2017-18 Premier League Week 8 Betting Preview
Another International Break meant no EPL games last weekend, but in Week 7 we saw Manchester City get a big road victory at Chelsea. Big favorites Arsenal, Tottenham, and Manchester United all won, while Liverpool drew at Newcastle. My value play on West Brom lost in the final minutes of stoppage time when Watford scored to level the game 2-2, but still a solid start to the season.
Week 7 Results:
Home 4 of 10 (-2.74 units)
Away 3 of 10 (-0.09 units)
Draw 3 of 10 (+0.97 units)
Season Results:
Home 29 of 70 (-13.15 units)
Away 24 of 70 (+4.70 units)
Draw 17 of 70 (+5.61 units)
Season Biggest Payouts:
Burnley (+1125) at Chelsea in Week 1
Tottenham/Swansea Draw (+695) in Week 5
Tottenham/Burnley Draw (+625) in Week 3
It’s been a while, so here are the updated odds to win the Premier League:
Man City -142
Man Utd +276
Chelsea +756
Tottenham +1419
Arsenal +3233
Liverpool +3402
Week 8 wastes no time to show off its marquee matchup as Liverpool host Manchester United in the opening game of the week (nice 4:30 am start for those on the West Coast). Last year, Manchester United were a draw bettor’s dream (15 of 38 matches), but have only drawn once so far this season. Liverpool opened as the slight +152 favorites in this one but have drifted out to +172 as they’re getting just a small portion of public betting tickets. The huge majority of bets has come in on Man United, moving their odds from +186 to +175, which doesn’t come as a huge surprise since they’re usually well-supported. If this game wasn’t being played after an International Break, I’d probably be laying off, but I do think there’s value on the home side now. This match is attracting way more tickets than any other match, so the public is actually creating value on the other side due to the big line movement. Take Liverpool +172 to win at home and shake up the EPL table a bit.
The other value play I like for this weekend is the draw between Huddersfield and Swansea at +220 odds. Lots of factors hit the spot for me here: low total of just 2 goals, public action avoiding the draw, reverse-line movement on the draw, etc. Swansea are getting nearly 70% of moneyline tickets to win at home but the line has barely moved in their favor, so we’ve clearly seen some sharp money hit the draw here.
Most Lopsided: 79% on Chelsea (-229), 76% on Man United (+175)
Biggest Line Moves: West Ham (+202 to +184), Brighton (+261 to +217)
Value Plays (7-6 record, +6.72 units): Liverpool +172, Swansea/Huddersfield Draw +220
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