2017 NBA MVP Odds

Last season Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry averaged 30.1 points, 6.7 assists and 5.4 rebounds per game en route to the first unanimous NBA MVP in league history. This was the second consecutive MVP Award for Curry, who had the second-best odds (+650) before the start of the season.

The table below displays the past ten MVP winners along with their odds to win the award prior to the season. (Historical odds via SportsOddsHistory.com)

Year Player Team Odds
2015-16 Stephen Curry Golden State Warriors +650
2014-15 Stephen Curry Golden State Warriors +4000
2013-14 Kevin Durant Oklahoma City Thunder +300
2012-13 LeBron James Miami Heat +160
2011-12 LeBron James Miami Heat +250
2010-11 Derrick Rose Chicago Bulls +2500
2009-10 LeBron James Cleveland Cavaliers +275
2008-09 LeBron James Cleveland Cavaliers +250
2007-08 Kobe Bryant Los Angeles Lakers +500
2006-07 Dirk Nowitzki Dallas Mavericks +700

On Wednesday (7/6) afternoon, Irish bookmaker Paddy Power released odds for the 2016-17 NBA MVP with Stephen Curry (+250) listed as the favorite. That would be a remarkable achievement considering that only three players (Larry Bird, Wilt Chamberlain, and Bill Russell) have won the MVP in three consecutive seasons. The following day, 5Dimes posted MVP odds for seven players.

With Kevin Durant joining the Golden State Warriors, Russell Westbrook is now front and center as the face of the Oklahoma City Thunder. Based on his past performance with Durant out of the lineup, it was always safe to assume that Westbrook would post an impressive stat line this season.

The table below displays Westbrook’s statistics with and without Kevin Durant in the lineup entering the 2016-17 season.

Westbrook Games MPG PPG RPG APG TO FG FGA FG%
With Durant 526 33.9 20.7 5.4 7.5 3.6 7.3 16.7 43.7
Without Durant 61 34.9 28.0 7.1 8.4 4.7 9.4 22.5 41.9

Last season Westbrook nearly averaged a triple-double with 23.5 points, 10.4 assists and 7.8 rebounds per game, and oddsmakers safely assumed that his usage rate and output would increase dramatically without Durant in the fold. That explained why Westbrook opened with the second-best odds of winning the MVP Award.

It’s also worth noting that after Westbrook signed his extension with the Thunder, his odds of winning the MVP Award improved from +410 to +340 at 5Dimes. Similarly, his odds of winning the scoring title jumped from +150 to +105. This movement caused Westbrook to leapfrog Curry as the favorite to win the MVP Award.

This award quickly became a two-man race between James Harden and Russell Westbrook, and there has been constant back-and-forth throughout the season. Stephen Curry, who opened as the MVP favorite at Paddy Power, was surpassed by teammate Kevin Durant shortly after the season got underway.

In the 1961–62 season, Oscar Robertson became the first and only player in NBA history to average a triple-double for an entire season, with 30.8 points, 12.5 rebounds, and 11.4 assists. At the time of publication, Westbrook was averaging a triple double with 31.9 PPG, 10.7 RPG, and 10.7 APG. Despite those impressive stats, Harden (29.3 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 11.3 APG) jumped Westbrook as the MVP favorite back in mid-January.

In recent weeks, Westbrook has re-emerged as the MVP front runner. Harden was still the favorite (-155) at BetOnline in late March and, although they have taken their MVP odds off the board, Westbrook is currently listed as the odds-on favorites (-700) at 5Dimes. One of the biggest line moves happened back on March 30th after Westbrook tallied 57 points, 13 rebounds and 11 assists in a win over the Orlando Magic. That was the most points scored in a triple-double in NBA history.

The table below compares the latest MVP odds at 5Dimes, BetOnline, Bovada, and Paddy Power. We will update this table as new information becomes available.

