College Football Week 12 Betting Recap

– There were a couple marquee games this weekend and neither disappointed. Alabama knocked off #1 ranked Mississippi State but it was hardly an upset. Bama opened -7 and closed -10, the most points a #1 team had received since the 2008 SEC Championship game (Alabama was +10 vs. Florida). Mississippi St +10 also got a late cover, scoring a touchdown on 4th and goal with 30 secs left to lose 25-20 at Alabama.

– FSU-Miami was the most bet game of the weekend and FSU did what FSU does– down early and then storm back to win. FSU closed at -2.5, the smallest spread in one of their games since September 2011 at Clemson (span of 47 games of at least -3), and were able to cover and win 30-26.

– Texas Tech closed at +14 against Oklahoma and were down by 18 before scoring a touchdown on a 39-yard pass with no time remaining, making the final score 42-30 and covering the spread.

– Wisconsin RB Melvin Gordon broke the NCAA FBS single-game rushing record with 408 yards vs. Nebraska. At TopBetSports, Gordon moved from 20:1 to 2:1 to win the Heisman Trophy Award and at Sportsbook.com Gordon moved from +1200 to +250.

– Will Muschamp has been dismissed as head coach of the Florida Gators, but will coach the last two regular season games. Muschamp has gone 18-26 ATS in his 3+ years as Florida Head Coach, including an awful 7-18 ATS at home.

Via our Bet Labs software:

– The 11 schools that failed to win more than 3 games ATS last season (30-100 combined ATS) are now 63-48 ATS this season.

– Despite the MAC having a reputation for lots of points, it seems that bookmakers have been one step ahead the last few years. Since 2005, Unders are actually 266-238 when MAC teams play each other, and 80-70 during weekday games. This year, weekday MAC games have gone Under the total in 7 of the 8 games.

– Biggest Moneyline upsets: Northwestern +700, Appalachian State +500, Hawaii +400, Utah +350

– Arkansas had lost 17 straight SEC games but opened -1 vs. LSU and closed at -2.5 despite <50% of bets. Arkansas controlled the game and easily won 17-0.

Heisman Odds biggest changes from Week 12:

Melvin Gordon +250 from +1200

JT Barrett +1500 from +2000

Trevone Boykin +3500 from +1800

Dak Prescott +4000 from +500

Amari Cooper +5000 from +3000

Current Title Odds | Highest Odds during season:

Alabama +260     |   +800 on October 13

Oregon +380       |  +2,500 on October 6

Ohio St +550      |   +3,000 on September 8

Florida St +600   |   +850 on November 10

TCU +700           |   +17,500 on August 23

Miss St +800      |  +12,000 on September 15

Baylor +800        |   +3,000 on November 3

What to look for in Week 13:

Key Injuries: Notre Dame QB Everett Golson (Questionable), Air Force RB Jacobi Owens (Questionable), Auburn WR D’haquille Williams (Questionable), Colorado QB Sefo Liufau (Questionable),  La Tech QB Kenneth Dixon (Questionable), BGSU RB Travis Greene (Questionable), New Mexico RB Jhurell Pressley (Questionable), UMass QB Blake Frohnapfel (Questionable), UL Monroe WR Rashon Cesar (Questionable), ASU WR Jaelen Strong (Questionable). Get the full list of injuries here.

Key Line Moves: WVU -1 to -2 vs. Kansas State, Duke -7 to -6 vs. UNC, ND -4.5 to -3.5 vs. Louisville

Early Most Lopsided: UCF 96%, Marshall 92%, MTSU 91%, ECU 90%, Memphis 90%

 

Our College Football Best Bets are 58-43 ATS for +9.7 units won this season and our Contrarian plays are 33-23 for +7.7 units and you can get them along with all other sports with our discounted packages.

Check out all of the latest Week 13 College Football betting lines, public betting trends, breaking injuries and more at our free NCAAF live odds page.

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Dan McGuire

Dan McGuire is the Operations Manager and soccer specialist at Sports Insights. He can be reached at dan.mcguire@sportsinsights.com.

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