2017 NFL: Week 4 Betting Recap

2017 NFL: Week 4 Betting Recap

We all know that Monday night offered one of the worst beats in recent memory, but let’s take a look at how the rest of Week 4 went for NFL bettors.

  • Underdogs had a slight edge over favorites this week, going 9-7 against the spread.
  • Road teams also had a profitable week, going 9-6 ATS (the Saints were also technically the road team in London but we’re not including that).
  • Putting the two strategies together, dogs on the road went 7-4.
  • The two remaining 3-0 ATS teams both continued to cover. Buffalo won outright at Atlanta as +8 underdogs, and the Chiefs of course had an incredible back door cover on the final play of Monday night’s game against Washington.
  • Contrarian bettors weren’t nearly as successful as last week, as teams getting less than 40% of bets went 5-6 ATS. Teams less than 30% continue to be profitable though, going 3-2 ATS.
  • The Jets (+4) and Panthers (+9) were the two least popular bets, each attracting only 27% of spread bettors. They both covered.
  • On the moneyline, two of the three biggest underdogs were winners on Sunday. Carolina knocked off New England in Foxborough as a +385 dog, and Buffalo was a +330 moneyline winner in Atlanta.
  • Overall, underdogs went 7-9 on the moneyline, a losing record, but good for a solid 5.7 units.
  • The over went 9-7 on the week, and went 5-2 with totals of 46 or higher.
  • The Cardinals and Chargers are still both looking for their first respective covers of the season. Arizona is currently +6.5 at Philly this week, and the Chargers are +3.5 at the Giants.
  • Devonta Freeman now has 5 rushing touchdowns on the season which leads the NFL. His preseason odds to do so were +1700 at Bookmaker.
  • Jordy Nelson is now the receiving touchdown leader, also with 5. He was second behind Antonio Brown to lead the league at +500 before the season.
  • As we mentioned after their Week 1 loss to Kansas City, the Patriots are generally profitable coming off a loss. They’re now 34-11 against the spread following a loss since 2005.

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Danny Donahue

If John Mellencamp ever wins an Oscar, I am gonna be a very rich dude. @dannyjdonahue on Twitter

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