2017 NCAA Tournament Regional Odds

When the 2017 NCAA Tournament field of 68 was set, all four #1-seeds were the favorites to advance to the Final Four with UNC the most likely. The Tar Heels still have the best chance to win their region, but Villanova was bounced by Wisconsin. Along with Duke’s loss, the East Region has seen a huge shakeup.

EAST

Team March 20 Odds
(BetOnline)
March 13 Odds
(BetOnline)
#4 Florida +180 +1000
#3 Baylor +230 +1000
#8 Wisconsin +275 +1400
#7 South Carolina +525 +4000
#2 Duke N/A +175
#1 Villanova N/A +175
#5 Virginia N/A +1000
#6 SMU N/A +1200
#9 Virginia Tech N/A +4000
#11 Providence N/A +4000
#10 Marquettte N/A +4000
#11 USC N/A +4000
#12 UNC Wilmington N/A +10000
#13 E Tennessee State N/A +20000
#14 New Mexico State N/A +40000
#15 Troy N/A +100000
#16 Mount St. Mary's N/A +100000
#16 New Orleans N/A +100000

Our Bracket Simulator gave Villanova a 26.6% chance to win the region, or roughly +275 odds, but they were overvalued at +175 at BetOnline. Our Bracket Simulator did like UVA with a 13.8% chance to win the region (+625 odds) but BetOnline was offering +1000. Our simulations also liked Baylor and Florida, and were much lower on Duke than the oddsmakers. This mostly proved to be correct as Florida and Baylor are now the favorites while Nova and Duke were bounced early. South Carolina has made a huge push from +4000 to +525.

MIDWEST

Team March 20 Odds
(BetOnline)
March 13 Odds
(BetOnline)
#1 Kansas +125 +165
#7 Michigan +300 +1200
#3 Oregon +375 +450
#4 Purdue +425 +700
#5 Iowa State N/A +850
#16 UC Davis N/A +100000
#9 Michigan State N/A +2500
#11 Rhode Island N/A +2500
#2 Louisville N/A +325
#10 Oklahoma State N/A +2500
#8 Miami N/A +3300
#12 Nevada N/A +10000
#13 Vermont N/A +20000
#14 Iona N/A +50000
#16 NC Central N/A +50000
#15 Jacksonville State N/A +100000
#6 Creighton N/A +2500

Our Bracket Simulator felt Kansas was overrated here, giving them a 22.3% chance (+348 odds), but BetOnline listed their odds of winning the region at +165. The region is still tough but they’ve bettered their odds from +165 to +125. #7-seed Michigan now has better odds than #3-seed Oregon and #4-seed Purdue.

WEST

Team March 20 Odds
(BetOnline)
March 13 Odds
(BetOnline)
#2 Arizona +140 +180
#1 Gonzaga +160 +160
#4 West Virginia +350 +550
#11 Xavier +1200 +4000
#5 Notre Dame N/A +800
#7 Saint Mary's N/A +1400
#6 Maryland N/A +3300
#8 Northwestern N/A +4000
#16 South Dakota St N/A +100000
#3 Florida St N/A +600
#10 VCU N/A +5000
#12 Princeton N/A +20000
#13 Bucknell N/A +20000
#14 FGCU N/A +25000
#15 North Dakota N/A +50000
#9 Vanderbilt N/A +4000

Our Bracket Simulator continued to be high on Gonzaga, giving them a 47.1% chance (+112) to reach the Final Four. They were offered at +160 at BetOnline before the tourney, so there was some value on the Zags to win the region. The Simulator thought Notre Dame was very overrated while finding some slight value on West Virginia at +550. Gonzaga and West Virginia will meet in the Sweet 16, while Notre Dame was easily dispatched by the Mountaineers. However, Arizona has impressed and is now the +140 favorite to reach the Final Four from this region.

SOUTH

Team March 20 Odds
(BetOnline)
March 13 Odds
(BetOnline)
#1 UNC +110 +135
#2 Kentucky +300 +220
#3 UCLA +300 +400
#4 Butler +800 +900
#10 Wichita State N/A +1400
#6 Cincinnati N/A +2000
#5 Minnesota N/A +2200
#11 Kansas State N/A +5000
#9 Seton Hall N/A +5000
#12 Middle Tennessee St N/A +5000
#8 Arkansas N/A +6600
#11 Wake Forest N/A +6600
#7 Dayton N/A +6600
#13 Winthrop N/A +12500
#15 Northern Kentucky N/A +50000
#14 Kent State N/A +100000
#16 Texas Southern N/A +100000

Wichita State had some value at +1400 before the tournament but had to face a tough Kentucky team in the Round of 32. UNC still has the best odds to make the Final Four out of any team, but will have a very tough matchup against the winner of UCLA/Kentucky.

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Dan McGuire

Dan McGuire is the Operations Manager and soccer specialist at Sports Insights. He can be reached at dan.mcguire@sportsinsights.com.

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