
Daniel Valentine (MSU) +1600 No odds
Branden Dawson (MSU) +2000 +2500

-Finally, here’s some quick stats on how this year’s tournament has unfolded so far:

Underdogs have gone 32-28 ATS

10+ pt dogs have gone 12-4 ATS

Teams getting <40% of bets have gone 21-11 ATS

Unders have gone 33-28

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Dan McGuire

Dan McGuire is the Operations Manager and soccer specialist at Sports Insights. He can be reached at

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