2017 NFL: Week 3 Betting Recap

2017 NFL: Week 3 Betting Recap

The best regular season week of football in recent memory has come to a close. Six games came down to the final seconds, including two in overtime, and even the Jets were able to pull out an impressive victory. Let’s take a look at how it played out for bettors.

  • It was a big week for underdogs, who went 10-6 against the spread. Dogs getting less than 30% of bets were a perfect 5-0 (HOU, WAS, CIN, CHI, BUF).

  • Dogs with spreads of 3.5 or higher also had a perfect weekend, going 8-0 ATS.
  • Home teams went 8-7 ATS, with home dogs going 5-3.
  • Underdogs playing division opponents were especially successful this week, going 4-1 ATS.
  • Contrarian bettors made up for a slightly subpar Week 2, as teams getting less than 50% of bets went 11-5 ATS. Less than 40% went 9-3, and less than 30% went 6-0.
  • The over had its first winning week of 2017, going 11-5 over the weekend. It was especially profitable on some of the lower totals, going 7-0 on totals of 42 or less.
  • On the moneyline, underdogs went just 6-10, but still ended up +1.5 units. The Bears provided the biggest moneyline win of the weekend at +265. They were also the least popular moneyline bet, getting just 28% of tickets.
  • In general, contrarian moneyline picks (less than 50%) went 10-6, stacking up 6.8 units.
  • 7 of the 9 winless teams entering this week covered their spread, with four of them earning their first win of the season.
  • The worst beat of the weekend was provided by the Lions, who were +3 vs. Atlanta at home. With Golden Tate being ruled down short of the goal line on the final play, the Falcons held on to a 30-26 victory over Detroit.

  • With there being so many last second winners, there were also plenty of tough moneyline beats this week. Houston would’ve paid out +760 if not for the Patriots’ late game winning drive. Cincinnati (+295) was up 21-7 at half in Green Bay, but ultimately lost in overtime 27-24. And the New York Football Giants (+205 at PHI) are now 0-3, after a last second 61-yard field goal from Eagles’ rookie Jake Elliott.
  • Tom Brady now leads the league in both passing touchdowns and yards. He was +400 to lead in TDs, and +450 to lead in yards prior to the season.
  • Stefon Diggs leads the league with 4 receiving TDs, though he was not listed at BetOnline prior to the season. The “field” was listed at +600.
  • On the defensive side, Chargers LB Jatavis Brown leads the NFL in tackles. He was listed at +6600 prior to the season when we highlighted him as a dark horse to be the league leader.
  • Current lines for some of next weeks matchups: CHI at GB (-7), CAR at NE (-8.5), PIT (-3) at BAL, NYG at TB (-3), OAK at DEN (-2.5)
Danny Donahue

If John Mellencamp ever wins an Oscar, I am gonna be a very rich dude. @dannyjdonahue on Twitter

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