Did Baker Mayfield’s Sideline Antics Hurt His Heisman Odds?

Did Baker Mayfield’s Sideline Antics Hurt His Heisman Odds?

Some people will see that headline and instantly react by saying “ugh that’s ridiculous, of course it shouldn’t matter”. I’m not exactly here to argue whether it SHOULD matter or not, but whether it HAS or WILL matter when it’s time for the voting process. The fluctuation in odds is a great gauge of how bettors and the market are reacting together.

From the Heisman website– “the award annually recognizes the outstanding college football player whose performance best exhibits the pursuit of excellence with integrity”. This isn’t simply picking the best or most valuable player in college football, but also deals with how a player carries himself. Unfortunately for Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield, he ended up being the focus of attention in the wrong ways last Saturday in a 41-3 win at Kansas.

It all started when the Jayhawks’ captains refused to shake hands before the game with Mayfield and the rest of the Oklahoma captains, and then proceeded to take multiple cheap shots on Mayfield throughout the game. Remember, this Kansas football team has been one of the worst in all of sports over the last 10 seasons and were +38.5 point underdogs AT HOME. The blatant disrespect coming from a program which has had such little success was undoubtedly going to stir up Sooner emotions. Mayfield eventually responded with some gestures and words that were obviously all caught on camera:

As a result, Oklahoma felt the need to discipline Mayfield for the regular season finale against West Virginia, a game in which the Sooners are listed as 23-point favorites. He’s expected to play at some point but won’t start and won’t be named a captain.

The Heisman Trophy odds market has always been very fluid and subject to huge changes from week-to-week. Mayfield was the massive -1500 favorite heading into the Kansas game and despite going 20-30 for 257 passing yards and 3 TDs in an easy 41-3 win, he has actually seen his odds come down. Here’s a look at updated odds from 5Dimes:

