2017 NBA MVP Odds

Last season Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry averaged 30.1 points, 6.7 assists and 5.4 rebounds per game en route to the first unanimous NBA MVP in league history. This was the second consecutive MVP Award for Curry, who had the second-best odds (+650) before the start of the season.

The table below displays the past ten MVP winners along with their odds to win the award prior to the season. (Historical odds via SportsOddsHistory.com)

Year Player Team Odds
2015-16 Stephen Curry Golden State Warriors +650
2014-15 Stephen Curry Golden State Warriors +4000
2013-14 Kevin Durant Oklahoma City Thunder +300
2012-13 LeBron James Miami Heat +160
2011-12 LeBron James Miami Heat +250
2010-11 Derrick Rose Chicago Bulls +2500
2009-10 LeBron James Cleveland Cavaliers +275
2008-09 LeBron James Cleveland Cavaliers +250
2007-08 Kobe Bryant Los Angeles Lakers +500
2006-07 Dirk Nowitzki Dallas Mavericks +700

On Wednesday (7/6) afternoon, Irish bookmaker Paddy Power released odds for the 2016-17 NBA MVP with Stephen Curry (+250) listed as the favorite. That would be a remarkable achievement considering that only three players (Larry Bird, Wilt Chamberlain and Bill Russell) have won the MVP in three consecutive seasons. The following day, 5Dimes posted MVP odds for seven players.

With Kevin Durant joining the Golden State Warriors, Russell Westbrook is now front and center as the face of the Oklahoma City Thunder. Based on his past performance with Durant out of the lineup, it’s safe to assume that Westbrook will post an impressive stat line this season..

The table below displays Westbrook’s statistics with and without Kevin Durant in the lineup.

Westbrook Games MPG PPG RPG APG TO FG FGA FG%
With Durant 526 33.9 20.7 5.4 7.5 3.6 7.3 16.7 43.7
Without Durant 61 34.9 28.0 7.1 8.4 4.7 9.4 22.5 41.9

Last season Westbrook nearly averaged a triple-double with 23.5 points, 10.4 assists and 7.8 rebounds per game. It’s safe to assume that his scoring should increase dramatically now that he doesn’t have to share the ball with Durant, which explains why Westbrook opened with the second-best odds of winning the MVP Award.

It’s also worth noting that after Westbrook signed his extension with the Thunder, his odds of winning the MVP Award improved from +410 to +340 at 5Dimes. Similarly, his odds of winning the scoring title jumped from +150 to +105. This movement caused Westbrook to leapfrog Curry as the favorite to win the MVP Award.

After one month of action, there have been several players who saw their odds jump substantially including James Harden and Kawhi Leonard. Stephen Curry, who opened as the favorite at Paddy Power, has dropped from +250 to +1300 since July. It’s also worth noting that over the past two weeks, Chris Paul’s odds of winning the MVP Award have improved from 66/1 to 22/1 at Paddy Power.

The table below compares the latest MVP odds at 5Dimes and Paddy Power. We will update this table as new information becomes available.

Player Paddy Power (11/29) Paddy Power (11/9) 5Dimes (10/26) 5Dimes (10/11) 5Dimes (8/17) 5Dimes (7/7) Paddy Power (7/6)
Russell Westbrook +200 +200 +350 +340 +340 +410 +300
James Harden +275 +350 +800 +950 +1550 +1550 +1400
LeBron James +450 +800 +450 +450 +450 +525 +450
Kawhi Leonard +600 +600 +650 +1100 +1550 +1550 +1400
Kevin Durant +650 +650 +950 +900 +775 +825 +700
Stephen Curry +1300 +700 +500 +400 +335 +330 +250
Damian Lillard +2000 +800 +1250 +3300 +2600 +2750 +2500
Anthony Davis +2200 +1100 +1650 +1300 +1250 +1250 +1200
Chris Paul +2200 +6600 +4000 +4000 +3250 +3250 +3000
Blake Griffin +3300 +4000 +3000 +3100 +2150 +2150 +2000
DeMar DeRozan +3300 +3300 +15000 +8000 +7000 +7000 +6600
Giannis Antetokounmpo +5000 +4000 +5000 +5000 +3500 +3500 +3300
Paul George +5000 +5000 +2000 +2200 +2150 +2150 +2000
DeMarcus Cousins +6600 +5000 +4000 +3250 +3250 +3250 +3000
Karl Anthony Towns +6600 +6600 +2500 +4500 +4250 +4250 +4000
Jimmy Butler +6600 +9000 +15000 +10000 +10000 +10000 +9000
Kemba Walker +9000 N/A +20000 +25000 N/A N/A N/A
Kyrie Irving +9000 +3000 +4500 +3500 +3250 +3250 +3000
Isaiah Thomas +9000 +9000 +8000 +6000 +5250 +5250 +5000
John Wall +10000 +8000 +8000 +5500 +4250 +4250 +4000
Draymond Green +15000 +10000 +5000 +5000 +4250 +4250 +4000
Klay Thompson +15000 +10000 +12500 +12500 N/A N/A N/A
Kyle Lowry +15000 +9000 +12500 +8000 +5250 +5250 +5000
Hassan Whiteside +17500 +10000 +10000 +8500 +8500 +10000 +9000
Andrew Wiggins +17500 +15000 +15000 +12500 +12500 +12500 +10000
Dwyane Wade +17500 +15000 +15000 +10000 +5250 +5250 +5000
Gordon Hayward +17500 +15000 +17500 +20000 +17500 +17500 +15000
LaMarcus Aldridge +17500 +9000 +8000 +6600 +5250 +5250 +5000
Carmelo Anthony +17500 +6600 +5000 +4000 +3250 +3250 +3000
Derrick Rose +27500 +15000 +20000 +15000 +17500 +17500 +15000
Dwight Howard +27500 +17500 +20000 +20000 +20000 +20000 +17500
Devin Booker +27500 +17500 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Bradley Beal +27500 +27500 +20000 +15500 +12500 +12500 +10000
Kevin Love +27500 +27500 +25000 +20000 +17500 +17500 +15000
Kristaps Porzingis +27500 +27500 +25000 +30000 +30000 +30000 +27500
Andre Drummond +27500 +15000 +15000 +15000 +12500 +12500 +10000
Brandon Ingram +50000 +27500 +50000 +30000 +30000 +30000 +27500
Dirk Nowitzki +50000 +27500 +35000 +32500 +30000 +30000 +27500
Jeff Teague N/A N/A +25000 +25000 N/A N/A N/A
Tony Parker N/A N/A +25000 +15500 N/A N/A N/A
Paul Millsap N/A N/A +15000 +15000 N/A N/A N/A
Ben Simmons N/A N/A +35000 +30000 +30000 +30000 +27500
Al Horford N/A N/A +20000 +25000 N/A N/A N/A
Marc Gasol N/A N/A +20000 +15500 N/A N/A N/A
Mike Conley N/A N/A +20000 +25000 N/A N/A N/A