Player 5Dimes (4/10) Bookmaker (4/4) BetOnline (3/23) BetOnline (2/28) BetOnline (2/14) Paddy Power (2/6) Paddy Power (1/11) Bovada (1/5) Paddy Power (12/20) Paddy Power (11/29) Paddy Power (11/9) 5Dimes (10/26) 5Dimes (10/11) 5Dimes (8/17) 5Dimes (7/7) Paddy Power (7/6)
Russell Westbrook -700 -350 +110 +135 +135 +140 +140 +100 +110 +200 +200 +350 +340 +340 +410 +300
Field +434 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Kawhi Leonard N/A +4053 +500 +1600 +1600 +1200 +1200 +900 +750 +600 +600 +650 +1100 +1550 +1550 +1400
Marc Gasol N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +27500 N/A N/A N/A N/A +20000 +15500 N/A N/A N/A
Kevin Durant N/A +7000 N/A +1400 +900 +850 +850 +1100 +650 +650 +650 +950 +900 +775 +825 +700
Isaiah Thomas N/A +7500 +1000 +450 +1600 +6000 +15000 +10000 +15000 +9000 +9000 +8000 +6000 +5250 +5250 +5000
Stephen Curry N/A N/A +4000 +4000 +4000 +6000 +2500 +2200 +1400 +1300 +700 +500 +400 +335 +330 +250
Giannis Antetokounmpo N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +9000 +4500 +8000 +5000 +5000 +4000 +5000 +5000 +3500 +3500 +3300
Anthony Davis N/A N/A N/A +10000 +10000 +9000 +3500 +3000 +2500 +2200 +1100 +1650 +1300 +1250 +1250 +1200
DeMar DeRozan N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +15000 +9000 +5000 +9000 +3300 +3300 +15000 +8000 +7000 +7000 +6600
DeMarcus Cousins N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +15000 +9000 +15000 +8000 +6600 +5000 +4000 +3250 +3250 +3250 +3000
Damian Lillard N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +17500 +5000 +6600 +3500 +2000 +800 +1250 +3300 +2600 +2750 +2500
Paul George N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +50000 +9000 N/A +5000 +5000 +5000 +2000 +2200 +2150 +2150 +2000
Jimmy Butler N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +50000 +9000 +8000 +6600 +6600 +9000 +15000 +10000 +10000 +10000 +9000
Kyle Lowry N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +15000 +10000 +15000 +15000 +9000 +12500 +8000 +5250 +5250 +5000
Al Horford N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +20000 +25000 N/A N/A N/A
Gordon Hayward N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +27500 N/A +27500 +17500 +15000 +17500 +20000 +17500 +17500 +15000
Klay Thompson N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +15000 N/A +15000 +15000 +10000 +12500 +12500 N/A N/A N/A
Kyrie Irving N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +17500 N/A +15000 +9000 +3000 +4500 +3500 +3250 +3250 +3000
Karl Anthony Towns N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +17500 N/A +6600 +6600 +6600 +2500 +4500 +4250 +4250 +4000
Draymond Green N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +17500 N/A +15000 +15000 +10000 +5000 +5000 +4250 +4250 +4000
Blake Griffin N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +27500 N/A +6000 +3300 +4000 +3000 +3100 +2150 +2150 +2000
Chris Paul N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +9000 +5000 +3500 +2200 +6600 +4000 +4000 +3250 +3250 +3000
James Harden N/A +200 -155 -120 -130 -110 -110 +160 +333 +275 +350 +800 +950 +1550 +1550 +1400
LeBron James N/A +5000 +1000 +900 +900 +1100 +800 +550 +450 +450 +800 +450 +450 +450 +525 +450
John Wall N/A N/A +5000 +4000 +4000 N/A +15000 +15000 +15000 +10000 +8000 +8000 +5500 +4250 +4250 +4000
Dwyane Wade N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +50000 N/A +27500 +17500 +15000 +15000 +10000 +5250 +5250 +5000
Kristaps Porzingis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +50000 N/A +27500 +27500 +27500 +25000 +30000 +30000 +30000 +27500
Carmelo Anthony N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +50000 N/A +27500 +17500 +6600 +5000 +4000 +3250 +3250 +3000
Derrick Rose N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +50000 N/A +27500 +27500 +15000 +20000 +15000 +17500 +17500 +15000
Bradley Beal N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +50000 N/A +27500 +27500 +27500 +20000 +15500 +12500 +12500 +10000
Andrew Wiggins N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +50000 N/A +27500 +17500 +15000 +15000 +12500 +12500 +12500 +10000
Devin Booker N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +50000 +27500 +17500 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Jeff Teague N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +25000 +25000 N/A N/A N/A
Hassan Whiteside N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +50000 +17500 +10000 +10000 +8500 +8500 +10000 +9000
LaMarcus Aldridge N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +50000 +17500 +9000 +8000 +6600 +5250 +5250 +5000
Andre Drummond N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +50000 +27500 +15000 +15000 +15000 +12500 +12500 +10000
Brandon Ingram N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +50000 +50000 +27500 +50000 +30000 +30000 +30000 +27500
Dirk Nowitzki N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +50000 +50000 +27500 +35000 +32500 +30000 +30000 +27500
Dwight Howard N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +50000 +27500 +17500 +20000 +20000 +20000 +20000 +17500
Mike Conley N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +20000 +25000 N/A N/A N/A
Tony Parker N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +25000 +15500 N/A N/A N/A
Paul Millsap N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +15000 +15000 N/A N/A N/A
Ben Simmons N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +35000 +30000 +30000 +30000 +27500
Kevin Love N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +50000 N/A +27500 +27500 +27500 +25000 +20000 +17500 +17500 +15000
Kemba Walker N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A +27500 N/A +17500 +9000 N/A +20000 +25000 N/A N/A N/A

