UNC and Gonzaga both squeaked out wins in the Final Four and will meet in the 2017 National Championship Game on Monday night. The lookahead line during the week for a potential UNC/Gonzaga matchup was UNC -2 and that’s exactly where most sportsbooks opened around the market late Saturday night.
As you can see from the line graph at CRIS, UNC opened -2 and fell to -1.5 very quickly. The line increased back up to -2 by Sunday morning but has dropped all the way down to -1 by Sunday afternoon.
Now, was it sharps or the public moving the early line on Gonzaga? Since opening, Gonzaga has steadily been receiving about 60% of tickets and is at 57% at the time of publication. This isn’t too lopsided, and we’ve seen multiple line moves on Gonzaga since opening. Here’s the betting breakdown at each of our individual contributing sportsbooks:
Similar to South Carolina in the Final Four, it appears both sharps and the public are taking the underdog early on. The slight majority of early money has also come in on Gonzaga, and all Premium and Pro members get access to this crucial piece of information. You’ll definitely want to track the odds and %’s until game time for this one because they’ll surely be moving.
As for the total, BetOnline opened 151 on Saturday night and that didn’t last at all. It’s now up to 153.5 around most of the market. Both Final Four games somehow went over the closing total, and this has been the most profitable NCAA Tourney for betting overs that we’ve ever tracked. At the time of publication, 75% of tickets was on the Over, and public bettors have been reaping the benefits of these high-scoring games all tournament long.
Our simulations and forecasts have been high on Gonzaga the entire tournament and gives them a 63.4% chance to beat UNC in the title game. If you’re a believer in the Bulldogs, especially with those probabilities, you should love Gonzaga getting the points.