2017-18 Premier League Week 5 Betting Preview
Week 4 was great for Manchester City, as they beat Liverpool 5-0 and gained in the standings on Manchester United who drew 2-2 at Stoke City. Man City are now +120 favorites to win the title, followed by Man Utd +275, Chelsea +450, and Tottenham +1000. Our value play was on Manchester City, so that was also a success, and plays have now earned +5.22 units on the young season.
Week 4 Results:
Home 5 of 10 (+0.17 units)
Away 4 of 10 (+2.35 units)
Draw 1 of 10 (-5.58 units)
Week 4 Biggest Payouts:
Watford +438 at Southampton
Stoke/Man Utd Draw +342
Home 18 of 40 (-3.19 units)
Away 14 of 40 (+10.57 units)
Draw 8 of 40 (-3.71 units)
Season Biggest Payouts:
Burnley (opened +1450, closed +1125) at Chelsea in Week 1
Tottenham/Burnley Draw (opened +514, closed +625) in Week 3
Everton/Man City Draw (opened +466, closed +515) in Week 2
Watford (closed +438) at Southampton in Week 4
The first value play for the weekend will be the draw between West Brom and West Ham at +225 odds. I was surprised to see the public taking a side in this game with very low support on the draw. Historically, draws in this moneyline range have been highly profitable and I love the low total of 2 goals. West Ham finally got a win last week while West Brom slipped up to their first loss at Brighton, so I see these teams playing to a stalemate on Saturday.
The other value play for this weekend will be the draw between Stoke City and Newcastle at +227 odds. There’s actually some pretty decent support on the draw in this game, with the line moving from +233 to +223 at Pinnacle, but bettors can shop the market and find some higher lines like +227. This game opened with another low total of 2 goals but has been bumped up to 2.5 with juice on the under. I was high on Newcastle before the season but I don’t feel confident in them winning three straight games, especially after Stoke have had three solid weeks in a row themselves. I expect a tight match in this one and a 1-1 finish.
The marquee matchup of the weekend is Chelsea hosting Arsenal, with Chelsea getting nearly 60% of bets at -125 odds. This is pretty standard and right on par with their win expectancy. +375 is a pretty enticing line on Arsenal, but they haven’t exactly shown up for big games in the past, so I’d lay off.
Most Lopsided: 89% on Man City (-284) at Watford, 76% on Man Utd (-286) vs. Everton
Biggest Line Moves: Crystal Palace (+232 to +196) vs. Southampton, Watford (+1046 to +883) vs. Man City
Value Plays (5-3 record, +5.22 units, 65% ROI): West Brom/West Ham Draw +225, Newcastle/Stoke Draw +227
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