The section below was originally published on July 7, 2016.

The most interesting takeaway is that six of the top seven MVP candidates reside in the Western Conference. Personally, I think that the Warriors will easily win the Western Conference but Curry and Durant will split the votes. For that reason, there could be some value on LeBron James.

The Westgate Superbook lists the Cleveland Cavaliers as -400 favorites to win the Eastern Conference, and the MVP Award has typically been awarded to the best player for the top-seeded playoff team. Considering that LeBron finally brought a championship to Cleveland yet most of the off-season discussion has centered on Kevin Durant’s decision to join the Warriors, I believe King James will be extra motivated this season.

Last year LeBron was +250 to win the MVP before the start of the season, which makes those +525 odds look mighty tasty. Eight of the past ten award winners opened the season listed at +700 or lower, which also bodes well for the Finals MVP.

Every member of the Warriors should see their numbers dip slightly with the addition of Durant, whereas the Cavaliers will return essentially the same core minus Matthew Dellavedova. Quite frankly, I think Kevin Durant aided James’ quest to win his fifth NBA Most Valuable Player award.

If you’re looking for longer odds and a greater potential payout, Damian Lillard is an intriguing option at +2750. Last season the Weber State product averaged 25.1 points and 6.8 assists per game while helping the Blazers defy expectations with 44 regular season wins and a fifth-place finish in the Western Conference. Assuming he continues to improve and Portland takes another step forward, Lillard could be a viable MVP candidate.

Which players do you think are offering value? Can Stephen Curry win for his third consecutive season? What type of numbers can we expect from Kevin Durant? Please leave your thoughts in the comment section below.

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David Solar

David Solar is the Content Manager at Sports Insights. He specializes in sports betting analytics and creating data-driven betting systems. He can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com or on twitter at @TheDavidSolar.

44 Comments Permalink
44 comments on “2017 NBA MVP Odds
  1. I think LeBron sorta coasts this upcoming season since the East is so week, saving himself for the playoffs. Obviously, if LeBron wants the MVP he will get it, especially with all the good will he has now.

    But as it stands this would be my Top 5 Favorites for the 2016-17 MVP:

    1. Russell Westbrook (he will be motivated, I think they’ll still be a top 7 seed, and might average close to a triple double. 32/8/8?)

    2. Paul George (more than a full year recovered from his horrific leg injury. He really came on in the Raptors series. I see the Pacers being a top 3 seed)

    3. LeBron James

    4. Kawhi Leonard (Duncan retires, he is fully the FACE of the franchise, his offense improves a bit, and the Spurs are a top 2 seed)

    5. Chris Paul (Clippers vie for the 2 seed with Blake Griffin back and he gets the sympathy vote for having never won an MVP)

    I think the Warriors players cancel themselves out unless there is a major injury to Curry or Durant and the other one picks up the slack.

    • Well you where right about either curry or Durant winning. Honestly I am I HUGE Warriors fan and Curry fan but I agree, we are playing lazy and none of our players deserve MVP unless we step up our game. I am against Levron James, never liked him, never will but honestly he does deserve MVP because he is a great player. Not clean but definitely can get the ball in the basket.

    • Leaving Curry out of being a “candidate” is preposterous and political Kevin Durant’s success has been extremely related to Curry’s ability to incorporate Durant with excellence! Steph’s skill helps the warriors to ” remain ” in 1st place!!!!

