College Football Week 4 Betting Recap:
– Thursday night’s game featured a crucial Top-25 matchup between public favorite Auburn and home dog Kansas State. Auburn entered the game winning 13 straight games ATS by an average of 12.23 points per game including last season’s BCS title game.
– Auburn opened -7.5 and quickly moved to -10 behind 70% of bets but during the week the line dropped back down to -7.5. David Purdum also reported similar movement in Vegas, with four times the bets coming in on Auburn but twice the money on Kansas State. In typical Thursday night fashion, Kansas State scored a late TD for the backdoor cover, losing 20-14.
– Thursday night’s game was also a popular one, as it drew more bets than the NFL game between the Bucs and Falcons. This was the first Thursday night that an NCAAF game out-bet an NFL game since 12/3/09 when Oregon State-Oregon had more bets than Jets-Bills.
– Least Popular Bets of the weekend: SMU 12% (did not cover), Indiana 14% (covered and won outright), Tulane 15% (did not cover), Washington State (covered), and ULL 19% (did not cover).
– Teams that covered Overs on their own: Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Temple, East Carolina.
– Saturday night’s key matchup between Clemson and Florida State lost a bit of luster when it was reported early in the week that FSU QB Jameis Winston would be suspended for the 1st half. That dropped the line from FSU -20 to -17. The school then decided to suspend him for the entire game, further dropping the line to -10 at Pinnacle, and the Over/Under fell a total of 5.5 points since the opener. Without Winston, FSU struggled most of the game but held on to win 23-17 in overtime. Clemson easily covered both the opener of +20 and the closer of +10, and the Under 61 also hit easily.
– The suspension to Winston also greatly affected his Heisman hopes, as he moved from +650 to +1500 without playing a down as he missed a crucial game against a quality opponent and today is down to +2000. Winston was the clear +350 to win it again back in June, but those chances look bleaker now.
– Via our Bet Labs software: Moneyline underdogs of +320 or greater went 0-28 straight up in Week 1 and just 10-18 ATS. In Week 2, they improved going 2-31 straight up and a very good 22-11 ATS. In Week 3, ML dogs of +320 or greater did even better going 4-27 straight up but just 15-16 ATS. In Week 4, these dogs went 2-25 straight up but got a big moneyline win (+1450) from Northwestern State over Louisiana Tech.
– NCAAF Best Conferences ATS in 2014: Conference USA 28-17, SEC 29-21
– NCAAF Worst Conferences ATS in 2014: Mountain West 16-26, MAC 21-28
– Last year there were 11 teams that failed to win more than 3 games ATS (combining to go 30-100 ATS). Those same teams have bounced back tremendously and are now 22-16 ATS through the first four weeks of the season.
– In Week 4, Home teams went 34-23 ATS and Favorites went 32-25 ATS.
– With Winston’s odds dropping significantly, the Heisman Trophy looks like Oregon QB Marcus Mariota’s to lose, as he’s now the +250 favorite. Major moves for the 2014-15 Heisman Odds following Week 3 include:
Mississippi State QB Dak Prescott +5000 to +1200
Oregon QB Marcus Mariota +550 to +250
FSU QB Jameis Winston +650 to +1500
– LSU’s home loss to Mississippi State shook things up in the SEC as well as the national title. Major moves for the 2014-15 National Title Odds following Week 3 include:
LSU +1800 to +5000
Mississippi State +12000 to +5000
Texas A&M +1500 to +1000
Ohio State +2800 to +1800
Florida +3800 to +8000
– Key Week 5 games (via BetOnline):
UCLA -5.5 at Arizona State (UCLA opened -3 and quickly moved to -5.5)
South Carolina -5.5 vs. Missouri (So Car opened -5.5 and moved to -7 before dropping back to -5.5)
Clemson -14 vs. UNC (Clemson opened -8.5 and moved all the way to -14)
Texas A&M -10.5 vs. Arkansas (A&M opened -12 but fell to -10)
Check out all of the latest Week 5 College Football betting lines, public betting trends, breaking injuries and more at our new free NCAAF live odds page.
You can also check out systems we’ve added to the Bet Labs Think Tank including a profitable way to take advantage of Top 25 rankings.
Our College Football Best Bets have started the season 25-17 ATS (+5.7 units) performance and you can get them all through the entire season along with all other sports with our discounted 6-month Pro package.
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