The section below was originally published on July 7, 2016

The most interesting takeaway is that six of the top seven MVP candidates reside in the Western Conference. Personally, I think that the Warriors will easily win the Western Conference but Curry and Durant will split the votes. For that reason, there could be some value on LeBron James.

The Westgate Superbook lists the Cleveland Cavaliers as -400 favorites to win the Eastern Conference, and the MVP Award has typically been awarded to the best player for the top-seeded playoff team. Considering that LeBron finally brought a championship to Cleveland yet most of the off-season discussion has centered on Kevin Durant’s decision to join the Warriors, I believe King James will be extra motivated this season.

Last year LeBron was +250 to win the MVP before the start of the season, which makes those +525 odds look mighty tasty. Eight of the past ten award winners opened the season listed at +700 or lower, which also bodes well for the Finals MVP.

Every member of the Warriors should see their numbers dip slightly with the addition of Durant, whereas the Cavaliers will return essentially the same core minus Matthew Dellavedova. Quite frankly, I think Kevin Durant aided James’ quest to win his fifth NBA Most Valuable Player award.

If you’re looking for longer odds and a greater potential payout, Damian Lillard is an intriguing option at +2750. Last season the Weber State product averaged 25.1 points and 6.8 assists per game while helping the Blazers defy expectations with 44 regular season wins and a fifth place finish in the Western Conference. Assuming he continues to improve and Portland takes another step forward, Lillard should be a viable MVP candidate.

Which players do you think are offering value? Can Stephen Curry win for his third consecutive season? What type of numbers can we expect from Kevin Durant? Please leave your thoughts in the comment section below.

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David Solar

David Solar has been the Content Manager at Sports Insights for over four years. He specializes in sports betting analytics and has created several popular data-driven betting systems. He can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com or on twitter at @TheDavidSolar.

4 Comments Permalink
4 comments on “2017 NBA MVP Odds
  1. I think LeBron sorta coasts this upcoming season since the East is so week, saving himself for the playoffs. Obviously, if LeBron wants the MVP he will get it, especially with all the good will he has now.

    But as it stands this would be my Top 5 Favorites for the 2016-17 MVP:

    1. Russell Westbrook (he will be motivated, I think they’ll still be a top 7 seed, and might average close to a triple double. 32/8/8?)

    2. Paul George (more than a full year recovered from his horrific leg injury. He really came on in the Raptors series. I see the Pacers being a top 3 seed)

    3. LeBron James

    4. Kawhi Leonard (Duncan retires, he is fully the FACE of the franchise, his offense improves a bit, and the Spurs are a top 2 seed)

    5. Chris Paul (Clippers vie for the 2 seed with Blake Griffin back and he gets the sympathy vote for having never won an MVP)

    I think the Warriors players cancel themselves out unless there is a major injury to Curry or Durant and the other one picks up the slack.

  2. Great post and spot on. LBJ represents tons of value and he is more rested than most anyone understands…still at the peak of his prime. Durant, Curry & Co are a bunch of “nice guys”; LeBron tries to be as well, to the point it may be a detriment.

    In order to stay peek and “fresh”, LeBron may sit a bit more this year to keep his playoff self tip-top – and for this reason I say don’t go sleeping on Kyrie Irving. Kyrie has won an MVP in the All-Star game with LeBron as a teammate. He will carry the garbage-time load while LeBron gives his body its due rest over the course of the season.

    But I got another one for you, speaking of players who are “nice guys”…the nice guy is Pao, and the “bad boy” (i.e. well-positioned to take over) is LaMarcus Aldridge. His MVP value is the best in the league, and when you consider the respect he gave TIMMY and Co his first year shows he has earned his spot with POP and it is HIS team now…not Parker’s. In fact, Parker will have a bit of a re-surgence by simply handing the ball off to him. Pay will do the same. LA will be wide open in James Worthy range to knock em down all season long. Duran and Curry will cancel each other out, while Aldridge is all day/all night.

    Listening to myself, I wish I could drop the load on him right now, because when you look at the number of games they won last year (close to an NBA record in their own right), Aldridge is primed to possibly break the NBA scoring record. Write that “stuff” down..you can buy e a drink when it’s done. Peace.

    • anyone who thinks Aldridge is in line to break the scoring record is a complete fucking retard who should be barred from commenting on basketball. Seriously. You must be the worst gambler I have ever seen. What the fuck kind of assessment is that.

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