  2. Great post and spot on. LBJ represents tons of value and he is more rested than most anyone understands…still at the peak of his prime. Durant, Curry & Co are a bunch of “nice guys”; LeBron tries to be as well, to the point it may be a detriment.

    In order to stay peek and “fresh”, LeBron may sit a bit more this year to keep his playoff self tip-top – and for this reason I say don’t go sleeping on Kyrie Irving. Kyrie has won an MVP in the All-Star game with LeBron as a teammate. He will carry the garbage-time load while LeBron gives his body its due rest over the course of the season.

    But I got another one for you, speaking of players who are “nice guys”…the nice guy is Pao, and the “bad boy” (i.e. well-positioned to take over) is LaMarcus Aldridge. His MVP value is the best in the league, and when you consider the respect he gave TIMMY and Co his first year shows he has earned his spot with POP and it is HIS team now…not Parker’s. In fact, Parker will have a bit of a re-surgence by simply handing the ball off to him. Pay will do the same. LA will be wide open in James Worthy range to knock em down all season long. Duran and Curry will cancel each other out, while Aldridge is all day/all night.

    Listening to myself, I wish I could drop the load on him right now, because when you look at the number of games they won last year (close to an NBA record in their own right), Aldridge is primed to possibly break the NBA scoring record. Write that “stuff” down..you can buy e a drink when it’s done. Peace.

  3. all of yall idots saying lbj and curry and george or davis are a bunch of idiots look at James harden this guy is putting up crazy numbers every night and leads the league with assist. if you think any one else is getting it ur wrong

  4. This is James Harden’s award as long as he stays healthy and Rockets continue to win. Feel like this article basically ignored him, so no credibility. Points, asst, and he is rebounding. Much improved on his defense, 3rd best record in the league, end of story.

    • Wrong, with the numbers that Westbrook and Harden have been putting up, there is no chance that Curry will win the MVP. Westbrook carried his team to the playoffs with great numbers and 42 Triple Doubles. Harden has a good team, but still put up amazing numbers and 22 Triple Doubles. What has Curry accomplished this year to be the league MVP?

  5. LeBron or James Harden no doubt. Curry or Durant dont stand a chance so they basically cancel each other out, and westbrook doesn’t have the team record to win it.

    • you obviosly aint been sein none of russ’s triple doubles watever team your fo they prob aint have another member leave them then the other guy steps up and ha 32 triple doubls, think bout datt

  6. Russ westbrook should win #1 bc he has been the underdawg for the thunder and plus, wat about his triple doubles for the season?? he totally deserves it, not only bc hes never had it, but because he is doing great. #2, lebron, aka da king. king james is one of the ranked best in the nba right now for real. #3 stephen. hes done so much, but the fair weather fans aint goin for him no more bc everybodys goin for rockets bc of their wins this season, which is totally stupid but anyways, hes an all around player. hes a good dude, good player, on and off court. #4………harden ion think really deserves it bc he just needs some more work, maybe next year but he just aint got talked enouff about this year………seriously reconsider your options. russell westbrook has had a great season. and if he gets it itll be great.

    • Westbrook should not be mvp.. he can’t make his team better let alone get past the first round of the playoffs.. how is he even valuable, he just hogs the ball.? He is a beast
      . I wil k say that but his basketball is is not good he needs to learn how to get his teammates better and win games and stop focusing g on his numbers. That doesn’t win games.

      • I guess you haven’t watched Russell Westbrook enough to see that he gives his all ALL the time!Look how Harden just “gave up”! I guess you think he should get it!

  7. Anybody who doesn’t believe Russ isn’t deserving the MVP is smoking crack rolled in a cock sandwich. I mean what does he have to do to garner thé respect he is due…and if I hear anymore comments about Westbrook being a ball hog, then you must be a no talent as clown. Against thé magic Russ had 57 of thé thunders 114 points and led them to a 21 point comeback win. Oh and he had 57 pts (shooting >50%), 13Reb & 11Asst. I would take Westbrook being a ball hog with those numbers.

    Thé only other player that is close to having that kind of year is Harden. But even he is a full tier lower right. Because thé Thunder don’t exactly have a consistant another scorer so Russ is doing all this when each night thé opposing coach’s game plan is to double and trpile team him.

    Even Oscar Robertson said that there isn’t a pt guard in thé league that could win in 1-1 game.

