Thursday afternoon, Sports Insights President Dan Fabrizio hosted a webinar discussing NFL betting for tonight’s game between the Indianapolis Colts and Jacksonville Jaguars.
During the webinar, Dan highlighted five reasons why bettors should consider Jacksonville in this week’s Thursday Night Football matchup:
1. NFL 80/20 Rule: Since 2003, regular season underdogs that receive 20% or less of spread bets are 86-65 (57%) ATS for a profit of +16.59 units and an 11% ROI.
2. Since the 2004 season, home teams playing on Thursday night are 33-18 (64.7%) ATS for a profit of +13.95 units and a 27.3% ROI.
3. Reverse-Line Movement: After Pinnacle opened this game at Indianapolis -3.5, the line has dropped to -3 even though 80% of spread wagers have taken the Colts.
4. Value Created by Shopping for the Best Line: While most sportsbooks have Jacksonville at +3, there are a handful that have moved to +3.5 with Sports Interaction and Bovada at +4.
5. Rookie quarterback Andrew Luck is 4-1 ATS at home, but only 1-2 on the road.