2017 NFL Draft Prop Bets

The first round of the 2017 NFL draft commences Thursday, April 27th as teams search for the best young talent from the college ranks. Although fans from across the country will be scouring the internet looking for mock draft predictions for their favorite team, there is a large segment of the population who believe that these mock drafts are typically inaccurate and offer limited insight.

The Cleveland Browns have the first overall pick, and they have needs at almost every position — including quarterback. There’s some merit in taking the best player available, but it’s unclear how the Cleveland front office will approach this draft. Will they attempt to select a franchise quarterback? Will they take Miles Garrett — the consensus number one player in the draft? Will they trade down to address these depth concerns?

On Wednesday, January 25, the offshore sportsbook BetOnline posted odds on the number one selection in the upcoming NFL draft and they believe a defensive player (most likely Garrett) will be taken with the top pick. They also posted odds for the first quarterback, running back, and wide receiver to be drafted.

Number one overall pick

Player BetOnline (3/1) BetOnline (2/7) BetOnline (1/25)
Defensive player -375 -155 -125
Offensive player +275 +125 -105

1st quarterback selected

Player School BetOnline (3/1) BetOnline (2/7) BetOnline (1/25)
Mitch Trubisky North Carolina -115 +110 +125
Deshaun Watson Clemson -105 +150 +250
DeShone Kizer Notre Dame +750 +400 +225
Pat Mahomes Texas Tech +1600 +2000 +1600

1st running back selected

Player School BetOnline (3/1) BetOnline (2/7) BetOnline (1/25)
Leonard Fournette LSU -500 -450 -500
Dalvin Cook Florida State +375 +350 +400
Christian McCaffrey Stanford +1200 +2000 +2000
D'Onta Foreman Texas +3300 +2500 +2500

1st wide receiver selected

Player School BetOnline (3/1) BetOnline (2/7) BetOnline (1/25)
Mike Williams Clemson -200 -500 -500
Corey Davis Western Michigan +175 +375 +375
John Ross Washington +1200 +1200 +1200

I don’t think any available quarterback is worthy of the top pick, which is why I suggested there was value on a defensive player (-125) being selected first overall when this prop was first posted. Since that time, the odds of a defensive player being selected have moved from -125 to -375. It’s also important to note that the Browns have the 12th, 33rd, 51st and 65th pick which gives them ample ammo to add a quarterback later in the draft.

When this article was first published, there were several rumors circulating that the Browns could pursue Patriots backup quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo via trade. If that were to happen, it would become increasingly likely that Cleveland selects Myles Garrett or Jonathan Allen with their top pick. However, earlier today ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported that Garoppolo will likely remain in New England.

Although it’s unlikely Garoppolo will be traded, there are several signal-callers who could be available this offseason. That list includes Jay Cutler, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Mike Glennon, Colin Kaepernick, Tony Romo, Brock Osweiler and Tyrod Taylor. The Browns could also draft a lower ranked quarterback like Kizer or Mahomes.

There’s also been some movement for the first quarterback to be selected. Although North Carolina’s Mitch Trubisky remains the favorite, Clemson’s Deshaun Watson has seen his odds improve from +250 to -105 — leapfrogging Notre Dame’s Deshone Kizer in the process. There’s also been some movement for the first wide receiver to be selected, with Western Michigan’s Corey Davis moving from +375 to +175.

While we wait for this story to develop, make sure to track the latest odds and public betting trends on our free NFL odds page. Interested in following our winning picks? Sign up for a 4-day trial of our Pro subscription for just $49!

What do you think? Will the Browns take a quarterback with the first overall pick? Are oddsmakers overlooking any players? Leave your thoughts in the comment section below.

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David Solar

David Solar has been the Content Manager at Sports Insights for over four years. He specializes in sports betting analytics and has created several popular data-driven betting systems. He can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com or on twitter at @TheDavidSolar.

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