    • He ain’t valuable.. he can’t win games all he does is hog all the stats.. he needs to make his teammates better.. that’s being valuable. How you gonna be a mvp but can barely make the playoffs.

    • James Harden makes history: 53 points, 16 rebounds, 17 assists in Rockets win

      The MVP arms race between Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook and Houston Rockets guard James Harden hit a new level Saturday night. A week after Westbrook put up a 45-point, 11-rebound, 11-assist performance, James Harden raised the bar to a whole new level. Harden’s performance vs. the Knicks in a 129-122 victory on New Year’s Eve:
      A career-high 53 points, 16 rebounds and 17 assists, which ties a career high.
      Unbelievable.
      Harden not only put up that mind-blowing stat line, but did so on 14-of-26 shooting and 9-of-16 from the 3-point line. It ties Isaiah Thomas for the fewest shots in a 50-point performance this season, and is tied for the fourth-least shots necessary to get to 53 in NBA history. Not only that, but no player has ever put up a 50-15-15 (let alone 53-16-17) since such statistics are traceable!, which is 1984 via Basketball Reference. And on top of everything else, Harden did so on the second night of a back-to-back.
      But harden only come close to westbrook my ass. Get off his dick for averaging 2 more rebound as a point gaurd. “But he averages triple double” thats great you know who else did Oscar Robertson. did he win mvp that year NO! It’s an amazing thing to accomplish yes but if you’re teams not winning then the stats dont even matter. So now what? The thunder don’t have more wins than the rockets they didnt beat them in the playoffs. 4-1 damn near a sweep what MVP lets that happen? Think about all the other mvp candidates would they have lost 4-1 lets go through it. Bron- 1-3 to gs comeback no way they losin in 5. Khawi – look at the series 3- 2 there way against the rockets rn. Steph and kd arent going for that shit either. Now think about it. all of you unless you’re a rockets fan YOU thought we weren’t going to do anything this season. head coach issues, trades, and my def favorite is “no d james harden insults” which i might add he is much better on. people thinking it was stupid to put james at point. Getting mad because we got “injury prone players” like anderson and Gordon. What did gordon go on and do? Win the 3 point contest? Yeah he did and did so as 6th man. Who did klay say he was worried about? Everyone but Eric. But ig no one worried about the 6th seed championship winning team rockets either so. #rednation

  8. Is it even a question????? Russ without a doubt!!! Clutch, one man team, averaged a triple double, broke the record for most triple doubles in a season, leads the NBA in PPG, Second is APG, and is 6’3″ and averaging over 10 RPG. Don’t try to tell me that the Rockets are a one man team, cut they aren’t. They have a great coach who has the perfect team for his scheme. They are all shooters, which is why Harden has so many assists. They even have the # point contest winner as their 6th man!!!!! Russ is hands down, the MVP

  9. James Harden is way better than anybody that you compare him to. If he doesn’t win #MVP then i believe that it will be Russell Westbrook…

  10. Kawaii is totally deserving of the MVP! He puts up great numbers on offense while still being a team player and plays excellent defense. Your other guys have big numbers but don’t have mad D-skills. Also San Antonio has multiple good players so he gets these numbers in less time with the ball. Kawaii all the way!

    • Curry will NOT win the MVP. With the insane numbers that Westbrook and Harden put up, not including the fact that Curry has 4 stars to help him win, assures me that he won’t win the MVP this year.

  11. Russell Westbrook is the only deserving choice for MVP. Without him, OKC would have won 20-30 games and been a lottery team for draft, after loss of Durant. Westbrook not only put an entire team on his back to carry them to victory, he put a whole city on his back to bring back the pride Loud City has always had for its Thunder team.

  12. 87-88 mj 50wins mvp,worst team win’s mvp player in the NBA history
    BigO & Wilt lost when 60wins Bill Russell got mvp
    BigO win mvp when he won assit leader & more team win,whithout seasonTD

    Win〉indivudual stats

  13. Im a big kawhia leonard fan so im going for him. That bein said whoever said that shit about Aldridge is insane he aint the face of the spurs for $hi%. I honestly think there gonna go harden or westbrook but james is the best playerin the game now

  14. LeBron should do get the mvp. Not only has he played great ball but he’s so efficient and his field goal percentage is outrageous considering his shot totals per game, and he makes everyone he plays with better. No one else does that. Give him what he deservea. He gets criticized to much.

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