2017-18 Premier League Week 5 Betting Preview

2017-18 Premier League Week 5 Betting Preview

Week 4 was great for Manchester City, as they beat Liverpool 5-0 and gained in the standings on Manchester United who drew 2-2 at Stoke City. Man City are now +120 favorites to win the title, followed by Man Utd +275, Chelsea +450, and Tottenham +1000. Our value play was on Manchester City, so that was also a success, and plays have now earned +5.22 units on the young season.

Week 4 Results:
Home 5 of 10 (+0.17 units)
Away 4 of 10 (+2.35 units)
Draw 1 of 10 (-5.58 units)

Week 4 Biggest Payouts:
Watford +438 at Southampton
Stoke/Man Utd Draw +342

Season Results:
Home 18 of 40 (-3.19 units)
Away 14 of 40 (+10.57 units)
Draw 8 of 40 (-3.71 units)

Season Biggest Payouts:
Burnley (opened +1450, closed +1125) at Chelsea in Week 1
Tottenham/Burnley Draw (opened +514, closed +625) in Week 3
Everton/Man City Draw (opened +466, closed +515) in Week 2
Watford (closed +438) at Southampton in Week 4

The first value play for the weekend will be the draw between West Brom and West Ham at +225 odds. I was surprised to see the public taking a side in this game with very low support on the draw. Historically, draws in this moneyline range have been highly profitable and I love the low total of 2 goals. West Ham finally got a win last week while West Brom slipped up to their first loss at Brighton, so I see these teams playing to a stalemate on Saturday.

The other value play for this weekend will be the draw between Stoke City and Newcastle at +227 odds. There’s actually some pretty decent support on the draw in this game, with the line moving from +233 to +223 at Pinnacle, but bettors can shop the market and find some higher lines like +227. This game opened with another low total of 2 goals but has been bumped up to 2.5 with juice on the under. I was high on Newcastle before the season but I don’t feel confident in them winning three straight games, especially after Stoke have had three solid weeks in a row themselves. I expect a tight match in this one and a 1-1 finish.

The marquee matchup of the weekend is Chelsea hosting Arsenal, with Chelsea getting nearly 60% of bets at -125 odds. This is pretty standard and right on par with their win expectancy. +375 is a pretty enticing line on Arsenal, but they haven’t exactly shown up for big games in the past, so I’d lay off.

Most Lopsided: 89% on Man City (-284) at Watford, 76% on Man Utd (-286) vs. Everton

Biggest Line Moves: Crystal Palace (+232 to +196) vs. Southampton, Watford (+1046 to +883) vs. Man City

Value Plays (5-3 record, +5.22 units, 65% ROI): West Brom/West Ham Draw +225, Newcastle/Stoke Draw +227

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Dan McGuire

Dan McGuire is the Operations Manager and soccer specialist at Sports Insights. You can find him on Twitter (@ArsenalDMC) and he can be reached directly at dan.mcguire@actionnetwork.com.

1 Comment
  • James
    09/17/2017 at 12:24 am

    50 bucks is well worth the NBC gold package for all the British weekday premier league shows to go along with the extra matches. Also alot of fun rooting for the most boring match possible between West Brom/ West Ham. Great week again Dan.

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