We’ve reached the knockout phases of Euro 2016 where 16 teams have now qualified from the 24-team group stage. Prior to the start of the tournament, I picked out 9 futures in the group stage with betting value, including Hungary to win the group at 11:1 odds and Austria to finish bottom at 5:1 odds. Those 9 futures earned bettors +24.45 units (risking 1 unit on each bet) and I’ll aim to identify value for the knockout phases as well. Below shows the remaining bracket and the odds to advance from the Round of 16 for each matchup:
Odds to Advance:
Northern Ireland +200
There are some real intriguing matchups in the Round of 16 highlighted by Spain vs. Italy. Italy was a popular pick to make it out of the group stages, and one of the last teams that Spain was hoping to face. The closest matchups are Croatia/Portugal and Poland/Switzerland, where Croatia and Poland are the slight faves to advance. Germany and France are expected to reach the quarterfinals while England and Belgium also have high chances.
Now is there any value on any teams to advance to the quarterfinals? Right now nearly 70% of moneyline bets are taking Poland despite the game being close to a toss up, which means I’ll be going the other way on Switzerland +110 to advance. Both teams drew 0-0 in their toughest group game last round and were stingy defensively all in three group games. However, neither team has much offensive firepower, so it’s hard to figure out why public bettors are so high on Poland. Grabbing Switzerland at “+” money to advance looks to be the play.
In the other close matchup, I like Croatia to advance past Portugal at -130 odds. Right now bettors are undecided on the 3-way moneyline, but are pretty heavy on Portugal to advance. Portugal are what we like to call “trendy underdogs” since a high proportion of bettors are on them despite being underdogs. Sure they have Ronaldo and were able to score 3 goals in their last game, but it’s never all quite there for them. Croatia have an overall stronger team, they’ve played better against tougher competition, and should be getting their best player Luka Modric back. Croatia were even able to come back and defeat Spain without him, so I think they have good value at -130 to advance.
Lastly, I actually like Spain at -200 to advance past Italy. I had picked Italy not to advance from the group stage which was one of my hiccups, as they went on the finish top of their group. However, now the public is now all over the Italians to advance to the quarterfinals, another “trendy underdog” situation. Italy are getting over 60% of moneyline bets to beat Spain outright, so again I’ll be fading the masses and taking Spain -200 to advance here.
France, Germany and Spain were the top favorites heading into the group stage and remain the favorites heading into the knockout phases. The table below shows how odds have fluctuated since the start of the tournament:
|Country||Jul 5, 2016
|Jun 29, 2016
|Jun 23, 2016
|Jun 6, 2016
|May 9, 2016
|Dec 14, 2015
|Oct 15, 2015
|Jul 18, 2014
Here are the most popular wagers at William Hill, led by Germany, England, and Belgium:
So far during this tournament, bettors have found great success on moneyline dogs and draws, a stark contrast from Copa America where moneyline favorites dominated. Here’s a look at the group results on the 3-way betting line (favorite/underdog/draw):
|Euro Group Results||Moneyline Favorites||Moneyline Underdogs||Draw|
|Highest Payout||Croatia +108 vs. Turkey||Hungary +564 vs. Austria||Portugal/Iceland +353|
Track all the latest line moves and betting percentages for free at our Euro Live Odds page.
Are there any value plays you like for the Round of 16? Feel free to leave your thoughts and comments below.
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