PlayerSchoolPositionNov 22
(5Dimes)
Nov 14
(BOL)
Nov 7
(BOL)
Nov 1
(BOL)
Oct 24
(BOL)
Oct 16
(BOL)
Oct 9
(BOL)
Oct 3
(BOL)
Sep 25 9 PM
(BOL)
Sep 25 4 PM
(BOL)
Sep 18
(BOL)
Sep 11
(BOL)
Sep 6
(BOL)
Sep 6
(5Dimes)
Aug 21
(Bovada)
Aug 21
(5Dimes)
July 18
(5Dimes)
June 24
(5Dimes)
Feb 6
(Will Hill)
Jan 24
(Bovada)
Baker MayfieldOklahomaQB-600-1500-175+1000+700+275+275+225+275+300+350+400+600+800+800+850+850+700+700+600
Lamar JacksonLouisvilleQB+785+10000+5000+5000+10000+3300+2000+1000+700+600+450+350+400+600+800+950+950+925+700+700
Bryce LoveStanfordRB+1400+1000+1200+450+200+275+800+1400+3300+3300+5000N/AN/A+6500N/A+17500+17500+15000N/AN/A
Saquon BarkleyPenn StateRB+2650+1200+200-160-140+100+100+125+250+500+800+700+1000+1000+700+1500+1500+1500+1500+1000
JT BarrettOhio StateQB+3785+2500+2500+400+800+1600+10000+2500+1400+1400+2000+2500+800+1500+800+1250+1250+1050+1000+700
Josh AdamsNotre DameRB+8500+5000N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
Mason RudolphOklahoma StateQB+15000+10000+3300+3300+2000+500+600+800+600+600+700+1400+1400+1600+2500+3600+3600+3600+1500+1200
Will GrierWest VirginiaQBN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+8000N/A+6000+6600+3500N/AN/A
Sam DarnoldUSCQBN/A+10000N/A+8000+5000+2500+2500+2000+1000+800+500+450+700+600+400+525+525+500+700+700
Khalil TateArizonaQBN/A+3300N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
James WashingtonOklahoma StateWRN/AN/AN/A+5000+5000N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+6000N/A+15000+15000+12500+6000N/A
Nick ChubbGeorgiaRBN/AN/AN/A+8000+3300+2500+2500+3300+3300+3300+4000+5000+3300+3500+2500+4300+4300+4000+3000+2500
Trace McSorleyPenn StateQBN/AN/AN/A+8000+5000+2500+2500+3300+2000+2000+1600+2000+1600+2000+3300+3500+3500+3300+2000+1000
Quinton FlowersSouth FloridaQBN/AN/AN/A+12500+2500+2500+3300+3300+3300+3300+2500+2500+2500+4000N/A+4500+4500+7500+4000N/A
Kenny HillTCUQBN/AN/AN/AN/A+3300+5000+10000N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+15000N/A+20000+20000+20000+10000N/A
Malik RosierMiami FLQBN/AN/AN/AN/A+5000+6600+10000N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
Jalen HurtsAlabamaQBN/AN/AN/AN/A+5000+10000+10000+2500+2500+2500+2000+1200+1400+2500+1600+2200+2200+1500+1500+1200
Jake BrowningWashingtonQBN/AN/AN/AN/A+10000+5000+2500+3300+3300+3300+2000+2500+2000+3000+1800+2200+2200+1700+1200+1000
Luke FalkWashington StateQBN/AN/AN/AN/A+10000+5000+1000+2000N/AN/AN/AN/A+2000+2500+3300+4900+4900+4700+3000+3500
Minkah FitzpatrickAlabamaSN/AN/AN/AN/A+10000N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+25000+25000+20000N/AN/A
Josh RosenUCLAQBN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+5000+5000+2000+2000+1400+1200+1200+2250+2500+3500+3500+3300+2000+1200
Royce FreemanOregonRBN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+10000+3300+2000+2000+2500+3300+3000+4000N/A+11500+11500+10000+5000N/A
Rashaad PennySan Diego StateRBN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+10000N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
Damien HarrisAlabamaRBN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+5000+5000+10000+6600+4000N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
Derrius GuiceLSURBN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+5000+5000+3300+1400+1400+1600+1200+1500+1500+1500+2000+1500
Nick FitzgeraldMississippi StateQBN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+5000+5000+3300+5000+5000+5500+3300+10000+10000+10000+4000+2200
JK DobbinsOhio StRBN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+5000+5000+5000+6600+3300N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
Jarrett StidhamAuburnQBN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+6600+6600+8000+10000+5000N/A+2000+2000+2000+2500+4000N/A
Calvin RidleyAlabamaWRN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+10000+10000+8000+10000+6600+10000N/A+20000+20000+20000+10000N/A
Justin HerbertOregonQBN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+5000+10000+5000+15000N/A+12500+12500+15000+10000N/A
Ty JohnsonMarylandRBN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+3300+2500+3300N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
Kamryn PettwayAuburnRBN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+4000+5000+5000+5000+3300+4700+4700+4500+3000+2500
Ed OliverHoustonDTN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+5000+5000+6600+6500N/A+25000+25000+17500+7500N/A
Brandon WimbushNotre DameQBN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+8000+10000+6600+4500N/A+12500+12500+12500+7500N/A
Nyqwan MurrayFlorida StateWRN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+17500+17500+15000N/AN/A
Jonathan TaylorWisconsinRBN/A+2500N/A+3300+2500N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
Justin JacksonNorthwesternRBN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+12500N/AN/AN/AN/A
Kyle AllenHoustonQBN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+9000N/A+14000+14000+12500+7500N/A
Antonio CallawayFloridaWRN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+6000N/AN/AN/AN/A
Malik ZaireFloridaQBN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+15000+15000+12500N/AN/A
Hunter JohnsonClemsonQBN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+15000+15000+15000N/AN/A
Mike WeberOhio StateRBN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+1000N/A+7500+7500+6600+5000N/A
Brett RypienBoise StateQBN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+16000+16000+15000+10000N/A
Deon CainClemsonWRN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+17500+17500+15000N/AN/A
Bo ScarbroughAlabamaRBN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+5000+3300+2000+1400+2200+2200+2000+2000+1500
Wilton SpeightMichiganQBN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+8000N/A+17500+17500+15000+7500N/A
Tanner MangumBYUQBN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+17500+17500+15000N/AN/A
Mike WhiteWestern KentuckyQBN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+20000+20000+15000N/AN/A
Shea PattersonMississippiQBN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+15000N/A+15000+20000+15000+10000N/A
Christian KirkTexas A&MWRN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+10000N/A+15000+15000+15000+7500N/A
Myles GaskinWashingtonRBN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+8000N/A+10000+10000+8000+7500N/A
Derwin JamesFlorida StateSN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+10000+2000+10000+10000+12500+7500N/A
Deondre FrancoisFlorida StateQBN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+1800+2200+2200+2200+1200+1200
Arden KeyLSUDEN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+10000N/A+25000+25000N/A+10000N/A
Rashan GaryMichiganDLN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+25000+25000+20000N/AN/A
Courtland SuttonSMUWRN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+25000+25000+20000N/AN/A
Chris JamesWisconsinRBN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+25000+25000+20000N/AN/A
Mark WaltonMiami FLRBN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+20000+20000+20000N/AN/A
Malik JeffersonTexasLBN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+25000+25000+20000N/AN/A
Ronald JonesUSCRBN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+25000+25000+20000N/AN/A
LJ ScottMichigan StateRBN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+25000+25000+20000N/AN/A
Josh AllenWyomingQBN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+5500N/A+10000+10000+10000N/AN/A
Nick ShimoekTexas TechQBN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+25000+25000+20000N/AN/A
Dexter LawrenceClemsonDTN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+10000N/A+20000+20000N/A+10000N/A
Sewo OloniluaTCURBN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+20000+20000+17500N/AN/A
Kerryon JohnsonAuburnRBN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+20000+20000+17500N/AN/A
Eric DungeySyracuseQBN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+20000+20000+15000N/AN/A
Jacob EasonGeorgiaQBN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+8500N/A+10000+10000+10000+6000N/A
Shane BuecheleTexasQBN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+5000+5000+5500+5500+5500+4000+3500
Cam AkersFlorida StateRBN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A+5000+17500+25000+20000N/AN/A

Baker Mayfield is still a big -600 favorite, but the incidents on Saturday clearly affected his odds in a negative way. He also won’t be starting this weekend and no one really knows exactly how much he’ll play. Being stripped of captaincy before the final game isn’t something Heisman voters are just going to ignore no matter how far the Sooners get this season.

The biggest winner in all this has been Louisville QB Lamar Jackson, who was listed at 100/1 odds just last week. He’s now got the second-best odds with a road game against 7-4 Kentucky this weekend and looking to repeat as Heisman winner. This season compared to last season, he’s actually had a higher completion %, higher QB rating, and fewer INTs while still putting up huge passing and rushing numbers. He may be the “safer” choice for many voters to make by the end of the year.

Dan McGuire

Dan McGuire is the Operations Manager and soccer specialist at Sports Insights. You can find him on Twitter (@ArsenalDMC) and he can be reached directly at dan.mcguire@actionnetwork.com.

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