Everything to know about betting Falcons-Bucs on MNF

Everything to know about betting Falcons-Bucs on MNF

NFL favorites have gone 9-3-1 so far in Week 15, leaving public bettors feeling prettay, prettay, prettay good.

But they’re not done yet. The public is doubling down its winnings on the Falcons as road favorites against the Buccaneers on Monday night.

The books will need Tampa Bay for their lungs, as our buddy Scooch likes to say. But can they count on the Bucs to keep it close? Our crew of experts has a few thoughts …


 

FALCONS (-7) AT BUCCANEERS  |  O/U: 48.5

8:30 p.m. ET  |  ESPN

Betting market: Atlanta opened -5 and has taken steady, one-sided action all week (see chart below). This is by far the most popular public side of Week 15. Wiseguys haven’t shown a willingness to back the Bucs, which is part of the reason this line has moved all the way to the key number of -7 as of Monday evening. — PJ Walsh

What the metrics say: The Bucs defense ranks dead last in the following categories: Yards per play, passing yards, sacks, adjusted sack rate, and opponent third-down conversion. The Falcons, meanwhile, are the best team at converting third downs and the third-best yards-per-play offense. Atlanta shouldn’t have any trouble scoring. Can the Bucs keep up? They aren’t well positioned to attack the Falcons’ biggest weakness (rushing defense). Tampa averaged just 3.7 yards per carry, 27th in the NFL. — Stuckey

Trend No. 1 to know: Stuckey’s on-point analysis probably has you thinking about the over. But consider: The over/under has risen from 47.5 to 48.5, and when the line increases in a high-total game during the second half of the season, the under has gone 152-111-5 (57.8%) since 2005. If the game features two division rivals, the under is 59-36 (62.1%). For more on this trend, check on this piece— John Ewing

Injuries to watch: Devonta Freeman will work as the Falcons’ featured back with Tevin Coleman (concussion, out) sidelined. Freeman will be without starting LG Andy Levitre (triceps, out), but he has a great matchup against a depleted Buccaneers defense. Tampa will be missing starting CB Vernon Hargreaves III (hamstring, out), DT Gerald McCoy (biceps, out), and LB Lavonte David (hamstring, out). — Ian Hartitz

Trend No. 2 to know: This will be the Falcons’ first game in 11 days after beating New Orleans on Thursday Night Football in Week 14. Since 2003, favorites of six or more points with 10 or more days between games have gone 95-67-4 (58.6%) ATS in the regular season. — John Ewing

DFS edge: Julio Jones’ 12-253-2 line against the Buccaneers during their Week 12 matchup marked the seventh time Jones has cleared 100 yards against Tampa. Overall, Jones has posted a +12.3 Plus/Minus and averaged 30.7 DraftKings points per game against the Buccaneers since 2014 — his second-highest mark against any opponent. Buccaneers head coach Dirk Koetter admitted he regretted not shadowing Jones with No. 1 CB Brent Grimes last time around, but that matchup might not make much difference considering Grimes is just PFF’s 54th-highest graded cornerback and stands 5’9″ and 175 pounds. — Ian Hartitz

Did you know? Matt Ryan’s career ATS record by day of the week:

Sunday: 66-66-3 ATS
Non-Sunday: 16-4 ATS

Weird, right? — Evan Abrams

Pass or play: Pass. This is a great matchup on paper for the Falcons (see the metrics above), but it’s a horrible situational spot. Atlanta is coming off a season-saving win against the Saints, with a game at New Orleans looming next week. Were the Falcons focused on the Bucs all week or looking ahead? — Stuckey

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